Sign Somebody, Dammit!

Dave Paisley

It's been over a month since I took a look at the free agent market, and to be honest, this has been the slowest developing offseason in recent memory. It seems that most teams are waiting for the Alex Rodriguez shoe (a Gucci, no doubt) to drop before deciding how to spend their dollars. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the teams that figure they have a shot at A-Rod aren't going to commit dollars elsewhere until they know whether they were successful in the A-Rod sweepstakes.

Second, the agents of all the other top free agents are obviously going to wait until they see how much moolah Rodriguez can command before setting their own prices. That is, of course, if they figure that A-Rod will take salaries upmarket. Those that can get a sweet deal right now, or believe that Rodriguez won't be able to sign for outrageous money are already looking to make deals.

It also seems that the hitting and pitching markets are somewhat segregated. Most teams have already decided that they need either pitching or hitting, but not both, and are pursuing players accordingly. The Yankees are an interesting case, though. They really do need both. After Pettitte, Clemens and Hernandez, their pitching is old and suspect (maybe even the last two of those, too), so they went out and got Mussina. On the offensive front, they appear to have settled for an aging Paul O'Neill rather than chasing down Manny Ramirez, although I'm sure the latter remains an option. The Yanks are also different in that they would rather set the pace rather than watch the other teams wheel and deal and then possibly get left with crumbs.

With all that in mind, here's a look at the free agent starting pitching situation right now. First, here are what I'll nominally call the top few:

Name	Team	ERA 2000	ERA Pre-2K	Option	Comments
Mike Mussina	Bal	3.79	3.50	po	Signed with Yanks for $88.5M over 6 years
Mike Hampton	NYM	3.14	3.50		Still mulling his options.
Denny Neagle	NYY	4.52	3.82		About to sign with the Rockies, by all accounts.
Rick Reed	NYM	4.11	3.90		Mets can't afford to lose three from their rotation.
Bobby J. Jones	NYM	5.06	4.00		I'll say it again. The Mets can't afford to lose three from their rotation.
Darren Dreifort	LA	4.16	4.33		Looking for big money.

Once Hampton signs, I expect the rest of this bunch will fall pretty quickly as the dust settles. As noted, if the Mets don't retain Hampton (and I'm betting they don't) I'd expect them to be very aggressive at keeping Jones and Reed.

It's interesting that Darren Dreifort is in this group looking for big bucks, as he was picked second in the 1993 draft behind Alex Rodriguez. As for Denny Neagle signing in Colorado -- good luck, dude, you'll need it. Although maybe that's not a bad strategy: sign your last major free agent contract there as you don't have to worry about your stats when you're about to hang 'em up.

Next up there's the middle rank guys, all of whom are still available:

Name	Team	ERA 2000	ERA Pre-2K	Option	Comments
Kevin Appier	Oak	4.52	3.54
Ismael Valdes	LA	5.64	3.38
Andy Ashby	Atl	4.92	3.98
Tim Wakefield	Bos	5.48	4.34	co
Pat Hentgen	StL	4.72	4.14	co	Club declined option
Jason Bere	Cle	5.47	5.23
Steve Trachsel	Tor	4.80	4.35
Mark Gardner	SF	4.05	4.56
Frank Castillo	Tor	3.59	4.63
John Burkett	Atl	4.89	4.31

I wasn't sure where to put Appier, but I slipped him down here because he didn't really pitch that well last year and he is getting a bit long in the tooth. His ace days are now long gone, but he'll make a nice present for some team. Ismael Valdes could have been a top-tier free agent but for a couple of pretty awful seasons. To think he was almost traded to Seattle for Randy Johnson. I still expect him to rebound in the right situation, which definitely won't be LA. Nor the Cubs, I guess.

Ashby, Wakefield, Hentgen, Bere, I expect a couple of those guys to be unexpectedly good this coming season, and two to be bad, but without a crystal ball I have no idea which will be which. I'd probably pick Ashby and Hentgen if forced. Moving on, I've been a closet Steve Trachsel fan for a while. The guy has typically got poor run support on bad teams and suffers through terrible W-L records. Sure, he gets shelled once in a while, but then so does every pitcher, even St. Greg. In the right situation and even average run support, Trachsel could be the best value for money in this class.

Nobody seems to be jumping at Gardner and Castillo, but I'd be willing to sign 'em up early for reasonable dollars. John Burkett I'd steer clear of.

Finally, here's the dregs...Either just bad pitchers or good pitchers who've hit hard times:

Name	Team	ERA 2000	ERA Pre-2K	Option	Comments
Tim Belcher	Ana	6.86	4.12	co	Club declined option, and no wonder...
Kent Bottenfield	Phi	5.40	4.19
Hideo Nomo	Det	4.74	3.82	co	Club declined option
Omar Olivares	Oak	6.75	4.36	po
Mark Petkovsek	Ana	4.22	4.53
Willie Blair	Det	4.88	4.94
Jeff Fassero	Bos	4.78	3.81
Ramon Martinez	Bos	6.13	3.44	co
David Cone	NYY	6.91	3.19
Steve Avery	Atl	-	4.17
Cal Eldred	ChA	4.58	4.51

Well, we all knew Kent Bottenfield wasn't really that ace pitcher the Angels thought they were getting last year, right? He was the poster boy for massive run support and yet all those "baseball people" couldn't see it for what it was. And he sucked pretty badly last season. Good luck to whoever risks a buck on him. After that we have a parade of the mediocre, with Nomo, Belcher, Olivares, Petkovsek and Blair. Let's just say none of them will be on a World Series team next year.

And then bringing up the rear we have the M*A*S*H Corps. Ramon Martinez, David Cone, Steve Avery and Cal Eldred. Just get out the superglue, granddad, and we'll stick 'em back together again. I wouldn't be shocked to see one of this group make a successful comeback, but it's also likely that at least two of them will be retired by the end of the season.

Let's just hope we get something going over the winter meetings here, or our hot stoves will be running on fumes for the next month...

about the author

Dave Paisley has been toiling for years on his masterpiece: a mosaic illustrating the relative Total Average of every player in history. Offer your aircraft hangar for him to store it at drdjp@strikethree.com.