Bay Area Rapid Trading

Matt Bruce

The New York Yankees signed a pretty good pitcher and several teams courted a fantastic young shortstop. If you really think that's all there is to say about the 2000 offseason, then it's time to fill you in on some of the moves you may have missed.

Two weeks ago, the Chicago Cubs pulled off a pair of deals with the Bay Area's two rival franchises. Fans on the North Side now get to welcome Bill Mueller and Matt Stairs into the friendly confines. Unfortunately for the Cubbies, there's a reason why those two were available in the first place, much less why nobody is suddenly conceding a World Series appearance.

Bill Mueller, 1996-2000
Year	Games	R	RBI	HR	BB	OBP	SLG	AVG
1996	55	31	19	0	24	.401	.415	.330
1997	128	51	44	7	48	.369	.428	.292
1998	145	93	59	9	79	.383	.395	.294
1999	116	61	36	2	65	.388	.362	.290
2000	153	97	55	10	52	.333	.388	.268

Mueller's biggest problem is that he lost the ability draw a walk. Sure, his 20-point drop in batting average is also a concern. His lack of hits and lack of plate discipline led to a 50-point drop in on-base percentage, never a good thing for someone without any real power.

Fans of Mueller can point to his 97 runs scored as a sign of...something. Come to think of it, to score that many runs despite reaching base just a third of the time, says a lot more about the guys hitting behind you. Mueller spent the 2000 season batting second, just ahead of Barry Bonds. It makes sense: rather than walk Mueller to face Bonds and Kent, pitchers would actually challenge him with strikes.

The good news for Mueller is that he's going to a team whose coaches recently began to appreciate the value of patience at the plate. Many people credit Cub hitting coach Jeff Pentland for teaching Sosa not to swing at everything. Whether Mueller needs to take more pitches, or just do more with the strikes he gets, one thing's for certain: His Cub teammates won't be good enough for him to be a silent killer.

Matt Stairs, 1996-2000
Year	Games	R	RBI	HR	BB	OBP	SLG	AVG
1996	61	21	23	10	19	.367	.547	.277
1997	133	62	73	27	50	.386	.582	.298
1998	149	88	106	26	59	.370	.511	.294
1999	146	94	102	38	89	.366	.533	.258
2000	143	74	81	21	78	.333	.414	.227

As many times as he killed the Athletics last year, there is nothing silent about Matt Stairs. Built along the lines of Babe Ruth and Kirby Puckett, Stairs was a short, round, human-interest story, a late-blooming slugger who in 1999 started to hit like Jason Giambi. Or, if you prefer, the aliens that possessed John Jaha had cousins who possessed Stairs. Where Mueller seemed to lose his batting eye, Stairs lost his power stroke.

The Cubs get little upside in either of these players: Mueller is 29, Stairs 32. They do, however, get an interesting contrast. Mueller's defense almost singlehandedly kept his job last year. Since the grass at Wrigley Field is almost as high as at Pac Bell Park, he could continue to make highlight reel plays. In the best-case scenario, he rebounds to become a less handsome Mark Grace at the tougher of the two corner infield positions.

Stairs has never been accused of defensive prowess. His natural position is right field, but despite my morbid fascination with the outfield adventures of Stairs in right and Sammy Sosa in center, I can only assume that Stairs is the one to move. Maybe even to first base, where the contrast to Mark Grace could not be greater and the contrast to Frank Thomas could not be more withering.

As a hitter, Stairs is much like a left-handed Shane Andrews. Neither will ever win a batting title, though both should enjoy warm summer afternoons with the wind blowing out. The collective woes of Andrews and Willie Greene led the Cubs to acquire Mueller, while the bench presence of Russ Davis led the Giants to find Mueller expendable.

Despite my critique of Bill Mueller's plate discipline, I have all the more dread for the guy with the .309 career on-base percentage. Given Davis' infamous defensive problems in Seattle, and the Giants' lack of minor league prospects at the hot corner, Brian Sabean did no more than half the right job. He correctly identified the team's biggest problems (third base and bullpen), yet did nothing to solve either of them, unless Todd Worrell's brother singlehandedly saves San Francisco's middle relief.

Across the Bay, Billy Beane suddenly looks like a candidate for the genius label. In his two biggest offseason trades, Beane got rid of two overpaid problem players (Stairs, Randy Velarde) and somehow came back with two amazing pitching prospects.

Eric Ireland fell into the Cubs' lap after the Houston Astros faced a 40-man roster crunch; the fact that Chicago parlayed him into Matt Stairs tells you all you need to know about the Cubbies' talent evaluation skills. In 1999, Ireland was 10-7 with a 2.06 ERA in the Florida State League, including a perfect game. Last year at Double-A Round Rock he posted a 3.41 ERA (in a hitter's league), with 171 hits, 64 walks and 123 strikeouts in 179.2 innings. He turns 24 in March, and he now plays for the only organization in which he might be considered a little old.

Aaron Harang is a year younger than Ireland, and a year behind him, but in his last two pro seasons he put up some eye-popping numbers.

Aaron Harang, 1999-2000
Year	League	IP	H	BB	SO	W	L	ERA
1999	Appy	78.1	64	17	87	9	2	2.30
2000	FSL	157	128	50	136	13	5	3.32

Ask yourself: Would you rather have a guy like Harang, or a 38-year-old second baseman whose defense is among the most overrated in the league? While you think about it, consider that second base is, surprisingly, one of baseball's easiest positions to fill with journeyman talent. Suppose also that you have a good prospect at that position -- the A's have a great one in Jose Ortiz, and even the Rangers have a pretty good one in Jason Romano.

While the chattering classes wring their hands over the New York Yankees' unfair advantage in the next year or two, let me gnash my teeth over the disparity in GM skills that will have given the Athletics a decade's run atop the AL West. That is, of course, if they can keep their free agents, as the Bob Costas and Bud Selig types insist they won't. Then again, amazingly enough, being a successful baseball player requires more than being worshiped by Peter Gammons.

about the author

Matt Bruce often refers to himself as "John Jaha without power, but with better looks and driving skills." Ask your tricky traffic questions at mb@strikethree.com.