Caveat Emptor

Jason Michael Barker

"Buyer beware" -- it's an important phrase to keep in mind as the free agent signing season picks up in the next couple of weeks. Every year there are only so many quality free agents to go around, meaning some teams are going to be stuck with poor signings.

No team wants to sign a lemon, of course, but many end up doing just that through either ignorance, desperation or just plain bad luck. Last winter the Tampa Bay Devil Rays signed oft-injured Juan Guzman to a lucrative long-term contract, in the hopes that he could stay healthy and anchor their rotation. One and two-thirds innings and eight earned runs later, Guzman's season came to an end.

Perhaps unable to wait for my list, two of the players named here have already been signed to contracts -- Jose Valentin and Ellis Burks. The former re-signed with the White Sox, while the latter inked a new deal with the Cleveland Indians. I'll begin with Valentin and Burks, in the hopes that there's still time for their respective teams to reconsider the contracts.

Jose Valentin
The good news is that he's a power-hitting shortstop, having hit 25 homers last season and ten or more each of the past seven. He'll also take a walk now and then. He's strictly a platoon player, however, and is a switch-hitter in name only -- he hit just .215 versus lefties last year, with a .319 OBP. He's also brutal defensively, having made 36 errors at short last season and 22 the year prior in just 85 games despite good range and a strong arm. He'll turned 31 in October, and the White Sox are going to be disappointed if they expect him to repeat the career numbers he put up in 2000.

Ellis Burks
Known as DL-is in some circles, Burks signing with the Indians actually addresses some of the concerns I would have listed if I wrote this a week ago. By moving to the American League he'll be able to DH on occasion, reducing the wear and tear on his knees, both of which underwent surgery before the 1999 season. Playing on natural grass, as he did in San Francisco, will help as well. If the Indians don't push him too hard he should be fine, though a three-year contract for a guy who turned 36 in September and has averaged 120 games the past two seasons seems a bit much.

Juan Gonzalez
Remember when Gonzo turned down that big contract offer from the Tigers earlier in the year? He's now the forgotten man in free agency, with the likes of Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez hogging the spotlight. Gonzalez is going to get his money, but what will the team that pays him get? The Gonzalez who averaged 43 homers a season from 1996 to 1999, or the one who complained last season, hit 22 homers and had his season end early with a cranky back? He then missed a scheduled physical exam back (pun intended) in October.

Jeffrey Hammonds
Word on the street is that Hammonds is looking for $9M a year for three years. That seems a bit steep for a guy who has never played 125 games in a season, and is coming off a Coors-inflated season in which he hit .399/.465/.651 at home and .275/.325/.415 on the road. He also doesn't walk much, and you know how I feel about that. Overall, he is perhaps the most overrated player in this free agent class.

Cal Eldred
Teams interested in Eldred need to ask themselves how much they believe in the power of modern medicine. Once a top prospect with the Brewers, Eldred has been worked very hard in his career when he's been healthy. In 1993, his second full year in the bigs, he threw 258 innings including eight complete games. The next season he threw 179 innings and six complete games in a strike-shortened season. Since then he's been healthy for a full season exactly once, and had be shut down late last season with his reoccurring elbow problem. He's a bad four-year deal waiting to happen.

Darren Dreifort
Another injury-prone pitcher, Dreifort seems to struggle both late in the season and late in the year. He was a reliever in college and his first three years in the majors, and as a starter he's never thrown 200 innings. Nobody questions his stuff, but then again he did allow 31 homers this year despite pitching half his games in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, and his peripherals have gotten worse each of the past two seasons after a stellar 1998. He needs to sign with a team that already has a deep rotation and won't be counting on him for 220 innings, because he has yet to show he can pitch that much. He's likely to get big money from a team that misses out on Mike Hampton and Mike Mussina.

Bret Boone
It's a weak group of second basemen, so Boone might get a look from a club thinking he could provide pop at the position. He did hit 19 homers last season, but his offensive game is extremely limited due to an inability to hit for average, take a walk or run the bases particularly well. He did up his walk rate a bit last season, but it still wasn't enough to save his .251 average (and subsequent .326 OBP). At 32, he's got nowhere to go but down. If your team is interested, be afraid. Be very afraid.

Are you a MLB GM? Be sure to check the newsstands for Jason Michael Barker's latest epic "Consumer's Guide to Buying Broken Down Old Major League Baseball Players." Then tell him all about your latest purchases at jmb@strikethree.com.

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