Whither A-Rod?

Dave Paisley

With the free agent hunt finally in full swing, I thought it would be interesting to review the Alex Rodriguez situation now that we know a little more info about his demands and how teams are reacting to them. Certainly, being a free agent, any team can hire him but there are certain criteria that need to be met.

First, there's money. We're talking in the neighborhood of $20M a year for about 10 years. That's an amount of money that few teams are able to commit to. Then there's Rodriguez' insistence that he will only play for a team committed to winning on a regular basis.

The more nebulous requirement is that of media exposure and star treatment. Obviously the Mets Steve Phillips believes that Rodriguez is trying to set himself up as someone above the game, the Michael Jordan of baseball if you will. Whether that's true or not, it appears to be widely believed, and there are few teams willing and able to provide the kind of star treatment that Rodriguez reportedly wants.

Even if all of these demands are met, there's still another consideration: how badly does the team need a superstar shortstop?

Not wanting to leave any team out of the running, I thought I'd run down them all to see which teams emerge as the real front-runners.

NL EAST

Braves
The Braves are an interesting team in this race. They would normally be considered a frontrunner. They have the money, but maybe not enough money to pay Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Alex Rodriguez, as well as field the remainder of a team. They win consistently, and they play most days on TBS. However, how much do they need a superstar shortstop? Rafael Furcal is five years younger and will be dirt cheap for the next five years, too. Not that he's in the A-Rod offensive class, but there is no pressing need.

Mets
The Mets have declared themselves out of the running, given Rodriguez' alleged outrageous demands. I don't count them out though, because they could get an enormous offensive boost from A-Rod at short after years of Ordonez. However, playing mind games is a sure way to piss off both Rodriguez and agent Scott Boras, so they may have killed their chances if they really aren't out.

Phillies
No money, no commitment to winning, no chance or desire.

Marlins
Yeah, as if! The anti-Rodriguez team given their recent history.

Expos
All of the disadvantages of the worst of every other team, plus they're the most obscure media market in the majors.

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals
Here's a team that doesn't really need the offense, especially if McGwire comes back healthy. Besides, they need Renteria leading off. No interest.

Reds
Too cheap to even spend an extra $200K on a manager. Plus, they already got burned by one ex-Mariner.

Astros
Too many other problems to solve.

Cubs
OK, what's wrong with the juxtaposition of these two phrases: "Chicago Cubs" and "Perennial winner"? Now you know why A-Rod ain't going to Wrigley.

Pirates
Already "splurged" on Kendall. Oh, and about another million reasons why A-Rod won't be headed to Western PA.

Brewers
Like our whiny commissioner-for-life is going to let his beloved team break the bank...

NL WEST

Dodgers
At another time the Dodgers may have been a good fit for Rodriguez, but I doubt that he'll be very interested in them given their recent turmoil. They have the money and the media market, and if they really want him they may be able to convince him they've reformed.

Colorado
Apparently they're interested, and no doubt A-Rod could put up some big numbers fast in Colorado, but he seems to be convinced that even modest hitters' parks aren't conducive to winning championships. I doubt this will get too serious.

Giants
No real interest here. Bonds and Kent are the only superstars they want or can afford, I guess.

Diamondbacks
Recent financial problems and managerial turmoil make these guys non-starters.

Padres
Can't even afford Jeromy Burnitz. 'Nuff said.

AL EAST

Yankees
Two words: Derek Jeter. Signing Rodriguez is an intriguing possibility, but they really wouldn't know what to do with him if they got him. And without a solid plan (and a guarantee he plays at short) he won't sign.

Red Sox
Two more words: Nomar Garciaparra. Here's a case where they simply don't need A-Rod.

Blue Jays
One word: Canada. He ain't playing there. Period.

Orioles
The Orioles played the spending-big-bucks game before and failed. But they failed because they paid a bunch of over-the-hill veterans, not blossoming superstars like Rodriguez. They've had their shot, failed miserably and are now doomed to sit out battles like this.

Devil Rays
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. I kill me.

AL CENTRAL

White Sox
Now here's an intriguing team. They could use the upgrade at short. They play in one of the big media markets. They could spring the cash. They have the same owner that made Michael Jordan a household name. But they were pretty much a flash in the pan this year. Have they really shown that they're capable and committed to winning long-term?

Indians
The Indians could also use a big upgrade offensively at short. On the other hand, they gave a bunch of financial mumbo-jumbo reasons for not wanting to pay Manny Ramirez, so you have to wonder whether they'd really spring for A-Rod. Their success has been built on locking up young talent cheap, not paying top dollar on the open market. So I don't think they're it.

Detroit
Tried to get Gonzalez. Failed. Won't get Rodriguez. Period.

Royals
Let me try to keep a straight face while I consider this one. Nope, can't do it.

Twins
Ditto.

AL WEST

Rangers
Flush with cash, the Rangers are apparently serious about trying to land Rodriguez. Can you imagine all those I-Rod-to-A-Rod throws on steal attempts? Still, I believe that the Rangers' history of poor pitching will be sufficient to put Rodriguez off. In many ways, the Rangers are like the Mariners of the early- to mid-nineties, and Rodriguez knows what that looks like.

Oakland
They already have Miguel Tejada, and taking on A-Rod would just about double their salary. So, not interested, thanks.

Anaheim
Too many other problems. Plus, Disney doesn't seem to be ready to invest in baseball right now. Besides, they've got Gary DiSarcina, for crying out loud.

And finally...

Mariners
Running down the list above, I don't see one clearly compelling team that meets all of a Rodriguez' criteria and also desperately needs a boost from the kind of production he brings. The Mariners have the money to match any other offer, and reportedly will do so. They have already landed Ichiro Suzuki, a clear message to A-Rod that they're willing to spend money to make money, and that they're committed to building a winning future.

Ken Griffey Jr. never suffered nationally from being in Seattle. He had his own Nintendo game (courtesy of the Mariners owner.) Rodriguez has enjoyed Seattle and the Mariners have treated him fairly. They'd also like to keep their one remaining superstar after losing Randy Johnson and Griffey.

I really don't know where Rodriguez will land, but I did think the Mets were the most likely team if he didn't stay with Seattle. Ultimately, I think he'll most likely end up back in Seattle, but the Dodgers could turn his head with the bright shiny lights of LA.

I do believe that much of the other free agent activity is waiting for the resolution to this piece of the puzzle, so I expect it to happen soon. But don't hold your breath or anything...

about the author

Dave Paisley coined the '70s catchphrase, "Where's the Beef?" ask him if he would mind not attempting a comeback at drdjp@strikethree.com.