AL MVP PDQ

Dave Paisley

[Ed. Note: The following was written prior to Wednesday's AL MVP announcement. We're running it anyway, so you'll know who should have won, and so you can chuckle at Dave's prediction with 20/20 hindsight. This is why they don't archive Peter Gammons' old columns.]

Well, the final postseason award is due out any minute, and like its NL equivalent, the AL MVP is pretty much a crap shoot. There are many candidates, and good reasons for choosing several of them. Guessing who's going to win is always a tricky business. There's the guy I think ought to win, plus the guy who I believe the BBWAA will vote for. Those two are often quite different.

I don't think there's any totally objective criterion by which we can judge the candidates. Some people claim to have invented the ultimate stat, but I don't buy it. You can adjust for park effect, wind blowing in, wind blowing out, geese flying over the stadium, how many bottles of vodka the BBWAA voters drank while voting -- all these things, and yet there are still some intangible factors that you just can't allow for.

I believe a good starting point is the criterion I used last week to rate the NL MVP candidates -- OPS multiplied by Plate Appearances (at-bats plus walks). It's a crude measure of how much a guy played and how valuable that play was. Here's the top ten in the AL, featuring the usual triple crown stats, OPS and my new criterion:

Name	Team	HR	RBI	Avg	OPS	OPS*PA
Delgado	Tor	41	137	.344	1.134	785
Thomas	Chi	43	143	.328	1.061	736
Giambi	Oak	43	137	.333	1.123	727
Erstad	Ana	25	100	.355	.950	703
Glaus	Ana	47	102	.284	1.008	680
Rodriguez	Sea	41	132	.316	1.026	671
Martinez	Sea	37	145	.324	1.002	653
Sweeney	KC	29	144	.333	.930	641
Palmeiro	Tex	39	120	.288	.955	638
Dye	KC	33	118	.321	.951	637

You can see this isn't too bad a measure by the fact that all the big candidates are near the top. Delgado, Thomas, Giambi, Rodriguez -- all there. The list doesn't take into account the differential for defensive position. For example, Delgado, Thomas and Giambi play the easiest position on the field. In Thomas' case, he more often than not takes the easiest place on the bench while fielding is taking place. And while I'm a huge Edgar Martinez fan, the fact that he doesn't play the field really hurts his MVP chances.

Then there's the made-the-playoffs factor. That eliminates Erstad and Glaus, deserving though they might be of consideration. And let me say now that I don't think there's anything too wrong with considering whether a team made the playoffs as a factor in MVP voting. If there are no obvious candidates from playoff teams, by all means consider outstanding contributions from last place teams or whatever.

But all other things being equal, I'll take a player who made a difference on a playoff team over one who loafed along putting up big numbers on a team headed nowhere, like maybe Kansas City (hello, Mike Sweeney!)

The traditional numbers that BBWAA voters seem to be fixated on the triple crown stats -- average, home runs and RBIs -- don't really clarify the issue very much, but here's what that list looks like, again unadjusted for park factor and fielding position.

Name	Team	OPS	Avg Pts	HR pts	RBI pts	Total	OPS*PA Rank
Thomas	Chi	1.061	88	91	99	278	2
Giambi	Oak	1.123	90	91	94	275	3
Delgado	Tor	1.134	92	87	94	274	1
Martinez	Sea	1.002	87	79	100	266	7
Rodriguez	Sea	1.026	85	87	91	263	6
Ramirez	Cle	1.154	94	81	84	259	16
Sweeney	KC	.930	90	62	99	251	8
Glaus	Ana	1.008	76	100	70	247	5
Justice	NY	.961	77	87	81	245	23
Palmeiro	Tex	.955	77	83	83	243	9

Note that of our previous top six, Troy Glaus drops to eight, while Darin Erstad drops out, Edgar Martinez moves up to four and Manny Ramirez rockets in at number six. Ramirez is interesting in that he only played in 118 games, so he didn't get enough plate appearances to crack the top ten of the OPS*PA list, but he gets good average points and still racked up enough homers and RBI to dent this top ten.

Still, this list only reinforces the case of Alex Rodriguez, in that he manages to keep up with these hulking big boys while also playing shortstop. The four guys ahead of him on this list are all 1B/DH types with no real defensive skills to write home about. I think that difference alone tips the scales in his favor.

Will he win? No way in hell. I'm guessing that will go to Frank Thomas mostly because of the comeback nature of his great year. My one consolation is that it won't be as totally undeserved as the Juan Gonzalez or Ivan Rodriguez MVP awards of recent years.

Dave Paisley is leading the push to allow a designated fielder for AL first basemen. If you see Frank Thomas, have him join the at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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