Two Big CYs

Dave Paisley

While the MVP races in both leagues are pretty much up for grabs, there's really not much doubt about where the Cy Young awards should be headed. By all but the most trivial of measures, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez should be expanding their trophy cabinets in preparation.

I even have documentary proof. I was casting around for a quick and easy way to figure out pitching value that doesn't exclude stellar relievers, and eventually hit on the idea of using innings pitched divided by ERA. Mathematically, this works out to be IP^2/(ER*9). The nice part is that it rewards guys who pitch a lot of innings, while it also valuing those innings with a low ERA. This way, a starter who pitches 210 innings with a 4.50 ERA is roughly equivalent to a reliever who pitches 70 innings with a 1.50 ERA. Not a perfect balance, but fair enough.

Here's how the NL stacks up on that basis:

Name	Team	ERA	W	K	IP/ERA
R Johnson	Ari	2.64	19	347	94.0
K Brown	LA	2.58	13	216	89.1
G Maddux	Atl	3.00	19	190	83.0
T Glavine	Atl	3.40	21	152	70.9
M Hampton	NY	3.14	15	151	69.2
C Park	LA	3.27	18	217	69.1
A Leiter	NY	3.20	16	200	65.0
L Hernandez	SF	3.75	17	165	64.0
R Dempster	Fla	3.66	14	209	61.8
J D'Amico	Mil	2.66	12	101	60.9

It's no surprise that Randy Johnson shows up on top, but his late ERA slide dragged him down so that he only marginally outranks Kevin Brown. Greg Maddux isn't too far back, and in fact the list does look like a who's who of pitching greatness. Still, I don't see any reason not to give the award to Johnson.

If we apply the made-the-playoffs factor, then Maddux, Glavine and Hampton would seem to be the obvious choices, but for some reason the Cy Young has been less prone to the playoff factor than MVP. You can see Johnson's total dominance of the triple crown stats in the following table, where each of the three categories are normalized to 100 points for the category leader. Johnson's late ERA slide cost him the maximum points that went to Giants closer Robb Nen. Here are the normalized triple crown numbers:

Name	Team	ERA	Wpts	ERApts	Kpts	Total Pts	IP/ERA Rank
R Johnson	Ari	2.64	90	57	100	247	1
G Maddux	Atl	3.00	90	50	55	195	3
C Park	LA	3.27	86	46	63	194	6
D Kile	StL	3.91	95	38	55	189	11
T Glavine	Atl	3.40	100	44	44	188	4
K Brown	LA	2.58	62	58	62	182	2
A Leiter	NY	3.20	76	47	58	181	7
L Hernandez	SF	3.75	81	40	48	169	8
R Dempster	Fla	3.66	67	41	60	168	9
M Hampton	NY	3.14	71	48	44	163	5

Despite losing the ERA points to Nen, Johnson handily wins the points race over Maddux, Park and Kile. Note how this list lends itself to more fluky candidates like Darryl Kile, who shows up simply because he got a lot of wins. Conversely, Mike Hampton drops down to number 10 due to low win and strikeout totals. Whichever way you slice it, though, the award should got to Johnson. And here's a strange piece of trivia for you: two of the leading candidates for the NL Cy Young feature last names that are American and British nicknames for a certain part of the male anatomy. Hmmm...

Meanwhile, over in the AL, the names change but the story doesn't. Here's the IP/ERA list first:

Name	Team	ERA	W	K	IP/ERA
Martinez	Bos	1.74	18	284	124.7
Mussina	Bal	3.79	11	210	62.6
Wells	Tor	4.11	20	166	55.8
Clemens	NY	3.70	13	188	55.2
Finley	Cle	4.17	16	189	52.3
Sirotka	Chi	3.79	15	128	52.0
Radke	Min	4.45	12	141	50.8
Rogers	Tex	4.55	13	127	49.9
Hudson	Oak	4.14	20	169	48.8
Colon	Cle	3.88	15	212	48.5

Not much doubt, is there? If Johnson is a runaway favorite in the NL, then maybe Pedro Martinez should get two Cy Youngs in one year for this kind of dominance. And this despite losing some time this year, too. What the list also shows is that Mike Mussina is a deserving candidate for big free-agent dollars.

Note the good showings by David Wells (no surprise), Roger Clemens (apart from the whole hit batsmen/bat throwing thing) and Chuck Finley (who wasn't that disappointing in Cleveland.) Other guys who pitched some quality innings but who will get precious little CY credit include Brad Radke and Kenny Rogers.

The triple crown points table looks like this:

Name	Team	ERA	Wpts	ERApts	Kpts	Total Pts	IP/ERA Rank
Martinez	Bos	1.74	90	100	100	290	1
Hudson	Oak	4.14	100	42	60	202	9
Wells	Tor	4.11	100	42	58	201	3
Colon	Cle	3.88	75	45	75	194	10
Finley	Cle	4.17	80	42	67	188	5
Burba	Cle	4.47	80	39	63	182	25
Pettitte	NY	4.35	95	40	44	179	13
Clemens	NY	3.70	65	47	66	178	4
Mussina	Bal	3.79	55	46	74	175	2
Sele	Sea	4.51	85	39	48	172	14

Once again, there's just no comparison. The guy that moves up this list the most relative to the other list, mostly because of wins, is Tim Hudson, while the strikeout points move Bartolo Colon up to number four. Other names that don't really belong in real contention are Andy Pettitte and Aaron Sele. Still, however you slice and dice the numbers there's no doubt whatsoever that Johnson and Martinez should win the Cy Young awards this year. Which means the BBWAA will probably give them to Glavine and Wells.

about the author

Dave Paisley is originally from England, which explains why he thought Veterans' Day celebrated the careers of Ruben Sierra and Dave Magadan. Make Boxing Day jokes at drdjp@strikethree.com.