NL MVP...OK!

Dave Paisley

We're in the thick of award season now, and the big ones are just around the corner. Never mind those pointless rookie of the year awards (who's touting Carlos Beltran now, eh?) the real ones show up next week - the Cy Young and MVP awards.

I want to take a stab at predicting these contests partly because I've always done it anyway, but partly because the MVP races are so wide open. The National league race is wide open for a couple of reasons. First, no one player really dominated the traditional stats that MVPs seem to require - batting average, RBIs and home runs. And the one player who did come close played in Coors Field, where even the most stat-ignorant BBWAA card-carrying journalist has come to realize that offense is inflated. So what's a pundit to do?

First, I've concocted my own recipe for figuring out raw value. It doesn't adjust for park, and it doesn't adjust for defensive position, but at least it's a start. I simply took OPS (On base percentage Plus Slugging average) and multiplied it by at bats plus walks. It's a grossly simplified measure of how much offense a guy generated, and it takes into account the difference in playing time between someone who stayed healthy and someone who lost a few games one way or another.

Here's the NL table:, with triple crown stats and OPS*(AB+BB)

Name	Team	HR	RBI	Avg	OPS	OPS*PA
Helton	Col	42	147	.372	1.161	793
Bagwell	Hou	47	132	.310	1.039	724
Sosa	Chi	50	138	.320	1.040	723
Kent	SF	33	125	.334	1.020	691
Giles	Pit	35	123	.315	1.026	690
Guerrero	Mon	44	123	.345	1.074	676
Bonds	SF	49	106	.306	1.128	673
Abreu	Phi	25	79	.316	.970	656
Jones	Atl	36	111	.311	.970	654
Gonzalez	Az	31	114	.311	.936	651

The first thing that jumps out at you is the absence of Mike Piazza, who played in only 136 games with an OPS of 1.012, 482 AB and 58 walks. A heinous omission? Maybe, given that he's a catcher and it's tough for most catchers to get enough ABs to qualify for postseason awards. Still, that's almost 200 plate appearances less than Helton, Bagwell and Sosa. This list is littered with guys who aren't getting any serious MVP attention. Anyone hear Bagwell or Sosa's names being touted? Brian Giles, or Vlad Guerrero (since May at least...)? What about Bobby Abreu or Chipper Jones? Nope.

Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds are the only two in this top ten who are candidates.

"What about the more traditional measures?" you might be asking. Well, here's a table of triple crown stats normalized so that 100 points is awarded to the leader in each category and the others get prorated.

Name	Team	OPS	Avg Pts	HR pts	RBI pts	Total	OPS*PA Rank
Helton	Col	1.161	100	84	100	284	1
Sosa	Chi	1.040	86	100	94	280	3
Bagwell	Hou	1.039	83	94	90	267	2
Guerrero	Mon	1.074	93	88	84	264	6
Hidalgo	Hou	1.027	84	88	83	255	13
Bonds	SF	1.128	82	98	72	252	7
Sheffield	LA	1.081	87	86	74	248	11
Kent	SF	1.020	90	66	85	241	4
Piazza	NY	1.012	87	76	77	240	23
Giles	Pit	1.026	85	70	84	238	5

Todd Helton still leads all-comers, and Sosa and Bagwell still round out the top three, albeit in a different order. We lose Abreu, Jones and Gonzalez from the other list, but gain Piazza, Sheffield and Richard Hidalgo, of all people.

Helton is an interesting case. Sure his numbers were inflated by Coors, but he still had a hell of a year. It's no getting to the point that a guy could hit .500 with 100 homers and 200 RBIs in Coors and nobody would give him any credit. I don't think Helton deserves the award, but he does deserve serious consideration, and I expect him to finish fourth or so.

We all know that a secret ingredient in the MVP voting is the infamous "made-the-playoffs factor," which instantly reduces these combined thirteen names to four -- Piazza, Kent, Bonds and Jones. Jones won it last year, and this season he suffered the September blahs -- another all-important factor in BBWAA voting. Which leaves the big three that everyone is arguing over. Here are the main arguments for and against:

Piazza
For: He plays the most difficult fielding position and may well be the best catcher to ever play the game. Far and away the biggest improvement over an average player at his position. He's not Barry Bonds.

Against: Limited playing time.

Kent
For: Plays a difficult defensive position

Against: Bats behind Barry Bonds, so he gets cheap RBIs

Bonds
For: Amazing production year in and year out. Voters may be realizing he's been cheated out of additional MVP awards in the recent past and make up for it.

Against: Plays one of the easiest defensive positions. Not a favorite of the press (i.e. BBWAA voters.) Dogged by notion that Kent is the "real" MVP of the team.

Likely result: Piazza, because Bonds and Kent will split the San Francisco vote. Overall, I'd give it to Kent this year, marginally over Bonds, simply because his year was absolutely fabulous even by his standards and was a truly outstanding year for a second baseman.

about the author

Dave Paisley stole Tracy Ringolsby's ballot when Ringolsby left the room briefly for a fresh cowboy hat. Nod knowingly when you see a first-place vote for Youppi. Dave's still at drdjp@strikethree.com.