Pitching on the Block

Dave Paisley

In our final look at the potential free agent market, we'll take a stroll along the pitching aisle of the giant baseball Megamart. Note that the following lists include players who are eligible but who may not have filed yet. They have until Nov. 10, after which time they turn into pumpkins. Or something.

The pitching free agent crop could be really spectacular, but a few shiny items have already been taken out of the window (Roger Clemens, for instance, with a contract extension) and others aren't likely to have their club options refused. The Twins Brad Radke could have gone dialing for dollars, too, but elected to settle for so much less than his worth and stayed in Minnesota to boot. D'oh! So, Brad Radke's bad financial planning aside, here's the likely list of free agent starters:

Name	Team	ERA 2000	ERA Pre-2K	Option	Comments
Mike Hampton	NYM	3.14	3.50
Frank Castillo	Tor	3.59	4.63
Roger Clemens	NYY	3.70	3.04		Signed 2+ year extension for $30 million
Mike Mussina	Bal	3.79	3.50	po
Curt Schilling	Ari	3.81	3.38	co
Kirk Rueter	SF	3.96	4.21		Signed contract extension
Mark Gardner	SF	4.05	4.56
Rick Reed	NYM	4.11	3.90
Gil Heredia	Oak	4.12	4.38	co	Club exercised option
Darren Dreifort	LA	4.16	4.33
Mark Petkovsek	Ana	4.22	4.53
Kevin Appier	Oak	4.52	3.54
Denny Neagle	NYY	4.52	3.82
Cal Eldred	ChA	4.58	4.51
Pat Hentgen	StL	4.72	4.14	co	Club declined option
Pete Harnisch	Cin	4.74	3.78	co
Hideo Nomo	Det	4.74	3.82	co
Jeff Fassero	Bos	4.78	3.81
Steve Trachsel	Tor	4.80	4.35
Willie Blair	Det	4.88	4.94
John Burkett	Atl	4.89	4.31
Andy Ashby	Atl	4.92	3.98
Bobby J. Jones	NYM	5.06	4.00
Armando Reynoso	Ari	5.27	4.56
Kent Bottenfield	Phi	5.40	4.19
Jason Bere	Cle	5.47	5.23
Tim Wakefield	Bos	5.48	4.34	co
Ismael Valdes	LA	5.64	3.38
Ramon Martinez	Bos	6.13	3.44	co
Omar Olivares	Oak	6.75	4.36	po
Tim Belcher	Ana	6.86	4.12	co	Club declined option
David Cone	NYY	6.91	3.19
Ken Hill	Ana	7.16	3.90
Mark Clark	Tex	7.98	4.48
Steve Avery	Atl	-	4.17
John Smoltz	Atl	-	3.35	co	Club exercised option

co - club option
po - player option

The pitching free agent class of 2000 is dominated by a pair of Mikes: Hampton and Mussina. For some reason, some people feel compelled to believe that Mussina had an off year, rather than look at his raw pitching numbers and realize he was just the victim of lousy run support, hence the 11-15 record. Unless you want to claim he has "bad mojo" working for him, he simply had an unlucky year. It might depress his price, but not by much. Hampton, after a shaky start with the Mets, proved to be the genuine article too, although his record also didn't reflect his performance the way it could have.

Primary suitors for these guys had better be thinking big numbers, and that cuts the contenders down to the usual handful. The trick, of course, is that no club, even the wealthiest, can afford more than two outrageous free agents, and even two would be pushing it. I sincerely doubt that two of A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Hampton and Mussina will end up on the same team, so it's merely a case of who signs first and for how much. The rest of the puzzle pieces will be forced to fit as the teams scramble to spend the money burning a hole in their respective pockets.

The Mets would like Hampton back, but he apparently doesn't want to stay in New York. With Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz back, the Braves can't afford to pay number-one money to what would be a number-four guy and, if anything, will likely concentrate on beefing up their offense. The Dodgers seem focused (if that word can be used about the Dodgers without inducing howls of derisive laughter) on finding a manager and maybe pursuing Alex Rodriguez. Which leaves the Yankees and Indians as the primary pursuers of front-line pitching talent.

For more bargain-oriented shoppers, there is hope that the likes of Kevin Appier, Bobby Jones, Rick Reed, Darren Dreifort and Ismael Valdes are actually available, but I expect their respective clubs to make a strong effort to keep them. However, Denny Neagle, Pat Hentgen and Andy Ashby can probably be had for reasonable bucks. After that you're into serious question marks like Pete Harnisch, Cal Eldred, Ramon Martinez, Tim Belcher and Jeff Fassero. One sleeper at the bottom of the pile is Steve Trachsel. One of these days a halfway decent team is going to pick him up and he'll actually enjoy some good fortune. Maybe this year?

And then there's the relief corps.

At one time, the thought of John Wetteland, Randy Myers, Rod Beck, John Franco, Rick Aguilera, Mike Jackson, Dan Plesac, Doug Jones, Ricky Bottalico and Jose Mesa all hitting free agency would have had GMs salivating. Now, it's more likely to have them running for the barf bags. In their heyday, at today's prices this crowd could have commanded well over $10M per year apiece. Now they'll be lucky if they can get that much between them. The only genuine closer in the whole list is Robb Nen and he's already been re-signed. Here's the list:

Name	Team	ERA 2000	ERA Pre-2K	Option	Comments
Robb Nen	SF	1.50	3.29		Signed contract extension
Jeff Nelson	NYY	2.45	3.41
Curtis Leskanic	Mil	2.56	4.92	co	Club exercised option
Tim Worrell	ChN	2.99	4.46
Rod Beck	Bos	3.10	3.20	co
Dan Plesac	Ari	3.15	3.67
John Franco	NYM	3.40	2.64
Mike Williams	Pit	3.50	4.64
Turk Wendell	NYM	3.59	3.88
Doug Henry	SF	3.79	3.98
Doug Jones	Oak	3.93	3.26
John Wetteland	Tex	4.20	2.82
Julian Tavarez	Col	4.43	4.41
Troy Percival	Ana	4.50	2.95	co
Paul Quantrill	Tor	4.52	3.91	co
Rheal Cormier	Bos	4.61	4.14
Ricky Bottalico	KC	4.83	3.84
Rick Aguilera	ChN	4.91	3.52
Terry Mulholland	Atl	5.11	4.22
Jose Mesa	Sea	5.36	4.35	co
Stan Belinda	Atl	7.71	3.89
Billy Taylor	TB	8.56	4.02
Darren Holmes	Ari	13.03	4.18	co
Tom Gordon	Bos	-	4.15	co
Mike Jackson	Phi	-	3.26	co
Randy Myers	SD	-	3.19
Jesse Orosco	StL	-	3.03	co	Club declined option
Scott Radinsky	StL	-	3.34	co	Club declined option

Even Troy Percival has lost that luster, although I don't expect the Angels to pass on his option. I'm sure they view this year as simply an aberration. So, after all the one-time big name relievers are taken out of the mix, we're left with Jeff Nelson as the only halfway decent reliever out there. Nelson apparently wants to return to Seattle, but we'll see if Lou Piniella re-ups with the Mariners and if he wants Nelson back first. Than again, the Mariners aren't exactly hurting for right-handed bullpen help just now, and with Mesa gone, the pen is already improved.

So overall, there is some outstanding starting pitching out there with some decent middle-of-the-pack guys in addition, but there's precious little quality bullpen help.

Dave Paisley's current get-rich-quick scheme? Selling free agents on eBay. Ask if they come in their original boxes at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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