Free At Last!

Dave Paisley

Last time we took a look at potential free agents around the infield but stopped short, so to speak, at shortstops. Sorry about the wait, but you need wait no longer. Just as I did last time, I'll show the available candidates with their OPS from the past season and their career OPS prior to that. And without further ado, here's the rather lengthy list of available shortstops:

At the top we have Alex Rodriguez, of course. Although Derek Jeter has four World Series rings, an All-Star Game MVP award and a World Series MVP award to his credit, he's still not half the player that Alex Rodriguez is. But try to tell the New York media that and you won't get very far. Still, A-Rod is the plum of this free-agent crop, and the bidding will be intense.

Deep pocketed teams only need apply, meaning the Mets, Braves, Indians, Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners will be the primary suitors. While the Mariners may not totally fit the financial bill, they've been saving their pennies for Griffey and A-Rod for quite a while, and with only A-Rod to focus on they won't let him get away purely for monetary reasons. The Mets will make a big play, as they have the money and the hole. Meanwhile the Braves are more hamstrung. With Chipper's $90M contract and new contracts for their pitching stars coming up, can they really afford to cough up an extra $20M per year for A-Rod?

Depending on the timing of who signs where, the Indians may make a bid for A-Rod if and when they lose Manny Ramirez. They have the money and they may feel that spending $20M on a shortstop is better than spending it on an outfielder. The Yankees are an interesting wild card in this. Conventional wisdom says they have Derek Jeter already, but he isn't signed long-term, and as noted above, he isn't half the player that A-Rod is, bulging trophy cabinet notwithstanding. Signing A-Rod and trading Jeter is just the sort of crazy, wild-assed move that would get the Yanks energized for another couple of years. Don't think that Steinbrenner has forgotten all those protracted arbitration losses.

The Dodgers aren't much of a factor in my book. As badly run as they've been, I expect A-Rod and agent Scott Boras to use them as a pawn in ratcheting up the asking price, but I don't see him ending up there. All that said, though, I fully expect Alex to come to the same conclusion that Dorothy did in the Wizard of Oz: there's no place like home.

After A-Rod, there are plenty of shortstops. That's the good news. The bad news is that they mostly hit like shortstops. Valentin, Bordick, Spiers and Gutierrez all had pretty good 2000 campaigns, but expect them all to drift back to their career norms. That doesn't make any of them terribly attractive. If you need just a smidge more offense from short than Rey Ordonez, then Alex Gonzalez may fit the bill. Of the rest, Walt Weiss should be ready to call it a career, and Bogar, Vizcaino and Huson should be forever condemned to infield backup duties. Bottom line: if you don't win the A-Rod sweepstakes, tough luck.

Behind the plate there are a couple of intertesting options. First, there's Charles Johnson, who suddenly blossomed as a hitter this year. Normally, I'd be suspicious of his continued progress, but he's at that age where this kind of power development is natural, so he's likely the real deal. An intriguing option is Dave Nilsson, back from Japan and the Olympics. He signed a weird deal with the Yankees this September, but it was apparently just for the remainder of the season, so he's free to shop around. Opinions on his ability to catch vary widely, but he'd be a useful everyday outfielder/first baseman who could catch occasionally.

co -- club option for 2001.

After that, there's the risky Todd Hundley, Darren Fletcher coming off a good year, Eddie Taubensee coming off bad year (oops, already taken) and a host of part-timers and backups. Mostly what you see is what you get, but I'd recommend staying away from Matt Walbeck...

The outfield features a more plentiful array of hitting talent, as you might expect.

Manny Ramirez is obviously the cream of the crop, and is heavily rumored to be Yankee-bound. If he does end up there, I don't see how even the Yanks can afford A-Rod too. Juan Gonzalez is the next-best option and may have cost himself some money with a poor season in Detroit. It does seem, though, that most people are buying the excuses of injuries and Comerica being a tough park to hit in, so he won't suffer too much. I doubt we'll see another season like 2000 from Ellis Burks, but even if that's the case, he's certainly worth a look.

Jeffrey Hammonds will probably get too much money, but most teams have latched onto the Coors effect so he may not be too overpriced. And there is some evidence that hitters who have been successful in Coors can maintain some of that improvement in thicker air. He's younger and probably a better bet than Ron Gant, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Henry Rodriguez and Tony Gwynn. Speaking of Gwynn, it will be interesting to see how his relationship with the Padres develops, presuming he stays there. Who else is going to gamble on his knees anyway?

Also in the "aging, may be about to retire" category is Jay Buhner. The Mariners would probably like him back, but only playing four or five games a week puts a strain on the bench. The problem was exacerbated in 2000 by the presence of other part-timers like Rickey Henderson and Stan Javier. Speaking of which, Stan Javier and Rich Becker are a couple of utility types that can fill in around the outfield and add a little something off the bench.

I expect to see Seattle make a halfway decent attempt to retain Javier, but not Rickey Henderson. It was interesting to see Rickey up close this year. Rather than be an outright clubhouse cancer, he seems to thrive on change. When he came to Seattle he got hot for a while. Then he seemed to get bored, not really waking up till the playoffs. Overall, he's not worth the money and the hype. If Oakland picks him up to have him break records as an Athletic, I expect it will hurt them as a team overall. And that won't bother Rickey one bit.

Kenny Lofton won't be going anywhere, but keeping him may prove detrimental to a big Indians push for A-Rod. After that the pickings get slim -- either old and declining like Paul O'Neill (and a couple of hot games in the Series doesn't mean he's back, baby!) or young and never-will-be, like Todd Hollandsworth (rumored to be re-signing with the Rockies.) Of course, there's always Derek Bell -- old, decrepit and never was that good anyway.

A sleeper in the pile here may be Reggie Sanders. Hurt a lot last season, his open market value will be pretty low, and he may be worth a shot for a team that can stand to roll the dice.

Finally, there are a couple of free-agent DHs out there:

After a phenomenal season, don't expect the Mariners to turn down Martinez' option. They would probably like to extend that contract for another couple of years, but there are signs that Martinez may choose to retire sooner than that. A lot may hinge on whether the M's manage to keep A-Rod. As for Harold Baines, it may be time to hang em up there, buddy...

So that's it for the hitting free-agents. Next aisle: pitching.

Dave Paisley would like to remind you that his columns are for entertainment purposes only, and he is not responsible for any damage to your home team that may or may not be caused by signing Matt Mieske. Do not, repeat, do not send subpoenas to drdjp@strikethree.com.

Web Strikethree.com