World Without the Wild Card

Last week, in the column he writes for a living, Rob Neyer whined about being unable to get excited for Division Series games. This week, in the column that I write for fun and publicity, I will take Neyer's complaint a step further and show you a world where the four-division format persists, a world where even the final day of the season was one of real pennant drama.

This is by no means an original concept. Everyone from Bob Costas to the Chicago Tribune used to do it, mostly to demonstrate that the wild card was stupid but sometimes to stand up for it. Since I haven't seen it lately, though, let me be the first to shine the light of day on this year's alternative standings.

National League			American League
East			East
St. Louis	95-67	--	Cleveland	90-72	--
Mets	94-68	1	Yankees	87-74	2.5
Florida	79-82	15.5	Boston	85-77	5
Milwaukee	73-89	22	Toronto	83-79	7
Pittsburgh	69-93	26	Detroit	79-83	11
Montreal	67-95	28	Baltimore	74-88	16
Cubs	65-97	30	Tampa Bay	69-92	21
Philadelphia	65-97	30
West			West
San Francisco	97-65	--	White Sox	95-67	--
Atlanta	95-67	2	Oakland	91-70	3.5
Los Angeles	86-76	11	Seattle	91-71	4
Arizona	85-77	12	Anaheim	82-80	13
Cincinnati	85-77	12	Kansas City	77-85	18
Colorado	82-80	15	Texas	71-91	24
San Diego	76-86	21	Minnesota	69-93	26
Houston	72-90	25

Most of the assumptions I made are self-explanatory. Except for Milwaukee, I placed each of the "Original 26" into its LCS-era division -- since the Brewers played their real schedule almost entirely against NL teams, it made little sense to pretend that far. Expansion teams found their local places. The AL still has a pair fewer teams than the NL, but nobody complained when the disparity was 14-12 the other way.

The biggest assumptions, and the reasons why that table is as flawed as one must expect from a counterfactual, involve scheduling. Both leagues had a balanced schedule in 2000, the final year that this was the case (and so the final year that the pre-wild card hypothetical makes any sense). Yet things like interleague games might have skewed life by a game or two.

With races as close as we see on the chart, that alone might have made affected the outcome, or at least encouraged teams to treat their stretch runs differently than in real life. All the same, let's draw as many inferences as we can from our alternate reality.

Obviously no Subway Series could happen if neither New York team made the post-season at all. On the other hand, look who, from the old-school AL East, actually lost a post-season berth to the new-fangled system? Imagine that cast of 30-something All-Stars trying to win a few in Chuck Finley's swan song.

Before Oakland's late surge, many people in real life assumed that the eight September games between Cleveland and Boston would decide the AL wild card. In our parallel universe, consider their effect on the AL East crown itself. Here's where the relevant teams stood through September 14, just after the Red Sox took two of three at Cleveland:

Through September 14
NY Yankees	84-60	--
Cleveland	77-65	6
Boston	76-68	8
Toronto	76-70	9

That weekend, the Indians would take three of four at New York before hitting Fenway to take three of five. Their double-header split would kick off a 6-2 final week in which they rallied from a three-game deficit against the winless Yankees. Friday night they would have taken first place for good.

An 11-4 drubbing of Toronto to end the regular season, all for naught in real life, would have exactly clinched the division in our world. New York's loss to Baltimore became official half an hour later. Had those outcomes been switched, the Indians would be up half a game. The Yankees would be forced to make up their Florida game, precisely the schedule havoc that so many people falsely blamed on the wild card.

What about the team that, in real life, actually did take first place for good that Friday? Tough luck, Oakland: Thursday afternoon's extra-inning loss to Anaheim would have eliminated the A's. Chicago, despite its fifth straight loss, would have backed into the title when Texas crushed Seattle that evening.

I cannot even begin to predict the outcome of a hypothetical Indians-White Sox ALCS. The human-interest stories would involve young versus old. Chicago would actually play night games, either allowing Frank Thomas not to choke or at least removing their 26-30 matinee record as the local alibi.

We move to the National League East, potentially baseball's weakest division. Is it any wonder the real-life Braves have dominated that division so long, given a decade of cupcake opponents? Still, what it lacked in depth, it would make up for in drama by the very two old enemies that I played up here a week ago.

Through	STL	NYM	Margin
8/31	75-58	79-54	Mets by 4
9/7	81-59	80-59	Cards by 0.5
9/10	82-61	81-61	Cards by 0.5
9/17	89-61	85-64	Cards by 3.5
9/24	91-65	89-67	Cards by 2
9/28	94-65	91-68	Cards by 3

As September began, the Mets entered St. Louis with what would have been a four-game lead, only to get swept in a three-game set. Pat Hentgen would have pitched the Cardinals into a tie on Labor Day, Daryl Kile giving them a half-game advantage over the idle New Yorkers three days later. Disappointing weekend series (each team dropped two of three to the Brewers and Phillies) would have preserved that margin.

>From September 11-17, St. Louis took seven straight against the Pirates and Cubs. That would have given them a four-game edge. Even though the lead would go no further, and even though the Mets would push them with a five-game streak to end the season, Craig Paquette's three-run bomb would have iced the title on the final day.

The final month of the NL West division, baseball's best, would have been a classic to rival 1993, as two teams ran away from the pack and one valiantly shook off the other. In real life, Arizona saw a 2.5-game deficit grow to almost double digits in barely a week. In our parallel world, they would start the month five games back of Atlanta; like four of the five chasing teams, they would quietly fall off the pace.

Through	SF	ATL	Margin
8/31	76-56	79-55	Braves by 2
9/4	80-56	80-57	Giants by 0.5
9/8	83-57	84-57	Braves by 0.5
9/21	92-60	90-62	Giants by 2
9/26	93-64	94-63	Braves by 1
9/28	95-64	94-65	Giants by 1

Topping Pat Hentgen's performance for St. Louis, Russ Ortiz and three solo homers would have lifted the Giants into a half-game lead over the Braves on Labor Day, a margin that would hold for three more days before San Francisco's bullpen implosion broke a seven-game winning streak.

But wait! The Giants would regain the lead with a 10-2 drubbing of San Diego, then make it a full game over idle Atlanta with a dramatic, come-from-behind, extra-inning win at Houston September 11. The man of the hour would be Barry Bonds, with his game-tying home run in the ninth inning at Houston and his called shot to give San Francisco a 1.5 game edge nine days later.

How special would Tom Glavine's 20th victory have been had it lifted the Braves back into a division tie? Would people remember former Giant John Burkett's year in Atlanta, had his six innings of three-hit ball at Shea given his team a one-game lead with five games to play?

When San Francisco won two straight at Dodger Stadium, how much bigger would be that Barry Bonds homer off Terry Adams in the seventh inning Thursday? On the final day, with a one-game margin to protect, the Giants would face Randy Johnson, knowing as they took the field that the Braves had taken a two-run lead into the ninth inning. How big a choker would John Rocker be then?

This is the first season that the Braves needed the expanded format to reach the playoffs, and we see how little use they made of it. By contrast, no city has benefited more from the wild card than New York. Think about that as the World Series begins.

about the author

Matt Bruce wouldn't steer you wrong, especially about Timo Perez's ceremonial fetching of Bobby Valentine's clubhouse slippers. Don't ask, don't tell at mb@strikethree.com.