Baseballhead:
Playoff Pundit Prattle

Michael Cox

Welcome my friends, to the show that lasts about a page or so, this week brought to you by Fox "analyst" Steve Sax, who recently equated sports violence to "wearing a wedding dress in Times Square." Perhaps Steve's been hanging around Chad Curtis a little too much?

To my editor's glee, all four Division Series ended yesterday, leaving the Cards, Mariners, Yankees and Mets all at least a day to recover before moving to the second playoff round (formerly known as the League Championship Series, but aren't the leagues nothing but glorified conferences now?).

However, as I watched the A's-Yanks Game Five tilt Sunday evening, I couldn't help but wonder how much more memorable their series would have been if it was best-of-seven. Would the Yanks (I'm sorry, but calling them the "Bronx Bombers" this year would be a misnomer, as they appear to be the ones in the shelters) be able to withstand another game without collapsing? Would the A's continue to keep hitting off the New York pitching, plus perhaps get the quality start they required from Tim Hudson in Game Seven?

Would Paul O'Neill finally snap, taking a bat to not only the customary Gatorade cooler, but also Jose Canseco?

We'll never know. The Yankees managed to hold the A's at arm's-length on Sunday, hanging onto an early lead, which as we all know devolves in the New York press to "just another win."

On the other hand, we can pretty much guess who'd have taken seven-game series between Seattle and Chicago, and St. Louis and the Braves. The Cards simply played Godzilla to Atlanta's Tokyo in the latter series, perhaps not only ushering out the Team of the '90s, but making them a footnote. The only problem is that now that John Rocker is as over as baggy jeans, the Daily News will have to make up new reasons to hate the visitors to Shea Stadium.

The M's/White Sox series, however, was not nearly as close as it looked. With one extra-inning win, one relatively decisive victory, then a ninth-inning sayonara bunt, a few breaks the other way (or more precisely, a few Frank Thomas hits) could have easily brought the Yanks into Comiskey Park for an all-heckler extravaganza.

As the baseball media continues to doggedly insist that Barry Bonds singlehandedly buried the Giants' series (conveniently forgetting his great Game One), they have pretty much passed over Thomas, who had nary a hit. None. The big avocado. And to boot, he blamed the scheduling. "I know I've been horsesh*t all year in day games. We've been bad all year, and that showed," the Big Hurt said after Friday's clincher.

Thing is, he has a point. How can you feel good going into an all-day-game series when your team, 69-37 at night, has a 26-30 record in the sunshine? Well, the two games in Comiskey were overcast, which really negates all the talk of shadows and makes Frank look a tad foolish. But hey, it's Barry who's the postseason millstone, right?

About that series-winning bunt by Carlos Guillen: if anyone tells you he stepped on the plate, they're lying. After making judicious use of freeze-frame on all ESPN's camera angles, it is clear to me that Guillen's black shoe never obscures home plate. He may have stepped behind the dish, which is against the rules -- if seen. He may have even touched the black rubber that outlines it. But he did not step full on the plate.

As for ESPN.com's strangely outraged Rob Neyer (where was he when the 10,681 violations of the "time out" rule occurred this season?), who seemed incredulous that no one but his own company's personnel even noticed this breach of justice, I'd like to point out another rule:

4.19. (...)Whenever a manager protests a game because of alleged misapplication of the rules the protest will not be recognized unless the umpires are notified at the time the play under protest occurs and before the next pitch is made or a runner retired. A protest arising on a game-ending play may be filed until 12 noon the following day with the League Office.

The plain fact is that not one of the people whose fortunes would have changed by a reversal of the play saw it or cared. Dozens of rule violations occur in games every day, because umpires can't possibly catch them all. In the end, a broken rule only matters if anyone gives a rip. And according to rule 4.19, as of 12 noon Saturday, Guillen's bunt base hit was legal.

If this "disgusts" Neyer, maybe he should consider a different line of work. I hope he doesn't, though -- he's usually very smart.

On to our Championship Series predictions:

ALCS
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees

Is the Yanks' age catching up to them? The answer, for anyone who has watched David Cone, Paul O'Neill or Roger Clemens lately, is yes. And fortunately for the M's, it's too late for George Steinbrenner to make a late deal for Carlos Delgado.

The Yanks are in the interesting position of having to play with the hand they dealt themselves: DH the defensive black hole Chuck Knoblauch and gain a little speed, but lose 50 points in OPS that Canseco would provide? Continue to trot Clemens out, despite a playoff loss record of multi-Bonds magnitude? Allow Scott Brosius anywhere near the field?

Not that the M's have fewer questions -- one of their most pressing answered when Jamie Moyer went down with a practice injury (that is, an injury that occurred -- never mind). Lou Piniella had so little faith in his erstwhile ace that despite claiming to be perfectly healthy, Moyer never started in the Division Series. When Piniella turns his back on an aging veteran, you know something's wrong.

Speaking of which, you can expect Mark McLemore to flail wildly in the direction of the ball, Raul Ibañez to start while Jay Buhner inexplicably "rests," and Alex Rodriguez to bunt in the fourth. As long as the Yanks don't break open 6-run first innings, that might be fine, but Lou Piniella's "small baseball" counts on the other team to play the same way.

Oh -- who'll win? Dunno, but they'd better wear flame retardant undies in the Series. If I had to choose, however...

Winner: Mariners

NLCS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

The Mets managed to eke out a tough few wins against a listless Giants squad whose on-again, off-again pitching was off again. Drunk with success, they may even feel good enough to give Bobby J. Jones another start, and forget that Mike Piazza is their Barry Bonds, their Frank Thomas. Plus, without John Rocker, the Shea fans will have nowhere to focus their misguided partisan rage ("Hey McGwire! Charities suck!!").

Mind you, they're going to have to take at least one in front of the Best Fans in Baseball (the real ones, not the ones other teams claim are the best), against a team that just made the Braves look like the Bad News Bears. If there's a team o' destiny this year, it has to be the Cards (having predicted the Braves to take the DS, that's my story and I'm sticking to it). You don't need timely hitting when you average eight runs a game.

The major questions are whether Mike Bordick and Todd Zeile will ensure late-October golf with their, er, masterful hitting, and whether the Cards' pitching will go the way of D.B. Cooper. However, I can't say I'd bet against the Red, even with Tony La Russa at the helm.

Winner: Cardinals

That's about it for this week -- damn! The rerun of Dark Angel is on! Gotta go!

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