Big Mo

Dave Paisley

After watching the Mariners take their first two ALDS games over Chicago I got to speculating about how the two teams finished their respective seasons, and whether that momentum -- or lack of it -- has affected the outcome of these games. The White Sox essentially clinched the AL Central about the end of June, effectively burying the Indians in a hole deep enough to hide two Jimmy Hoffas. With a dynamite offense and so-so pitching, they took command of the AL early. But the South Side pitching, never great in the first place, started to fail, mostly due to injuries. So into the post-season they've limped, so desperate for pitching they considered starting Cal Eldred, pin in his pitching arm and all.

The Mariners, meanwhile, never had more than a couple of games lead over the Oakland A's in the late going, and were clawing tooth and nail right to the bitter end for even the wild card spot. Seattle's philosophy in the past has been similar to the White Sox' this year: lots of offense and barely enough pitching. This year is different. The M's offense is decent, but there are some gaping holes in the lineup at times. Their pitching lacks a dominant starter like Randy Johnson, but it does have incredible depth, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

Here's a graphical look at the W/L records for each of the AL playoff teams through the season.

The remarkable thing is how the M's and A's had remarkably similar seasons. OK start, great June, OK July, poor August, and great September. Even the White Sox fit the same pattern except for the late weeks. The Yankees, meanwhile, went the opposite. Even so, note that each of these teams had only two very good months, being around .500 the rest of the time.

Seattle had a very respectable 19-10 record in the last month of the season. However, it didn't help them that much because the A's went 22-6. That tough battle seems to have helped Seattle remain tough through two nail-biting open games. How many saves has Keith Foulke had this past season where so much was on the line? Exactly none. The Mariners spent every day of the last two weeks in that situation.

Another momentum story is that of the Yankees. Ending the season as they did (2-13) isn't "coasting into the playoffs." It's tough to put the wheels back on the wagon while it's careering down the hill out of control. While the White Sox have had little incentive or momentum for most of the second half, the Yankees didn't have much of anything for the last month after they beat Boston in a critical early September series. The A's, as noted above, are on a roll of a different kind, and the Septembers for these teams are diametric opposites. Sure, the Yankees could win the series, but it seems an unlikely prospect.

The picture over in the NL is very different. Here's the monthly chart:

The Cards were up, down, up, down, up and up. The Giants were down, down, down, up, up and up. The Mets were all over the map, as were the Braves. Of the four teams, though, the Cards and Giants obviously ended the season more strongly. In the case of the Giants, it's as if someone turned on the power switch in July. Based on the data, momentum would say the Cards and Giants have the edge, and as I write this they have each won Game 1 of their respective series.

As I write, my four momentum teams are a combined 5-0, so the experimental evidence is running in my favor. So, how much is momentum worth in the playoffs? I suspect that regular season momentum carries over into the first round, but by the time that's over, you start to match up teams that both had momentum, so it's a case of whose momentum is biggest, if you'll pardon my French.

Dave Paisley, until Wednesday night, was the Yankees' staffer in charge of shoelace purchasing. Tell him that waxing laces doesn't make them look better on TV at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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