Baseballhead:
Penalty Kicks

Michael Cox

Welcome to our first playoff edition of Baseballhead, where we'll pause for just a moment in honor of the late Pierre Trudeau. Some of you may know that I grew up in Canada, and I did so entirely during the Trudeau era. For those Americans who might not understand, he was nothing short of the Canadian equivalent of JFK -- except JFK wasn't as great an orator.

Now to baseball. The final playoff slots were filled after a wild and wooly Sunday during which the A's took the West, the Mariners took the wild card, and the Tribe took their golf clubs. But wait -- how did the A's win the West, anyway? After Sunday, they were a half-game ahead with a game still to play!

Penalty kicks.

For the first time in Major League history, a team has been awarded a division title without winning more games in a season than its nearest rival. Because the M's win assured that the wild card would belong to the West, a rule kicked in that gave the division to the team with the most head-to-head wins during the season. Kinda like when a soccer game ends in a tie, so they make the teams take shots on each other's goal.

Never again should you laugh at the old Japanese rule where a game can end in a tie and be decided on hits.

There are two reasons for this rule:

1. The need to keep the playoff schedule on schedule, even though some Division Series games are on at such godawful times that they might as well be taped in advance, in front of a studio audience.
2. The need to convince the fans that the wild card is just as valuable as a division title, keeping those fans packed in at contenders' parks.

Considering game times such as the 12 pm local-time start for the White Sox-Mariners short-shrift series game on Wednesday, I think there's latitude to allow the season to be played to a conclusion with proper post-season juggling. Of course, a better answer would be a 154-game schedule to allow a better cushion, but asking owners to give up 1/27th of their ballpark revenue is like asking "Mark and Brian" to base their radio show on intelligent banter.

However, I will never -- ever -- believe that a wild card berth is as valuable as a division title. Teams don't raise wild card banners, wild card t-shirts don't sell, and fifty years from now, no one will remember any team's wild card seasons (except those in Florida, who may never have anything else).

But in instituting the extra division and wild card, Selig was thinking that a fluke season is more likely to get his beloved small-market teams (read: the Brewers) into the playoffs. And just such a fluke (read: the Mariners' total collapse in August) has now given the A's a division.

This is not to say that Oakland hasn't earned their title. But wouldn't you feel cheated if Olympic officials ran onto the track stopped the 200-meter run at the 190-meter mark, then awarded the medal to Marion Jones because she has a faster personal best time than Pauline Davis-Thompson?

But now it is the time on Sprockets when we predict.

American League:

Athletics vs. Yankees
This ought to be good -- but not that good. If I had a Lira for every time some pundit has said "the Yanks know how to win," I'd have a good five bucks. They didn't "know how to win" against the Devil Rays or Orioles, despite the threat that the Red Sox were making a late run. (Of course, by "run," I mean, "didn't lose all their games.")

Meanwhile, on the other coast, the A's have been racking up runs, their offense producing just in time. And on the pitching end, even Kevin Appier has been looking good. "How to win"? Pitch well, hit well. There -- I've let the cat out of the bag.

But if you are to believe the "experts," you can expect magic pixie dust to settle on the Bronx in time for Game...er...3? Oh yeah, the Yankees couldn't get home-field advantage. Not that it may matter much -- there are probably plenty of good seats left in Oakland, where most people on the street thought the team had moved to Tampa.

Winner: Athletics

White Sox vs. Mariners
While the M's fans have sounded much like the Yanks' in lauding their team's "small baseball" (meaning: "half our lineup can't hit, so they better damn sure be able to bunt"), the Sox have quietly been amassing the league's best record. Unfortunately, the Sox' fans had been quietly ignoring it.

Both teams have had problems with their rotation as of late: the Sox will hope that Sirotka, Eldred, and Baldwin don't all have their arms fall off at once, while the M's can't be sure which Freddy Garcia will walk in the door this afternoon. The Sox will likely rely on their hitting to make up for the problems with their starters. The M's will likely pray that Mark McLemore remembers which end of the bat you hold, and that Big Brother's Eddie never challenges Al Martin to an outfield footrace.

In the end, the team whose pitching regains its earlier form will take this series. Based on the past couple of weeks' performance, I'd have to give it to...

Winner: Mariners

National League

Braves vs. Cardinals
Like the Yanks, the Braves have lost their home-field advantage and enter uncharted territory against the Cards, who proved that they can win despite Mark McGwire's reversion to his usual semi-injured form ("Damn you! Stronger steroids, I said!"). Fortunately, however, Will Clark was available, and the team can only hope that his regular injuries only occur when Mac is available, and vice versa.

The Braves' rotation has slowly reverted to form, which means trouble with a capital "M" and that stands for...er, never mind. I just remembered the past several Atlanta postseasons. On the other hand, they tend to do well in the early rounds, although tending to induce fan heart attacks in the process. However, they've got the balance of offense and defense, and the Cards are managed by Tony La Russa, so both these teams know how to lose.

As much as I'd like to see a Braveless NLCS, I have to give the nod to superior pitching (and yes, that includes John Rocker).

Winner: Braves

Giants vs. Mets

While waiting to be interviewed recently, a producer asked me whether I didn't think the Giants weren't built for the "long haul," while the Mets are built to take a short series with their superior rotation. I replied that unlike hockey or basketball, I don't put much stock in any sort of innate ability to create a different "playoff style." Besides, the Braves and Red Sox continually disprove such a theory by losing.

Something perhaps more relevant: this series pits the two teams with the most extreme home-road win splits in baseball this year. The Giants have home field advantage. Dusty Baker has again held a pitching staff together with duct tape and twine, but their hitting has been nothing short of amazing (then again, it's only the Astros' bats that lead the Giants this year, and look at them).

The Mets will place their hopes behind the idea that Hampton might win his first playoff start in four tries, and that the Giants will cool off. The Giants will place their hopes behind the idea that they are that damn good. Add the bad blood between these teams, and between their fans, and you have your basic Pier Six brawl (upgraded from a Pier One when they ran out of wicker sofas). However, you can't fight fate.

Winner: Giants

There you have it. We'll get to the Championship Series next week. Until then, here's hoping you get to see the game instead of the debate! Vote Lyndon Larouche!

What? He isn't running? People might've actually voted for him this time.

about the author

As you might have guessed, Michael Cox is indeed running for President of our fine nation, that little rule that candidates have to be born in the United States be damned. Tell him his "Pepper to the People!" campaign has already been done when you write him at mc@strikethree.com.