Pole Position

Dave Paisley

With just one week to go in the regular season, the American League playoff races are still very much up in the air. Virtually nothing is settled except for the fact that the White Sox will finish with the best record in the league, guaranteeing them home field advantage. With that in mind, let's see how the division races and wild card are shaking out, with an eye on who plays whom in the waning days of the season.

First, the Yankees looked to have the AL East wrapped up a week ago, but a six-game skid put that victory parade on hold. Here's the current state of play. GB is games behind the leader, while GR is the number of games remaining to be played.

Team	W	L	GB	GR	Opponents
NY	87	67	-	8	Det(1), @TB(3), @Bal (3)
Tor	82	73	-5.5	7	TB(1), @Bal(3), @Cle(3)
Bos	81	75	-7	6	@Cha(3), @TB(3)

Note that the Yanks have a game missing due to the apparently permanent postponement of an interleague game with the Marlins. It's highly unlikely that they'd need to make that up, though, with a five and a half game lead over the Jays. With their remaining games against the inept Orioles and Devil Rays, there seems to be little doubt that Yanks will cruise to the AL East title again. Boston is just about done, Pedro or not, so their only glimmer of hope is the wild card. But more of that later.

The White Sox have clinched the Central, but could still play a big part in the playoff picture, as they have one game with Cleveland and a series with Boston. If they don't just run out the scrubs, that should be the final nail in the Red Sox' coffin.

The AL West is where the action is right now, with the Mariners salvaging the final game of a four game weekend series with the A's to hang onto a slim one game lead. Outscored 23-11 in the series, it's the Mariner offense that's the problem right now, especially superstar shortstop Alex Rodriguez, who has looked more like Rey Ordonez of late.

Team	W	L	GB	GR	Opponents
Sea	87	69	-	6	Tex(3), @Ana(3)
Oak	85	69	-1	8	Ana(4), Tex(3), @TB(1)

The A's and Mariners now face two series each against the other two AL West teams, the Angels and Rangers. The games promise to be feisty, as previous years have seen some great spoiler games by the also-rans.

Just as Seattle currently leads the division by the slimmest of margins, Oakland leads the wild card race by one game, too. Whichever team wins the division in the end, the other will be in the thick of the wild card race. Here's the wild card standings.

Team	W	L	GB	GR	Opponents
Oak	85	69	-	8	Ana(4), Tex(3), @TB(1)
Cle	84	70	-1	8	Cha(1), Min(4), Tor(3)
Tor	82	73	-3.5	7	TB(1), @Bal(3), @Cle(3)
Bos	81	75	-5	6	@Cha(3), @TB(3)

While it's theoretically possible for either Toronto or Boston to snag the wild card, getting past two other teams (or three in Boston's case) seems extremely unlikely. There are some interesting matchups brewing, too. With Toronto facing the Rays and Orioles the next few days, they could well make a push at Cleveland, who they face in the final series of the season. That could make that series pretty interesting. Of course, the Indians face the Twins during that period, too, although they also have the grueling three-team double header Monday, so it won't be a cakewalk.

With a three game set against the White Sox, the Red Sox could be gone by mid-week. So the wild card looks like a scrap to the finish between the Indians and the runner-up in the AL West. Oakland is just praying they don't have to fly to Tampa for that postponed game and then have to play again to make the playoffs. Right now, it looks like White Sox-A's and Yankees-Mariners, but all that could change in a heartbeat.

The other item of note is that only one game separates the Yankees and Mariners for second-best record. The winner gets home field advantage in the first round, so it's not a trivial point.

Over in the NL, it's been over for a while. Sunday, the Mets all but clinched a playoff spot, and now face Atlanta head-to-head for three games. Only a sweep gets them close, but it is possible. They do have the marginally easier team for the final weekend (Montreal) while Atlanta gets the Rockies.

The Cardinals have nothing to do now except play for home advantage, which is still well within reach, being a game and a half behind the Braves and two behind the Giants. With only the Padres and Reds to finish off, they have it marginally easier than the Braves with their division rival Mets, and the Giants, who face arch nemesis LA and Arizona on the road. Expect no mercy for the Giants there.

Over in the wild card "race," the Dodgers and Snakes are barely breathing, and it won't take much to snuff out their chances.

Team	W	L	GB	GR	Opponents
NY	89	67		6	Atl(3), Mon(3)
LA	83	73	-6	6	SF(3), @SD(3)
Az	82	73	-6.5	7	@Col(4), SF(3)
Cin	82	74	-7	6	@Mil(3), @StL(3)

So it looks like Giants-Mets and Braves-Cards in the first round. I wonder who Pete Rose has money on...

about the author

Dave Paisley recently nominated Davey Johnson as "the most electrifying manager in sports entertainment." Ask how he missed picking Art Howe at drdjp@strikethree.com.