Bridge of Cys

Dave Paisley

Back in June, or roughly halfway through the season, I checked in on the likely Cy Young candidates. Over in the NL, the leaderboard was peppered with the names of the usual suspects -- Randy Johnson, followed a long way behind by Al Leiter, Kevin Brown, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Mixed in were some not so usual suspects like Darryl Kile (goodbye Coors!) Ryan Dempster, Chan Ho Park and Kris Benson.

All of this was based on the basic pitching triple crown stats of wins, ERA and strikeouts. At that time, Randy Johnson was 12-2 with a 1.57 ERA and led all-comers by a whopping margin. Well, times have changed, but have they changed enough to upset Johnson's back-to-back apple cart?

Recent talk has Johnson falling out of favor, mostly because he has been a mere 6-4 since June while his ERA has ballooned to 2.38. It's also no coincidence that his Diamondbacks have fallen from first place and are unlikely at this point to even make the playoffs, never mind improve on last year's dismal quick exit. But what can Johnson be expected to do about a punchless Arizona offense, or a disappointing D-Backs bullpen?

The Arizona offense has scored 54 runs in September -- worst in the league and less than half of league leading Houston, and firmly in the company of such notorious playoff contenders like the Cubs, Phillies, Marlins and Padres. Nevertheless, the BBWAA voters are unlikely to credit Johnson much for playing on a mediocre team that suddenly got worse.

However, to help the BBWAA, and to help my devoted readership to understand the devious working so the BBWAA mind, I have compiled, ahem, a table that shows just how the voting is likely to go. There are some adjustments to be made, for sure, but here's the basic deal.

My scoring system is simple - just like the BBWAA voters. The leader in each category of Wins, ERA and strikeouts gets 100 points. Everybody else gets a ratio of that 100 depending on their number relative to the leader in that category. So if Darryl Kile leads the NL in wins with 19, as he did as I write this, then he gets 100 points in that category. Johnson, with 18 wins, gets 95 points, while Curt Schilling (not even on the chart this year), with 10 wins, gets a mere 53. Here's the summary as of September 19:

Name	Team	G	W	L	IP	ERA	K	WHIP	Win pts	ERA pts	K pts	Total
R Johnson	Az	32	18	6	230.2	2.38	326	1.06	95	98	100	293
G Maddux	Atl	33	18	8	237.1	3.00	170	1.09	95	78	52	225
D Kile	StL	32	19	9	218.1	3.75	185	1.16	100	62	57	219
K Brown	LA	31	12	6	216.0	2.63	195	1.00	63	89	60	212
A Leiter	NY	29	15	7	196.0	3.21	193	1.20	79	73	59	211
T Glavine	Atl	32	19	8	221.0	3.58	141	1.19	100	65	43	208
C Park	LA	31	15	10	201.0	3.67	183	1.38	79	63	56	199
J D'Amico	Mil	21	12	5	150.1	2.33	95	1.08	63	100	29	192
L Hernandez	SF	30	15	10	217.0	3.65	158	1.37	79	64	48	191
R Dempster	Fla	30	12	10	206.0	3.67	191	1.38	63	63	59	185

It's interesting to note that even with a pretty poor second half by his own standards, Johnson still laps the field in this one. He doesn't quite get 100 points for ERA because I left in Jeff D'Amico, just to show how well he's doing in his comeback. Johnson doesn't quite get 100 win points because of Kile and Glavine with one more win, but he annihilates the field on K points, with Kevin Brown his nearest competitor at 60%. Note this well -- Johnson is well over 300 K's while his nearest competitor hasn't broken 200 yet.

So does Johnson deserve the Cy Young? You bet he does! Will he get it? The best I can say is a qualified maybe. The poor second half (even though it's not by any means all his fault) and the fact that the D-Backs will be reading Harry Potter books in October indicates a problem. So if not Johnson, then who?

Second on my list is Greg Maddux, who is better than teammate Tom Glavine, although that may not sway BBWAA voters much. But really, with one less win, better ERA and higher K's, how can anyone seriously tout Glavine over Maddux? Well, apparently it's fairly easy, because the pundits are doing just that.

As my table shows, even by traditional voting standards, Darryl Kile, Kevin Brown and Al Leiter are better choices. And all but Brown are going to the playoffs. And if there was ever a great travesty, it's what has happened to Kevin Brown in LA. Two seasons of stellar pitching and precious little to show for it. Well, except the $100M or so, that is. And the private jet. So why the heck am I feeling sorry for him?

I'll probably say the same about Randy Johnson in the end, but I have a funny feeling that the BBWAA are going to do the right thing and give him the well-deserved award. Just call me Mr. Optimist, I guess.

Dave Paisley recently sent in his vote for Jose Lima for the Anti-Cy Award. Dave'll actually be flattered if you call him an anti-sportswriter at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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