AL Math Finals

Dave Paisley

Well, the season is dwindling down to the last few games, and let's face it, nobody's going to care much what the Twins did this season once the playoffs get under way. But wait! Nobody cares now -- except me and all five Twins fans, I guess. But there's much more to this report card than just the Twins. There's also the Royals, the Orioles and the Rangers. Still not enticing enough for you? Oh well, why don't I just throw in the entire AL. At least that way you're guaranteed that four playoff contenders will appear somewhere here.

Casting around for some sort of criteria to judge a season's exploits is tough. How do you balance hitting, pitching and fielding? Well, you don't. And as fielding is a minor part of the equation, I'm going to ignore it. Not that it isn't important, just that the difference between major league teams in that regard is actually quite small.

So we'll take a look at hitting and pitching, and in particular runs scored and allowed. After all, they're what decide ball games. In the AL I'll start for a change with the Central division, in part because the White Sox have earned the distinction of going first, even if nobody knows why. The following table is a cliff notes history of the season, central division-wise, that is. First let me explain the information. All data is as of the close of play on Friday Sept 15.

The first few columns are somewhat self-explanatory. OPS is the addition of on base percentage plus slugging average, RS is runs scored, while RA is runs allowed. Rdiff is (gasp!) the difference between them. Pyth W% is the winning percentage would have had if the Pythagorean rule held exactly, while PyW is the number of wins they would have had at the Pythagorean rate (see note.) PyDiff is the number of wins above or below the Pythagorean rate they actually have. A positive number can be considered lucky, while a negative number is somewhat unlucky. (Some people call it extra skill. I prefer to think of it as blind luck.)

Team	G	W	L	W%	OPS	ERA	RS	RA	Rdiff	Pyth W%	PyW	PyDiff
White Sox	146	87	59	.596	.837	4.69	897	759	138	.583	85	2
Cleveland	143	78	65	.545	.840	4.93	838	740	98	.562	80	-2
Detroit	146	71	75	.486	.772	4.64	723	729	-6	.496	72	-1
Kansas City	148	68	80	.459	.775	5.58	807	867	-60	.464	69	-1
Minnesota	146	63	83	.432	.747	5.20	674	798	-124	.416	61	2

A quick glance at the OPS numbers shows that the White Sox and Indians have pretty comparable offenses, although the White Sox have turned a marginally inferior OPS number into a lot more runs (just in case you were wondering, they had a lower OBP than the Indians, too). There isn't such a great difference in the pitching, either, but the Sox have allowed almost twice as many unearned runs (77 to 41 -- thank you Jose Valentin!) so defense does come into play somewhere along the line.

Overall, though, the White Sox have won a couple more games than they deserve, while the Indians have lost a couple more. If that luck had been neutral, the Indians would only be five back. If the luck were reversed, the Indians would be almost tied.

In the remainder of the division, the Tigers continue to impress after clawing their way out of a big hole, while the Royals are just shabby and the Twins pathetic. It's hard to believe that the Twins are actually two games better than their Pythagorean projection.

Over in the West, the Mariners are one of only three teams (the division leaders) with a better than +100 run differential. Not only that -- they padded that 111 number even further on Saturday with a rousing 14-0 win over the hapless Orioles on Saturday. That 709 runs allowed is third-best in the league, behind only New York and Boston. Of course, it's fueled a bit by the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco Field, just as their OPS is the lowest in the division.

As in the Central, though, there's a significant disparity in unearned runs. Seattle has allowed only 48 to Oakland's 82. Added to the small ERA advantage, that more than makes up for the fact that Seattle has scored a few runs less than the A's.

Team	G	W	L	W%	OPS	ERA	RS	RA	Rdiff	Pyth W%	PyW	PyDiff
Seattle	147	81	66	.551	.799	4.55	820	709	111	.572	84	-3
Oakland	145	78	67	.538	.814	4.76	834	764	70	.544	79	-1
Anaheim	147	75	72	.510	.826	4.97	779	780	-1	.499	73	2
Texas	148	68	80	.459	.807	5.34	792	863	-71	.457	68	0

Luck has played a small part in keeping the race closer than it might have been. Seattle has continued to underperform in the win column based on Pythagorean expectations, while Oakland is as close to even as you can get without actually being even. An extra couple of games at this point would double the Mariners lead.

Oakland is performing right around expectations this year. Good, but not great. That young pitching staff hasn't quite broken through yet (apart from Hudson, at least.) The big question is, if a team in Oakland makes the playoffs but there's nobody there to see it, did it really happen? Are the A's just being overshadowed by Giants fever? (Answer: probably not.)

Perhaps the most surprising team in the AL this year has been Anaheim. Without the manic wild-eyed fanaticism of Terry Collins, the Angels have put together a decent season. Injuries have held them back a bit, too, although what they've managed to get out of their patchwork pitching staff has been surprising. They've used 11 different starters, only one with more than 15 starts, and that isn't the way to win. Pitching has been Texas' bugaboo this year, with absolutely nobody to back up Rick Helling and Kenny Rogers, neither of whom was much better than average anyway.

Finally, in the good old East, the Yankees have squirmed their way to a very healthy run differential, hitting peak form just before the playoffs, damn their eyes (sorry, anti-Yankee bias spilling out there). Best offense in the division, second-best pitching -- no wonder they're all over it now.

Team	G	W	L	W%	OPS	ERA	RS	RA	Rdiff	Pyth W%	PyW	PyDiff
NY Yankees	145	84	61	.579	.817	4.38	815	680	135	.590	85	-1
Boston	145	77	68	.531	.765	4.21	718	662	56	.541	78	-1
Toronto	147	77	70	.524	.818	5.22	789	825	-36	.478	70	7
Baltimore	147	66	81	.449	.780	5.52	718	852	-134	.415	61	5
Tampa Bay	147	61	86	.415	.722	5.02	665	796	-131	.411	60	1

The interesting story in the East is really the Blue Jays, who continue to outperform their Pythagorean numbers by a whopping 7 games.. With a negative run differential, they shouldn't even be within sniffing distance of the wild card, but there they are, virtually even with Boston. Speaking of the Red Sox, how much could they have helped themselves by just getting a couple of decent hitters? Jose Offerman at first, scrubs in the outfield -- pathetic. You know your hitting sucks when acquiring Dante Bichette is a good idea.

As for the Orioles, just make sure the young children don't get to see their numbers. The Orioles are like the Red Sox, except without the pitching. They've been lucky enough to win five games over the odds, so really they're about on a par with the Rays and Twins. Next year promises to be no better, especially without Mussina. Finally, there's the Devil Rays. Having Tropicana Stadium swept into the Gulf by a hurricane would be the nicest thing to happen to that team all year.

Note:
Pythagorean Win % = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

about the author

Dave Paisley recently was served a subpoena from Pythagoras, demanding royalties. Offer to testify that Dave has never calculated the third side of a triangle at drdjp@strikethree.com.