Pennant Purgatory

Dave Paisley

If the division races in the American League lack a certain amount of suspense, then the National League has all the certainty of a Pete Rose bet against the Reds. Like the AL, the National league has one race that isn't resolves yet, but unlike the AL, the NL wild card slot is all but wrapped up. With three weeks to go, it will be quite a shock if any of the four teams currently sitting in playoff spots are ousted. For instance, here's the NL West race. Note that the W* and L* numbers are wins and losses since my early August analysis of the division races.

AL East
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Giants	86	58	-	21	10
Diamondbacks	77	66	8.5	15	13

As I suspected and predicted a few weeks ago, the Diamondbacks have slipped way behind the Giants, due in part to the great disparity in the quality of their opponents over the last few weeks. Expecting the D-Backs to make up 8 1/2 games with 18 to go doesn't seem reasonable. They certainly haven't made any headway in the last month, losing 4.5 games in the standings since I last looked. Things don't get any easier with another three games with Atlanta coming right up.

Meanwhile, the NL Central race also got uncompetitive in a hurry. The Cards faltered a little after the All-Star break, but the tiny little light that Cincinnati saw at the end of the tunnel turned out to be an onrushing juggernaut. What looked like the tightest race in July has suddenly become a cakewalk. Not too many teams would have been able to make up any ground on a division leader that has managed a 22-10 record in the last month.

AL East
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Cardinals	84	61	-	22	10
Reds	74	71	10	18	14

The there's the NL East. This, on the surface, seems like a race, but even that is spoiled by the fact that the trailing Mets lead the wild card standings by a handy margin. But more of that later. The division is very much up for grabs with six games between the two teams in the next two weeks. Other than that, the Mets have the slightly easier schedule, completely avoiding any other playoff contenders. I didn't include the next best team in the division, Florida, because they're so far back I don't have a telescope strong enough to see them.

And speaking of other playoff contenders, just who is chasing the Mets? Here's the sorry looking list.

AL East
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Braves	84	60	-	15	16
Mets	82	62	2	18	14

There's the sad sack D-Backs again, who have a better chance of catching the Mets than they do the Giants, but it's still a long shot. The Dodgers, Rockies and Reds are pretty much goners at this point.

AL East
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Mets	81	62	-	18	14
Diamondbacks	77	66	4	15	13
Dodgers	75	70	7	15	17
Rockies	74	70	7.5	20	12
Reds	74	71	8	18	14

So there's the NL playoff picture. Two more weeks of jockeying for home advantage is about all there is left to worry about. With all four primary contenders within five games of each other, the playoffs could end up in just about any configuration. To be honest, I don't really care what happens as long as somebody beats the Braves.

Dave Paisley loves hockey, but not enough to argue with Pete Incaviglia. Commisserate at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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