Western Wildfire

Dave Paisley

The other Western race didn't look like it would be as close as recently as two weeks ago, with the Mariners holding a seven-game lead over the A's. However, a dramatic slide by Seattle has their postseason hopes burning up faster than a hundred acres of Montana forest.

Unfortunately for the A's, they've been almost as awful. Apparently losing Randy Velarde is a blow that set the A's back several games, although I share my own theories below. And really, it's not as if teams aren't dealing with injuries all the time. Archrival Seattle is a case in point, having fielded a starting rotation that changed almost daily through the first few months of the season. And in the middle of the recent slide they lost the big bat and yes, dare I say it, the clubhouse leadership of Jay Buhner to an outfield collision. Bottom line - quit yer whining.

About a month ago it looked like the Mariners and A's would cruise into September looking at well over 90 wins apiece in a dogfight for the division title, with the loser handily taking the wild card. Now it looks like the division winner will be lucky to break 90 wins at all, and even that record might not be enough to lead the wild card standings. Just to complicate matters, the Anaheim Angels have snuck back into the race -- a mere five games behind the Mariners. And they know just how severe a September collapse can be, having endured one first-hand in 1995.

It's instructive to see how the teams have played month by month, to get a feel for general trends. Here's the offense:

Team OPS	Seattle		Oakland		Anaheim
Month	OPS	League Rank	OPS	League Rank	OPS	League Rank
April	.846	2	.771	12	.838	4
May	.803	5	.816	4	.858	3
June	.804	8	.871	2	.816	7
July	.788	9	.825	5	.843	3
August	.810	6	.759	9	.774	7
Season	.809	7	.810	6	.828	4

Surprisingly enough, the Angels have been the best, and more consistent, offense of the three so far, while the A's have been very up and down with the bats. There's obviously some concern in that big offensive drop in August, but that's partly due to the loss of about some of Jason Giambi's at-bats. But there's certainly no hint of the Mariners' woes from the offensive side. But wait till you see the pitching...

Team ERA	Seattle		Oakland		Anaheim
Month	ERA	League Rank	ERA	League Rank	ERA	League Rank
April	4.86	6	4.28	4	5.20	8
May	4.85	6	5.13	8	5.18	9
June	4.05	2	4.98	7	4.84	5
July	4.01	2	4.92	6	4.57	4
August	6.32	14	5.86	13	5.10	11
Season	4.74	5	5.02	9	4.91	7

From second in the league two months in a row to dead last, the wheels just exploded off the Mariner wagon like Firestone tires on a Ford Explorer. I'm sure pitching coach Brian Price would love to have the month of August recalled. And it's not as if the problems are due to one or two guys having a bad month -- this has been a true team effort. Here are the numbers for the starters month by month:

Seattle Starters' ERA	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Moyer	4.19	-	4.21	4.26	11.08
Sele	4.15	4.35	4.45	4.89	6.67
Halama	6.59	3.08	6.67	4.76	5.57
Garcia	7.00	-	-	2.51	5.40
Meche	4.44	4.02	1.81	-	-
Abbott	-	5.26	2.03	4.06	3.46

Note that the starting rotation has been chopped and changed due to injury, with Moyer, Garcia and Meche all spending time on the disabled list. However, Jamie Moyer was his old self when healthy -- until August. There's speculation that Moyer's injury earlier in the year has caused a subtle change in his delivery that reduces the effectiveness of his off-speed pitches. As that's the only speed he's got, that's tough to cope with. Still, did Moyer's injury also cause Aaron Sele to start throwing lollipops? After four straight months of good-to-average pitching, Sele also tumbled off the wagon in August.

John Halama isn't as clear an example, as he's been up and down all year, but August has been a poor month for him overall. Then there's Freddy Garcia who went on the DL early, came back and pitched very well, but without getting decisions, then he hit an awful patch. Just his luck to put it all together Sunday, but lose 2-1 to the White Sox.

Rounding out the rotation, Gil Meche has been MIA since June and continues to rehab in AAA while Paul Abbott continues to pitch very well as a starter after a shaky start to the season in the bullpen. Three guys struggling and an offense that runs and hides once in while has been a bitter pill for Mariner fans to swallow this past month.

Remember how the A's offense tanked a bit in August? Well, that's got nothing on their pitching, which bears an eerie resemblance to Seattle's.

Oakland Starters' ERA	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Appier	4.08	5.03	3.98	4.95	4.08
Heredia	2.61	3.40	5.85	3.41	8.41
Hudson	5.20	3.62	4.05	4.50	11.72
Mulder	3.06	5.04	6.53	4.45	9.00
Olivares (*)/Zito	* 5.12	* 6.08	* 15.12	3.00	3.66

There's nothing wrong with Kevin Appier's line. It bounces nicely along between 4.00 and 5.00 for the most part. Not what I'd want from an ace, but respectable. But check out the next three. Gil Heredia has been great for most of the season, but a sudden doubling of ERA in August with the division lead in sight isn't going to endear anyone to his manager.

And what about phenom Tim Hudson? His line looks a lot like Jamie Moyer's, screaming into double-digit ERA territory. Mark Mulder rounds out the little rotation of horrors with an even 9.00 in August. The situation is saved just a bit by the emergence of rookie Barry Zito, who replaced the ever-worsening Omar Olivares after three ugly months.

So this appears to be the division nobody wants to win. The only thing I'm sure of any more is that Texas is out of it. Not only are they a bad team, the three teams ahead of them would all have to fall apart. And unlike the Giants-D-Backs race, these teams all have a very similar schedule. Seattle and Oakland face almost identical opponents, with a combined record about a game under .500, so there's no big discriminator there. Anaheim has a slightly different set, but again, their remaining opponents' aggregate record to date is about even. There is also a slew of intradivision games to finish the season, so anyone within about five games of the division lead by mid-September has a chance.

And that, my friends, is the way it should be.

about the author

Dave Paisley had picked the Athletics to take the AL West until he discovered that neither of the Giambi brothers is the genie from "Pee-Wee's Playhouse." Let him down gently when you tell him Mark Mulder is no relation to Fox at drdjp@strikethree.com.