The West Wing

Dave Paisley

The one division race that has been tight all season has been that in the NL West. Early on, the Arizona Diamondbacks were playing like they were last year -- over their heads. On May 27 they were sitting pretty at 32-16, nine games ahead of their current nemesis, the San Francisco Giants, powered primarily by a nine-game winning streak in early May over division rivals San Diego and Los Angeles. Randy Johnson was unstoppable, Todd Stottlemyre was winning games, even if his numbers weren't that great, and Brian Anderson was fulfilling his promise. Meanwhile, Armando Reynoso and Omar Daal were the unlucky ones.

The Giants, meanwhile, had endured an 0-5 homestand to open PacBell park, losing the last two of those games to those same Diamondbacks. The poor homestand was balanced quickly by a five-game win streak on the road, and then a seven-game home winning streak involving the Mets, Rockies and Cardinals. Too bad for the Giants that a 1-8 road trip followed right after that. By May 27, their young rollercoaster season was standing almost even at 22-24, nine games behind the Snakes.

Since that point, though, the two teams have been headed in different directions. At 70-55 as of August 22, the Diamondbacks have managed a mediocre 38-39 record since May 27, while the Giants, at 71-53, have 49-29 since then, to overtake the D-Backs by a game and a half. The big question now, of course, is what happens from here.

I could point to the D-Backs' acquisition of Curt Schilling -- a move that was supposed to cement their place at the head of the division. Well, they've been a respectable but not spectacular 12-10 since the trading deadline, Schilling won his first three games for them, and is 4-1 for Arizona. But the downside is that Randy Johnson is a mere 1-1 since then and went a month between victories. And 12-10 just doesn't cut it when the Giants were going 14-7 to pass them, fueled by great pitching from Shawn Estes, Livan Hernandez, and Russ Ortiz.

It also doesn't hurt that Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent and the very underrated Ellis Burks are all crushing the ball, all with OPSes over 1.000. Then there's Bobby Estalella, Rich Aurilia and even J. T. Snow backing them up as necessary.

The Snakes don't really have that kind of offensive depth, with only two of the regulars within sniffing distance of a 1.000 OPS: Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez. Some people are disappointed with Jay bell this year, but last year was exceptional, and a .782 OPS from your 2B isn't too shabby. Overall, though, it isn't an offense with much depth, though, and injuries to Williams early and now Erubiel Durazo haven't helped.

But perhaps the biggest clue to the eventual winner of the NL West lies in the future schedules of the two teams. Arizona faces Milwaukee (54-71), New York (74-52), Montreal (53-69), Florida (62-63), Atlanta (76-49), Florida again, Los Angeles (63-61), Atlanta again, Los Angeles again, the Giants for five, Colorado (63-63), then the Giants for another two to round out the season. The average record of those teams so far is 66-58, and those six games with the Braves don't look pretty.

Compare that with the Giants schedule of Philadelphia (52-72), Pittsburgh (52-72), Cubs (54-70), Philly again, San Diego (61-65), Houston (52-74), San Diego again, Cincinnati (61-63), D-Backs (70-55), Dodgers (63-61), and the Snakes again. The average W-L record of that bunch is 59-66, with only the D-Backs significantly over .500.

Most baseball pundits are predicting that this division will see a tense showdown that will go down to the wire when the two teams play each other at the end of the season. While that's an attractive prospect, it sure looks like the Giants have a golden opportunity to put the division away before then, or at least force the D-Backs to take five or six of their final seven games against each other.

And even if the Snakes make a run at the Giants and fail narrowly, they are unlikely to grab the wild card, as the Mets currently hold a sizable advantage. Guess they'll just have to settle for Randy Johnson winning the Cy Young.

Dave Paisley would like to apologize to the people of San Diego. That's all he said. Verify at drdjp@strikethree.com.

Web Strikethree.com