Powerpuff Guys

Dave Paisley

The American League may not have McGwire, Griffey and Sosa, but it looks like the AL home run leader will be up there in the running for the major league lead this year for a change. With perennial AL home run champ Griffey out of the way, the race is on between a resurgent Frank Thomas and a bunch of emerging young stars.

Thomas is on a pace to hit 49 -- close enough to a real shot at 50 for the first time in his career. He isn't so much bouncing back to recent prior form, but rather to the best form of his career. His best spell of home run hitting was from 1993 to 1996, when he hit 41, 38, 40 and 40 respectively. 41 is his career high to date. If you factor in the shortened '94 and '95 seasons, he would have been a smidge higher then, but not much.

Given that he's also cranking out doubles at a decent rate, this will be Thomas' second-best full season ever, bearing in mind that the short '94 season (about as long as this season to date) is likely to remain unbeaten as his best.

Player	Team	HR	Projected HR	Games Played	Team Games Remaining
Thomas	Chi	36	49	118	44
Batista	Tor	34	47	113	42
Glaus	Ana	34	47	116	44
Delgado	Tor	34	46	121	42
Justice	Cle-NY	31	45	106	48
Anderson	Ana	31	43	116	44
Thome	Cle	30	43	112	47
Giambi, Ja.	Oak	30	42	117	45
Rodriguez, A.	Sea	30	42	106	43
Everett	Bos	29	43	98	48
Palmeiro	Tex	29	41	114	46
Vaughn, M.	Ana	29	40	118	44

What do Dan Plesac and Larry Anderson have in common? They're both pitchers who made their one-time owners go "D'oh!" because of panic deals that they'll rue for years. The Jays' Tony Batista, who is likely to rival Jeff Bagwell for steal deal of all time, is second on our list. Batista has hit 60 of his career homers for the Jays in a little over 200 games. Not bad for a guy not yet 27. Of course, if he ever learns a decent batting stance and figures out how to walk, he could be the next Mike Schmidt. He certainly looks good for 40-plus homers a year for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, his teammate across the diamond, a mere six months older, is emerging as a genuine MVP candidate (not that I'd pick him, but certainly a top-five guy.) Carlos Delgado is poised to break his personal best in homers (44) but only just. These two guys have led a Toronto home run onslaught that leads the majors in homers per game -- a rate of close to two a game. With Fullmer, Mondesi, Cruz, Stewart, Fletcher and Gonzalez all in double figures it's no wonder, really.

Another surprise offense this year is over at Mike Scioscia's place. The Angels have been pounding them out, led by Troy Glaus and Garrett Anderson. Glaus is no surprise, with excellent numbers across the board, even to the point of being a fringe MVP candidate. It's nice to see a couple of genuine slugging 3B coming through.

Anderson is already 10 homers past his career best, but he still hasn't learned to walk much, with an on-base percentage just this side of brutal at .293. Nobody knows what's got into him, but I suspect it's a bit like Brady Anderson's fluke 50 season a while ago. The third string to the Anaheim homer fest is Mo Vaughn. He isn't exactly back to the form of his Red Sox years overall, but he could reach forty homers for the third time in his career.

There's nothing particularly special about Jim Thome and Jason Giambi this year, at least homer-wise, but it is important to note that Alex Rodriguez is well on pace to hit forty homers as a shortstop for the third straight year. He could easily make it ten straight by the time he's done.

On the team front, only two teams in the AL are hitting homers at a lower rate than the Rockies (remember the Rockies are dead last in the NL) -- the Royals and Twins. Some people might blame the ballpark in the case of the Royals, but the fact is that both of these teams are composed entirely of Punch and Judy hitters. Get past Jermaine Dye (11 homers in April, but only 3, 6, 6 and 2 in subsequent months), Mike Sweeney and Mark Quinn and you've solved whatever problem the Royals pose.

Team	Games	Home Runs	Home Runs Per Game
Toronto	120	195	1.63
Anaheim	118	183	1.55
Oakland	117	179	1.53
Cleveland	115	169	1.47
Chicago	118	165	1.40
New York	114	147	1.29
Baltimore	117	150	1.28
Seattle	119	147	1.24
Texas	116	135	1.16
Detroit	117	133	1.14
Boston	114	126	1.11
Tampa Bay	117	123	1.05
Kansas City	117	116	.99
Minnesota	120	90	.75

The Twins are even worse off, with just Jacque Jones (17) and Ron Coomer (14) in double digits. How badly does that hurt? Now tell me again why Brad Radke signed a long term deal with the Twinks?

Dave Paisley has secretly switched the Mariners' coffee with Folger's Crystals. At least that's their excuse. Admit that at least they're not blaming the slump on Griffey anymore at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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