The Power's Out

Dave Paisley

What was supposed to be the Summer of Swat has turned out to be more like the Summer of Not. The move of Ken Griffey Jr. to the National League Central was supposed to create an inferno of home runs, with a drive to break Mark McGwire's single season record of 70. It was supposed to be glorious, like an All-Star Game home run derby run riot. But it just hasn't happened. What went wrong along the way?

The first thing that happened was Griffey's slow start. The focus on his .217 batting average in April turned the media coverage against him in a big way. The mantra of the day wasn't, "Who will win the home run title?" it was, "What's wrong with Junior?"

There's no doubt Junior is having an off year. He's batting just .251/.380/.548 (AVG/OBP/SLG) and this will be the second straight year he fails to break the .600 slugging mark. It's interesting to note that his on-base percentage is right on his career average, as he's making up for the lack of hits with walks. With 46 games left, he's only seven walks away from his career high, and should break 100 for the first time in his career.

Meanwhile, the other contenders have had their own problems. Mark McGwire finally succumbed to injury again, being MIA since before the All-Star break, and yet he's still well within striking distance of the league lead. The table below shows that if he came back today, and continued to hit homers at the same rate, he'd end up with about 50 in a mere 116 games. Well, he isn't back yet, but it is rumored he'll be back August 18.

Player	HR	Projected HR	Games Played	Team Games Played
Sheffield	36	51	112	115
Sosa	36	51	115	115
Griffey	34	48	115	116
Bonds	34	51	99	114
Edmonds	32	45	111	116
Piazza	31	46	97	115
Bagwell	31	43	116	117
McGwire	30	50	70	116

Sammy Sosa has been overshadowed by all of this activity and attention showered on his division rivals. It doesn't help that the Cubs got all the excitement over with early, getting nine games back in May and staying there. The recent resurgence to within hailing distance of respectability has helped, but not enough to shine the spotlight on Sammy. And like Griffey, he didn't have a big surge out of the blocks.

Note that if Mac had been playing full time, he, Sosa and Griffey would indeed be three of the top four home run hitters in the NL, and it may have sparked something of a second half run. No doubt he would have helped halt the Cards' recent slide, too.

Turning to other shocking home run stories of the year, can you tell me what's wrong with this picture?

Team	HR	Games Played	HR Per Game
StL	183	116	1.58
Hou	170	117	1.45
LA	161	115	1.40
SF	158	114	1.39
NY	143	115	1.24
Chi	143	115	1.24
Cin	141	116	1.22
Ari	138	116	1.19
Mon	130	112	1.16
SD	128	117	1.09
Pit	125	115	1.09
Mil	120	117	1.03
Fla	117	115	1.02
Col	115	115	1.00

Any last minute guesses?

Who would have guessed that the Rockies, they of the light air of Coors Field, would be dead last in home run hitting in the National League? Take a look at their lineup, and it's really rather pathetic. Todd Helton leads the club with 27 -- not enough to make the leader board. The one thing you can say for Helton is that he isn't putting up those MVP numbers with cheap Coors home runs. Sure, he's got 19 at home and only 8 on the road, but even his road numbers are excellent -- .338/.426/.562. Of course, his home numbers are nothing short of phenomenal -- .435/.529/.826.

Sadly for the Rockies, there's very little behind him. There's Jeffrey Hammonds, with 19 homers and .365/.423/.610, again severely inflated by Coors, but at least as good as Dante Bichette usually put up. After that, though, it gets ugly on the homer front. There's Lansing (now gone) and Jeff Cirillo with 11 apiece, but that ends the double digit guys.

After those two, there's a fading Larry Walker with a mere 9 in 80 games. And you know you're in trouble when Neifi Perez is your number-six homer guy, with six so far. And let's not forget slugging outfield sensations Tom Goodwin (5) and Brian Hunter (1). Looks like it finally took a little Coors inflation to get Hunter's OPS over the .600 mark. And indeed it's guys like him who make me feel obliged to point out that it takes some talent to hit in Coors. Sure, it inflates hitting, but there has to be something to inflate first.

Finally, let's take a look at the two top homer hitting teams in the league. The second-place Astros have 1B Jeff Bagwell leading the way with 31, and they have ample support in Richard Hidalgo (29), Moises Alou (18), rookies Daryle Ward and Lance Berkman (16 apiece), Ken Caminiti (15) and Mitch Meluskey (11) all in double figures. Not all of those guys are currently healthy, but that's a pretty solid lineup.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have only two guys with more than 100 games played (Edmonds and Renteria), so their homers are spread all over the place. Edmonds with 32 and McGwire (30) top the homer list, and Lankford, Drew and Tatis follow with 17, 16 and 15 respectively, all in limited playing time. Renteria has been a nice surprise with 12, while there are eleven more guys who have hit at least three, headed by fill-ins Shawon Dunston (9) and Craig Paquette (9). Shows what you can do when you spread the wealth.

about the author

Dave Paisley has been working on his first screenplay, a remake of the Disney classic called "Braves in the Outfield." Wonder aloud how he's going to get that one past the Wahoo protesters at drdjp@strikethree.com.