The Winning Number Is...

Dave Paisley

With about 50 games to go, it's time to get realistic about who has a shot at the playoffs and who doesn't. The traditional "magic number" for mathematical elimination doesn't really make much sense for the teams who aren't in first place, because it supposes that the leading team will lose all of its games, while the trailing team will do nothing but win.

So let's take a look at what might be reasonably expected to happen over the course of the next couple of months. Here's the AL East, with records as of close of play on August 8. We can see the Yankees have a comfortable, if not commanding, lead of 4.5 games over the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. With 53 games left, the Red Sox could theoretically win all of them, leaving them with 109 wins.

The Yankees would then have to win 50 of their remaining 54 games to reach 110 wins to ensure beating Boston, making the magic number 50. That's pretty ridiculous to be getting into magic numbers that high right now. Heck, even the Devil Rays can theoretically win 99 games if they play out the remainder of the season undefeated, so even their magic number is 40.

Also, games behind can be misleading, as the number of remaining games makes a big difference in how likely it is a team can come back from a given deficit. Five games back with 100 to play is a lot different than 5 back with 40 to play. The former is no big deal, the latter can be difficult to overcome.

A more sensible way to look at is to figure out just how poorly the leading teams can be expected to play and then figure out what it will take for the trailing teams to catch them. The column labeled "% Wins Req. at 45%" shows what percentage of wins that team would need the rest of the way, if the division leader were to play out the remainder of the season at a 45% winning percentage. I figure 45% is as low as a division leader is going to fall, realistically. If that happened to the Yanks, they would end up with 84 wins.

The numbers for each division and wild card leader are how many wins they would have at each level.

Team	W	L	GB	% Wins Req. at 45%	% Wins Req. at 60%
New York	60	48	--	84	92
Boston	56	53	4.5	55%	71%
Toronto	59	56	4.5	56%	73%
Baltimore	49	62	12.5	71%	87%
Tampa Bay	48	63	13.5	73%	89%

The Red Sox would have to play at a 55% winning clip the rest of the way to pass the Yanks, if the Yanks won just less than half their own games. That certainly seems possible, so I'd say the Red Sox definitely aren't out of the divisional race yet. Same for the Blue Jays, who would only have to manage 56%. Of course, the Red Sox and Jays would have to be worried about each other as well as the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Orioles would have to win at 71% over 51 games, a feat they've proved incapable of over and over again. The Rays would have to win at an improbable 73%.

The final column shows what would happen if the Yanks played at a 60% winning percentage. This makes life pretty tough for all the trailing teams, as even the Red Sox would have to win at an amazing 71% clip to beat them.

Turning to the AL Central, we can see that the White Sox can basically punt it in from here. Even at 45%, the Indians would have to win 32 of 52 to catch them. Ain't gonna happen. And if the White Sox win out at 60%, then the it's bad news for the Twins who would need to win out from here to catch them.

Team	W	L	GB	% Wins Req. at 45%	% Wins Req. at 60%
Chicago	67	45	--	90	97
Cleveland	58	52	8	61%	75%
Detroit	52	59	14.5	74%	88%
Kansas City	51	61	16	77%	92%
Minnesota	52	63	16.5	80%	96%

How about that wacky AL West, where the Mariners have turned on the afterburners the last few days? Even at a lowly Seattle winning clip of 45%, the A's would still need a healthy 57% to beat them, while a 60% mark for Seattle puts it pretty much out of reach. Kiss goodbye to the Rangers (as if we hadn't already), and probably the Angels, too.

Team	W	L	GB	% Wins Req. at 45%	% Wins Req. at 60%
Seattle	67	46	--	89	96
Oakland	61	50	5	57%	71%
Anaheim	59	55	8.5	65%	80%
Texas	53	58	13	73%	87%

Then there's always that consolation prize Wild Card race. Oakland leads that by 3 games over Cleveland, with Anaheim, Boston and Toronto within another couple of games. Kiss goodbye to Texas (again!) on down, as there's no way any of those teams can get past the five top teams. If Oakland wins 45% of their games, any of the trailing four teams could get past them with a modest 55% winning percentage, but again they have each other to worry about. At 60%, Oakland would be almost invulnerable.

Team	W	L	GB	% Wins Req. at 45%	% Wins Req. at 60%
Oakland	61	49	--	84	92
Cleveland	58	52	3	53%	68%
Anaheim	59	55	4	55%	71%
Boston	56	53	4.5	55%	70%
Toronto	59	56	4.5	56%	73%
Texas	53	58	8.5	64%	79%
Detroit	52	59	9.5	65%	81%
Kansas City	51	61	11	69%	84%
Minnesota	52	63	11.5	71%	88%
Baltimore	49	62	12.5	71%	87%
Tampa Bay	48	63	13.5	73%	89%

Over in the National League, here's the East division. The Mets have a shot if the Braves play close to 45% ball, but the odds get bad quickly if Atlanta holds up. Of course, you can wave goodbye to the rest.

Team	W	L	GB	% Wins Req. at 45%	% Wins Req. at 60%
Atlanta	69	44	--	91	98
New York	64	47	4	53%	67%
Florida	57	56	12	69%	84%
Montreal	50	59	17	77%	91%
Philadelphia	48	63	20	84%	99%

In the Central, the Cards have been scuffling of late, but then again, so have their division rivals. Even if the Cards finish out the season at 45%, though, the Reds will have a tough time passing them, needing a 57% win rate. How good would Denny Neagle look now, hmm? Based on these numbers, I'd write off the Reds right now.

Team	W	L	GB	Wins / % Req at 45%	Wins / % Req at 60%
St. Louis	61	51	--	84	91
Cincinnati	55	57	6	57%	72%
Chicago	52	60	9	63%	78%
Pittsburgh	48	64	13	71%	86%
Milwaukee	47	66	14.5	74%	90%
Houston	43	70	18.5	83%	98%

In the West, the Giants' lead over the Diamondbacks is such that the merest falter opens the door for the Snakes, but the biggest question is whether the Dodgers are out of it yet. I'd have to say they are still in it, but only if the Giants and D-Backs scuffle along at 50% the rest of the way. Even that will take close to a 60% winning clip from the boys in blue. Possible, but not highly probable.

Team	W	L	GB	Wins / % Req at 45%	Wins / % Req at 60%
San Francisco	63	48	--	86	94
Arizona	62	51	2	49%	64%
Los Angeles	59	53	4.5	54%	69%
Colorado	54	57	9	63%	78%
San Diego	53	60	11	67%	83%

As for the NL Wild Card, the race looks like this -- there really are only three teams in it: the Mets, D-Backs and Dodgers. The Mets will have to do better than 50% to fend off the D-Backs (or the Giants if the NL West lead swaps) and Dodgers, but even a three-game advantage at this point puts them firmly in the driver's seat.

Team	W	L	GB	Wins / % Req at 45%	Wins / % Req at 60%
New York	64	47	--	87	95
Arizona	62	51	3	49%	67%
Los Angeles	59	53	5.5	54%	71%
Florida	57	56	8	69%	77%
Cincinnati	55	57	9.5	57%	79%
Colorado	54	57	10	63%	80%
San Diego	53	60	12	67%	85%
Chicago	52	60	12.5	63%	85%
Montreal	50	59	13	77%	84%
Philadelphia	48	63	16	84%	91%
Pittsburgh	48	64	16.5	71%	93%
Milwaukee	47	66	18	74%	97%
Houston	43	70	22	83%	105%

And how do you like Houston's chances if the Mets manage a 60% winning clip from here? The Astros would only need a 105% win rate to catch them. Maybe that's what managers mean when they say they want more than 100% effort?

about the author

Dave Paisley not only believes there's no crying in baseball, but also that mournful sighs should be punishable by suspension. Respond, but at least pretend to appear nonplussed, at drdjp@strikethree.com.