Luck O' the AL

Dave Paisley

A few days ago, I examined the allocation of wins and losses to the pitcher and followed it up with a review of the first half National league pitching performances adjusted for run support and luck.

Once again, here's an explanatory note about the numbers. The first number column is OPS. This is the on-base percentage plus slugging allowed by the pitcher. As a guide, a number below .600 is outstanding, below .700 is very good, above .800 is getting bad and above .900 is atrocious. The next column, RS, is run support per nine innings while the pitcher is in the game. RA is his runs allowed average, similar to ERA, but including unearned runs.

W and L are actual wins and losses, while WPn and LPn are adjusted wins and losses based on neutral run support, as calculated by the Pythagorean method* for the same number of decisions. Finally, W-Wpn is the difference between actual wins and adjusted wins. A positive number indicates additional wins the pitcher received due to luck and high run support, while a negative number indicates bad luck and lousy run support. The table is arranged from worst luck/support to best.

Pitcher	Tm	OPS	RS	RA	W	L	WPn	LPn	W-WPn
Radke	Min	.725	4.01	4.56	5	10	9	6	-4
Schourek	Bos	.789	3.18	5.26	2	8	5	5	-3
Nomo	Det	.788	3.67	4.74	3	7	6	4	-3
Mussina	Bal	.727	3.61	3.88	6	7	9	4	-3
Mays	Min	.830	3.77	6.12	4	10	7	7	-3
Cone	NYA	.899	4.00	6.90	1	7	3	5	-2
Martinez	Bos	.487	5.01	1.61	9	3	11	1	-2
Weaver	Det	.764	3.91	4.88	5	7	7	5	-2
Suppan	KC	.864	4.14	5.92	2	6	4	4	-2
Trachsel	Tam	.818	4.27	5.16	6	8	8	6	-2
Finley	Cle	.696	4.61	4.02	7	6	9	4	-2
Escobar	Tor	.812	4.94	5.65	6	9	8	7	-2
Bottenfield	Ana	.848	5.54	5.80	5	7	6	6	-1
Hernandez	NYA	.735	4.22	4.56	8	6	9	5	-1
Heredia	Oak	.760	7.19	4.79	9	7	9	7	0
Clemens	NYA	.738	5.64	5.46	6	6	6	6	0
Sirotka	ChA	.732	5.82	4.86	8	6	8	6	0
Colon	Cle	.735	6.93	4.28	9	5	9	5	0
Carpenter	Tor	.884	5.88	6.29	7	7	6	8	1
Pettitte	NYA	.773	7.33	4.83	9	5	8	6	1
Mulder	Oak	.862	5.28	6.21	5	4	4	5	1
Appier	Oak	.778	8.02	5.26	8	5	7	6	1
Baldwin	ChA	.768	5.58	4.45	11	4	9	6	2
Halama	Sea	.792	6.41	5.59	8	4	6	6	2
Sele	Sea	.680	8.37	4.18	11	3	9	5	2
Burba	Cle	.795	5.89	5.63	8	4	6	6	2
Milton	Min	.762	6.35	5.71	8	4	6	6	2
Parque	ChA	.778	8.59	4.69	8	2	6	4	2
Hudson	Oak	.719	8.29	4.51	10	2	7	5	3
Eldred	ChA	.737	7.10	5.02	10	2	7	5	3
Wells	Tor	.704	7.22	3.86	15	2	12	5	3
Average			5.71	5.07

(*) Pythagorean method. Win percentage = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

As with the National League, perhaps the best way to look at this is with an example. Right at the top of the list is the most unfortunate pitcher in the majors this year -- Brad Radke. He has allowed opponents a mere .725 OPS, a number bettered only by Pedro Martinez, David Wells, Chuck Finley and Aaron Sele. Unfortunately for Radke, he plays for the Twins, which means poor run support. Minnesota's 4.01 runs per nine innings is about 70 percent of the league average 5.71 (see average numbers at the bottom of the table.)

With just average support, Radke could reasonably expect to have a record of 9-6 rather than the 5-10 you see in the newspaper. When you think about it, this could have meant millions of dollars more for Radke and his agent if they had held out for free agency. But no, they seemed more concerned about staying in the baseball hellhole that is Minnesota for about half the money could have commanded from a decent team. Oh well.

There are a handful of other hard-luck pitchers out there in the American League this year. Pete Schourek, Hideo Nomo, Mike Mussina and Joe Mays (also of the Twins -- big surprise!) have all been victims of extremely poor run support, each with three wins less and three losses more than they deserve.

Of the four, only Mussina deserves special attention. A perennially great pitcher, Mussina's abysmal run support has masked his quality performances. Instead of 6-7 at the break, he could have been more like 9-4 with average run support. So Mussina is having an "off-year" -- well, duh, even Pedro Martinez would suffer with that kind of run support.

Conversely, there are three pitchers who have received a little boost from excellent run support and good run distribution luck. Those guys are David Wells, Cal Eldred and Tim Hudson. Even without this luck, Wells would be 12-5, so there's no taking away the fact that he's having a great year. He just isn't better than Pedro - just luckier. Meanwhile, Eldred and Hudson should be more like 7-5 rather than 10-2, a record that looks a lot more reasonable.

Other recipients of offensive largesse are the White Sox' Jim Parque and the Twins' Eric Milton (so that's where all of Radke's runs went...) who both ended up with a couple of wins more than they deserve. Meanwhile the A's Kevin Appier and the Mariners' Aaron Sele top all comers with more than eight runs of support per nine innings apiece.

There are plenty more fascinating tidbits in the table, and I leave it to you, my faithful readers, to ferret them out and send them my way. I'll be happy to elaborate on the more interesting ones. Meanwhile, don't take those W-L records so seriously, especially if the pitcher has an ERA that seems to be at odds with the record. He could be an unlucky slob like Radke, or an unlucky stiff like Mussina. You can't always judge a book by its cover.

Dave Paisley moonlights as a blackjack dealer on the Strip, where he recalculates your odds of beating the dealer as he deals each card. Explain that it would be fine if he wasn't using his computer each time at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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