As the Reds Turn

Dave Paisley

On today's episode of As the Reds Turn: Ken Griffey Jr. finds out that he isn't really the son of Ken Griffey Sr., but rather the illegitimate half-brother of Cal Ripken Jr. Blinded by emotion and desperate to reunite with his real family, he demands a trade to the Orioles so he can play out the remainder of his career alongside his newfound older brother. Touched by this unexpected display of half-brotherly love, Cal vows to continue playing until Griffey decides to retire.

Far-fetched? Not any more so than Kevin Kennedy's odd assertion that the Reds are shopping Griffey around. The Reds' official press release reads, "There is absolutely no truth to Kevin Kennedy's story regarding a trade of Ken Griffey Jr. He is, in fact, untouchable." Of course, vehement denial is often a precursor to consummation of a deal, so we can't dismiss it out of hand. On the other hand, it may have just been a slow news day over at Fox, who decided to try to keep up with the Jones at Griffey-whipping HQ, aka ESPN.

It has certainly been a dismal year for Griffey and the Reds, but nothing that wasn't entirely predictable. With a new stadium on the horizon, why would either Griffey or the Reds organization give up on what appears to be a long-term dream? That long term dream would be better realized if the club had a GM with a clue, but those are in pretty short supply in the major leagues.

In fact, it's downright ironic that Griffey's old team, the Mariners, are giving Pat Gillick a great opportunity to show that he is still one of the sharper GMs around, as his tenure in Baltimore appears in retrospect to be an Angelos-induced aberration.

But back to the Reds. After half a season, it's quite evident that Bowden failed to make any improvement in the team over the 1999 model, focusing far too much attention on acquiring Griffey and not enough on pitching. Even acquiring Griffey hasn't improved the offense very much, considering Bowden's other moves actually hurt the offense.

Even worse, some players the Reds were relying on just haven't come through this year. Contrast that with their division nemesis, the Cardinals, and we can see two teams going in different directions. Here's a quick look at how the two teams' offenses have changed from last year:

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	1999 Reds		2000 Reds		1999 Cards		2000 Cards
Pos	Player	OPS	Player	OPS	Player	OPS	Player	OPS
C	Taubensee	.875	Taubensee	.660	Marrero	.533	Marrero	.781
1B	Casey	.938	Casey	.759	McGwire	1.121	McGwire	1.230
2B	Reese	.747	Reese	.739	McEwing	.731	Vina	.804
3B	Boone	.775	Boone	.827	Tatis	.957	Tatis	1.251
SS	Larkin	.810	B. Larkin	.912	Renteria	.734	Renteria	.746
LF	Vaughn	.882	Young	.775	Lankford	.873	Lankford	.859
CF	Cameron	.826	Griffey	.958	Drew	.764	Edmonds	1.082
RF	Tucker	.764	Bichette	.829	Davis	.762	Davis	.921
		.827		.812		.809		.959

Of course, numbers like Tatis' are skewed because it's a small sample size this year, but he's also developing as a hitter. Throw in a healthy Jim Edmonds on a big rebound year and you have a monster offense. And all of this with Mark McGwire missing quite a few games.

In contrast, Griffey's having a marginally off-year for him and isn't a huge step up from Mike Cameron, while Taubensee and Casey are having brutal years that more than drags the team numbers down. Meanwhile, Young and Bichette aren't any better than Hammonds and Tucker. If Larkin and Boone weren't having decent years the Reds' offense would be pretty brutal.

The other major difference lies in the pitching. While Bowden was obsessing about Griffey, Jocketty was out completely revamping his pitching staff -- with time left over to snag Jim Edmonds. While Kile, Hentgen, Ankiel and Andy Benes aren't exactly lining up for the Cy Young, steady performance is all it takes to win with the Cards offense behind them.

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1999 Reds		2000 Reds		1999 Cards		2000 Cards
Starter	ERA	Starter	ERA	Starter	ERA	Starter	ERA
Harnisch	3.68	Harnisch	6.27	Bottenfield	3.97	Kile	4.77
Tomko	4.92	R. Bell	5.28	Oliver	4.26	An. Benes	4.36
Villone	4.23	Villone	5.87	Jimenez	5.85	Hentgen	5.16
Parris	3.50	Parris	5.54	Mercker	5.12	Ankiel	3.88
Neagle	4.27	Neagle *	3.52	Stephenson	4.22	Stephenson	4.46
Avery	5.16
Guzman	3.03
	4.26		5.06		4.65		4.54

On the other side of the ledger, the Reds' rotation was patched together and is already being dismantled. Will Scott Williamson make a decent starter? Why did Bowden think he could rely on another season of miraculous middle relief pitching? What was he thinking when he let Guzman get away? Why trade Tomko without a plan to replace him? Bell, Villone, Parris and Harnisch aren't going to cut it in catching the Cards, and I somehow doubt that Bowden has anything up his sleeve to replace Neagle.

The final contrast is in the two teams' bullpens:

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1999 Reds		2000 Reds		1999 Cards		2000 Cards
Reliever	ERA	Reliever	ERA	Reliever	ERA	Reliever	ERA
Graves	3.08	Graves	2.09	Bottalico	4.91	Veres	2.98
Sullivan	3.01	Williamson	3.69	Aybar	5.47	Slocumb	5.40
Reyes	3.79	Sullivan	4.39	Croushore	4.14	Al. Benes	5.24
Williamson	2.41	Aybar	5.19	Painter	4.83	Morris	3.27
	3.01		4.01		4.89		4.22

As noted above, Cincinnati could do no wrong in relief last year, and they've experienced that on occasion this year. However, it's not been enough to duplicate last year's heroics. On the other hand, the Cards have improved, with Alan Benes and Matt Morris coming back from injury. If Jocketty and LaRussa start believing that these guys are really back , then one of the higher priced veteran starters would be expendable - probably Hentgen. So the Cards are in a great position: not overpowering, but with lots of mid-level talent.

Of course, all kinds of mayhem may erupt in the last third of the season, but the Cards are well-positioned and looking to start cruising again, especially when Mac gets back from the DL. Griffey, meanwhile, will still be trying to remember the number of the truck that hit him.

about the author

Dave Paisley his packing up the StrikethreeVolkswagen Beetle and heading to your town. Ask him to reserve a complete set of Pat Meares rookie cards when he comes at drdjp@strikethree.com.