And Another Thing...

Jason Michael Barker

Last week I crowned Toronto's Carlos Delgado and New York's Mike Piazza my first half Most Valuable Players in their respective leagues, as well as picking several more of the usual post-season awards. What follows isn't a look at awards, but rather some thoughts on the biggest surprise and biggest disappointment of the first half, as well as a prediction or two for what's left in store.

Has there been a bigger disappointment in all of baseball this season than the Houston Astros? Numerous sources, myself included, picked the 'Stros to win yet another National League Central title, despite the moves made by the Cardinals and Reds.

The Astros made a move or two themselves, after all -- most notably sending Mike Hampton and Derek Bell to the Mets for Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel. This one looked like a clear winner to me, and I said so at the time. Bell was horrible last season, and Hampton, coming off a career year, seemed set for a decline. Meanwhile, both Cedeno and Dotel figured to be both good and cheap.

Wrong, and wrong again. Bell's bat has come alive this year, to the tune of a .309/.388/.484 line, representing better than a 200-point increase in OPS. After some early trouble, Hampton isn't much off his numbers from last season when you factor in that Shea Stadium doesn't favor pitchers nearly as much as the Astrodome did.

On the other hand, neither Cedeno nor Dotel has been much of a factor for the Astros this season. Cedeno struggled the first month of the season, hit well in May to raise his OBP to a respectable .365, but then ruptured a tendon in his left ring finger late in the month and hasn't played since. Dotel, who seemed a good bet to thrive under Larry Dierker's care, has been relegated to the bullpen after posting a 5.84 ERA in 16 starts.

The Astros' struggles go deeper than the trade with the Mets, however. The normally fabulous Craig Biggio has seen both his batting average and slugging percentage dip well below his career numbers. Billy Wagner, one of the best closers in the game, pitched well out of the gate but struggled mightily in May and June, before it was finally revealed he had been pitching with a partially torn ligament in his pitching elbow. He's out for the remainder of the season after surgery.

The rest of the pitching staff has struggled as well, though how much of that you want to attribute to Enron Field is up to you. Of the five regular starters (Shane Reynolds, Chris Holt, Scott Elarton, Jose Lima and Dotel), only Reynolds and Holt have ERA's under five. Barely. Reynolds checks in at 4.96, Holt 4.98. Jose Lima, a 21-game winner last season, is 2-13 with a 7.29 ERA in 2000.

Houston has been so bad (their 32-61 record is worst in the majors) they don't even have any competition for biggest disappointment. Though I suppose fans in Cincinnati and Tampa Bay might have a word or two to say about that...

And the biggest surprise? After carefully weighing both the Marlins and Angels, I'm going with the White Sox, who currently boast the best record in all of baseball and a 9.5-game lead in the American League Central over the normally powerful Cleveland Indians. That the Sox are a good team this year shouldn't be a surprise; that they're this good should be.

Jerry Manuel's club leads the AL in runs scored with 580 (through Monday) and is currently third in ERA (4.60) behind the Red Sox and Mariners, though the Yankees are hot on their heels at 4.61.

This leads into the predictions section of the article. My first prediction: The White Sox will hold off the Tribe to win the AL Central. I do think things will wind up closer than they currently are, unless the Indians decide to pack things in early and dump some players before the trading deadline.

I'll go with the Mariners in the West, thanks to their pitching advantage over the A's, who have already started to show signs of slowing. The M's have the pitching to not only win the West, but enough extra that they should be able to fill in holes elsewhere on the team by dealing a pitcher or two as needed.

There appears to be a great race brewing out East, as the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox are all in contention for the division title. As much as I'd love not to, I'm picking the Yankees once again because they've got the resources to make whatever deals necessary in the coming months to ensure another first place finish.

Moving to the National League, expect more of what you're already seeing: Atlanta in the East, St. Louis in the Central, and... the West might be another story. At first, picking the Diamondbacks seems easy, but can their aging group hold up for the remainder of the year? They just might be one Steve Finley injury away from a second place finish. What of the Giants, then? Dusty Baker seems to squeeze more wins out of his club than the talent dictates each season, but at the same time he has a tendency to drive a pitching staff into the ground. Like the D-Backs, one serious injury (Bonds, Kent) leaves them out of contention.

I'll go with Arizona on this one, primarily because of their pitching. Randy Johnson and Brian Anderson are very good and solid, respectively, and both Armando Reynoso and Omar Daal are better than they've pitched this season. One of them will likely turn it around to finish out the year, and the emergence of Geraldo Guzman should solidify things.

I don't see the same potential upside in the Giants, who already have three starters (Shawn Estes, Livan Hernandez, Kirk Rueter) pitching well. Further, outside of Robb Nen and Felix Rodriguez they don't have much in the bullpen, which could back to haunt them as the season wears on.

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