Heaven, Hell or Houston

Dave Paisley

One of the most puzzling conundrums of this year is why NBC chose to spend millions to show the nation the All-Star game and then obliterate much of the action with lame interviews from the likes of Jim "Rose-baiter" Grey. Another most puzzling occurrence is the abrupt descent of the Astros, who are plummeting to earth as fast as, well, something that plummets really fast. In fact, the Astros aren't plummeting so much as they've suffered a major malfunction while still parked on the launch platform.

On the surface, the offseason wasn't kind to them, but it didn't look like disaster was imminent. Losing Mike Hampton wasn't pleasant, but they appeared to have received decent compensation. It looked like a short-term hit, but perhaps a long term benefit, especially when you factor in that they were able to unload Derek Bell. Of course, Bell is beating the tar out of the ball like never before (well, maybe like 1998) but who expected that?

Some people have blamed Enron Park for the 'Stros' woes, but if anything the home team should adjust to the new park quicker than opponents, and after all, conditions are the same for both teams. I decided I'd delve into the numbers a little deeper, comparing the team this year with last year's model.

Here's the past two years' starting lineups, side by side:

1999 Season Pos Player OPS G R HR RBI BB SO C Eusebio .709 103 31 4 33 40 67 1B Bagwell 1.045 162 143 42 126 149 127 2B Biggio .843 160 123 16 73 88 107 3B Caminiti .862 78 45 13 56 46 58 SS Spiers .752 127 56 4 39 47 45 LF Hidalgo .748 108 49 15 56 56 73 CF Everett .969 123 86 25 108 50 94 RF Bell .656 128 61 12 66 50 129 Avg/Total .838

2000 Season to date Pos Player OPS G R HR RBI BB SO C Meluskey .891 70 29 9 43 30 42 1B Bagwell .973 86 78 23 64 55 70 2B Biggio .748 83 56 5 29 56 62 3B Caminiti 1.001 59 42 15 45 42 37 SS Spiers .791 67 22 1 21 25 19 LF Alou 1.077 56 34 15 48 22 20 CF Cedeno .758 44 31 4 19 28 26 RF Hidalgo .993 79 52 23 61 34 60 Avg/Total .907

Overall, Meluskey is a big improvement at catcher, and Bagwell is a little off, but not seriously so. Biggio is off quite a bit, but Caminiti, at least while healthy, is having a great year. Spiers is about the same, while the outfield overall is maybe a shade better than last year's crew. Overall, the starting offense is doing a great job across the board. We can attribute some of that to Enron, but not all of it by any means.

Next, let's take a look at the bench.

1999 Season Pos Player OPS G R HR RBI BB SO IF Bogar .671 106 44 4 31 38 52 IF Gutierrez .690 85 33 1 25 37 45 OF Javier .827 20 12 0 4 9 8 OF Mieske .784 54 13 5 22 6 22 OF Ward .784 64 11 8 30 9 31 C Bako .690 73 16 2 17 26 57 Avg/Total .714

2000 Season to date Pos Player OPS G R HR RBI BB SO IF Bogar .454 59 10 2 11 17 28 IF Lugo .708 44 15 1 9 11 30 OF Berkman .972 51 35 12 33 22 37 OF Mieske .451 47 5 0 2 6 14 OF Ward .727 65 19 12 28 11 38 C Eusebio .608 49 9 2 12 17 28 Avg/Total .605

Of course, some of these guys are playing every day now due to injuries, but overall, it's a pretty bleak picture except for Berkman, with performance that can best be described as woeful. Is it the main cause of the Astro's flameout, though? I doubt it.

Next up is the starting pitching.

1999 Season Pos Player ERA W L IP BB SO SV HR SP Hampton 2.90 22 4 239.0 101 177 0 12 SP Lima 3.58 21 10 246.1 44 187 0 30 SP Reynolds 3.85 16 14 231.2 37 197 0 23 SP Holt 4.66 5 13 164.0 57 115 1 12 SP Bergman 5.36 4 6 99.0 26 38 0 9 Avg/Total 3.84 980

2000 Season to date Pos Player ERA W L IP BB SO SV HR SP Dotel 5.61 1 5 94.2 46 97 1 20 SP Lima 7.36 2 13 106.1 37 78 0 29 SP Reynolds 4.17 6 5 114.1 36 81 0 16 SP Holt 4.99 3 10 115.1 43 83 0 14 SP Elarton 5.74 8 3 84.2 39 56 0 15 Avg/Total 5.55 515.1

We're finally getting close to the source of the problem. Hampton's replacement, Octavio Dotel, is obviously, at this stage of his career, no Mike Hampton. On the other hand, he's the third best starter on the team, better than Scott Elarton. Whoa, you say, but Elarton is 8-3 and Dotel is 1-5. Sure, but Elarton is getting 8.5 runs per nine innings in run support, while Dotel is getting a closer to average 6.0. There are still some weird factors surrounding the comparison. Elarton is either very good or very bad. In 7 of his 15 starts he has gone at least 6 innings and given up only 1 or 2 runs. And guess what - they are all wins. Other than that he tends to get pummeled. Dotel, on the other hand, tends to give up a few runs each time, being much more consistent, playing in close games. And it seems that when he's on, so is his opponent.

The big story in the rotation has been Jose Lima, though. He's allowed just about his homer total of last year in 40% of the innings. Enron Field you say? Not really. He's allowed 16 homers in 53 innings at home and 13 on the road in about the same amount of pitching. Take away the extra three homers and he still bites. Maybe the real guy to feel sorry for is Chris Holt. Pitches decently, average ERA, but can't buy a win. You can put that down to run support, too. Not only that, he's also unlucky, too, just like Dotel.

So here's where the losing Mike Hampton really hurts. You take away a #1 starter and replace him with an up and coming youngster, who, if all had gone well, would have been a #5 guy. Maybe the Astros expected Lima or Reynolds to step up to Hampton-esque performance. Well, that wasn't smart. Overall, the effe3ct has been to boost the ERA of the rotation by almost two full runs from last year. Put down maybe half a run to Enron, and it still smacks of poor decision making.

The final piece of the puzzle is the bullpen.

1999 Season Pos Player ERA W L IP BB SO SV HR RP Cabrera 2.15 4 0 29.1 9 28 0 3 RP Elarton 3.48 9 5 124.0 43 121 1 8 RP Powell 4.32 5 4 75.0 40 77 4 3 RP Williams 4.41 2 1 67.1 35 53 0 4 RP Henry 4.65 2 3 40.2 24 36 2 8 RP Miller 5.07 3 2 49.2 29 37 1 6 CL Wagner 1.57 4 1 74.2 23 124 39 5 Avg/Total 3.65 460.2

2000 Season to date Pos Player ERA W L IP BB SO SV HR RP Cabrera 6.32 0 2 37.0 12 24 0 6 RP Slusarski 4.10 1 5 37.1 12 25 1 4 RP Powell 4.70 1 1 23.0 17 12 0 1 RP Maddux 6.26 2 2 27.1 12 17 0 6 RP Henry 4.34 1 2 45.2 23 37 1 10 RP Valdes 2.82 1 2 22.1 12 16 2 0 CL Wagner 6.18 2 4 27.2 18 28 6 6 Avg/Total 5.02 220.1

Overall, nothing much to write home about, but a sore-armed Billy Wagner really hurt the team badly. Again, where's the smart, solicitous management that takes care of its guys for the long term? The bullpen ERA is also up about a run and a half, which also hurts in that those 18 losses were decisions taken away from starters. Again, comparing to last year, that's a whole season's worth of bullpen losses in just half a season of work.

The Astros used to be highly regarded as a team that was well managed, especially in the pitching department. The wheels appear to have fallen off for four reasons - the new park, bad luck, injuries and poor decision making. The first one isn't much of an excuse at all, as I noted above. To some extent, I believe the bad luck and injuries stem from some poor decision making that forced the pace a little and demanded performance from a staff that simply isn't the staff it once was.

One bad season may not be enough to cause heads to roll, but Astros management better figure out a way to get better in 2001 and fast.

Dave Paisley isn't happy about the Astros woes, but at least he rejoices in the fact that the Reds aren't doing much better. Commiserate with Dave at drdjp@strikethree.com.