NL State of Play

Dave Paisley

Following up last week's look at how the AL is shaping up, here's a similar analysis of the senior circuit. Sure, there's a home run derby tonight, but we all know that only counts in Ken Griffey Jr.'s mind.

First, a reminder on my cunning methodology used in the following analysis. The W-L columns are wins and losses as of July 7, as are team ERA and OPS (On-base Plus Slugging). Runs Scored and Allowed are self-explanatory, while Run Difference is the difference between them (hope you're keeping up with this.) Wins Pythag is the number of wins predicted by the Pythagorean method. It's a useful tool for figuring out how many wins a team ought to have given average luck.

W-WP is the difference between actual wins so far and predicted wins from the Pythagorean projection. A positive number indicates some kind of lucky anomaly, while a negative number generally indicates bad luck or some other more deterministic effect at work. Finally, Season Wins is the number of wins a team would have if you take their current wins and add the additional wins they would get if they played the remainder of the season at their Pythagorean win rate.

All of that assumes that a team has no major injuries and that they make no great acquisitions. Used correctly, this data could be used to help a team know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. Yeah, we're talkin' to you, Houston.

In the NL East, nothing much is different from prior years, with the Braves and Mets starting to distance themselves from the pack, as can be seen in the table below.

Team	W	L	ERA	OPS	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Difference	Wins Pythag	W-WP	Season Wins
Atlanta	50	35	4.33	.796	439	393	46	47	3	93
New York	47	35	4.61	.811	449	410	39	45	2	91
Florida	43	42	4.37	.738	381	405	-24	40	3	79
Montreal	41	40	5.01	.784	402	437	-35	37	4	78
Philadelphia	38	45	4.67	.746	373	420	-47	37	1	73

What is interesting is that every team in the division is performing a little above its Pythagorean projection, making better use of their run differential than they ought to. The best example is Montreal, who were four games above projection earlier in the season, but looked like a .500 team all the way. Sure enough, they've been a .500 team since then, still bucking the odds a little, but incapable of breaking out and chasing the Braves and Mets. Similarly, the Marlins are a little ahead of where they should be, but show no indications of being able to stay above the break-even point.

Philadelphia has made a struggle back to respectability offensively, but they too are going nowhere fast. So when do the Andy Ashby sweepstakes begin? Meanwhile, the Braves and Mets will take another run at the playoffs together, although the wild card looks like it culd go to the West division.

Competition in the Central division (much like in the AL) is a joke and will continue to be so for the remainder of the season. As woeful as the Reds' pitching has been, it's still perhaps no surprise that they continue to hold down second place. The Cardinals are parlaying the best run differential in the league into an easy romp to the division crown. Benes, Kile and Hentgen may not be contenders for the Cy Young award, but they've stayed healthy -- a major achievement for Cardinals starters.

Team	W	L	ERA	OPS	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Difference	Wins Pythag	W-WP	Season Wins
St Louis	50	34	4.63	.850	492	411	81	49	1	96
Cincinnati	41	43	4.89	.779	422	455	-33	39	2	77
Pittsburgh	36	47	4.58	.760	395	435	-40	38	-2	72
Milwaukee	35	50	4.92	.722	385	467	-82	35	0	66
Chicago	33	50	5.31	.771	406	477	-71	35	-2	66
Houston	28	56	5.47	.794	445	500	-55	37	-9	62

The Astros are the most curious case in the majors this season. Early on, they were about even with their opponents in run scoring, but an early spate of close losses caused their record to slip way below their Pythagorean projection. Right now, they are a massive nine games below where their runs scored and allowed say they should be. They're just a shell-shocked, demoralized mess and they'll be lucky to creep up to 60 wins, even if their luck evens out. Oh, and it might help if Jose Lima stops doing his Christmas tree impersonation.

Of course, the Astros' problems have masked the fact that the Cubs still suck pretty badly, and that Pittsburgh hasn't been able to build on last year's modest success. And how I revel in the plight of the Reds. Jim Bowden's obsessive focus on acquiring Ken Griffey Jr. blinded him to the fact that his starting pitching blew. And he ignored the second cardinal rule: never believe that you can win a division with fluky middle relief. (The first rule, of course, is to never get involved in a land war in Asia.)

Over in the West, we actually have something of a horse race, involving up to four teams if they all make the right moves. The Diamondbacks are only a modest 37 runs in credit but have parlayed that into winning four games more than they deserve, while their division rivals are all underperforming.

If luck were even, only one win would separate the Snakes, Rockies, Giants and Dodgers. Which will make for an interesting race to the finish. When you throw in the wild card race against the Mets, too, the West will be the division to watch. If I were the Rockies, Giants or Dodgers, I'd be out there scouting for help, probably pitching, as hard as I could (Helloooo, Mr. Ashby) as soon as I could. One decent pitcher or key injury could make the difference.

Team	W	L	ERA	OPS	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Difference	Wins Pythag	W-WP	Season Wins
Arizona	50	35	4.21	.774	424	387	37	46	4	92
Colorado	45	37	5.28	.838	512	447	65	47	-2	90
San Francisco	44	38	4.91	.872	508	446	62	46	-2	89
Los Angeles	43	40	4.50	.818	455	403	52	47	-4	87
San Diego	37	47	4.72	.760	413	437	-24	40	-3	74

San Diego, of course, is already toast, given that they're so far back with three teams between them and the leaders. But really, how many fire sales can the Padres hold in a decade?

So we can kiss goodbye to the Marlins, Expos and Phillies, all of the Central division except the Cards, and the Padres. What veteran talent is out there to cherry pick for the clubs still in contention? Do all of these clubs know they're dead already? The next three weeks will give us the answers to these questions and more.

about the author

Dave Paisley has recently been selected to set odds for several Vegas casinos. Next time you're in Sam's Town and want to lay a bet that the Brewers' team OPS will be greater than .600, think of Dave, who resides at drdjp@strikethree.com.