Flash: Pedro to win AL CY

Dave Paisley

Well, I go away for a week to a place far from civilization and my team, the Mariners, decides not to lose while I'm gone. No sooner do I get back than the winning streak is history. C'est la vie, I guess. Something that didn't change much while I was gone was the race for the American League Cy Young race, although there have been some interesting developments with our runaway leader.

In a similar vein to the MVP award, the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voters tend to focus on the Triple Crown categories for the voting process, those being Wins, ERA and Strikeouts. There's also a slight preference for winning percentage, given that a guy with a 20-10 record won't do as well in the voting as a 20-4 guy, all other categories being equal.

Given that propensity, I decided to do the BBWAA guys hard work for them and scope out a table for them to work from. The way it works is pretty simple - 100 points for the leader in each category, with a proportional number of points for other pitchers. David Wells leads the AL in wins with 12, so he gets 100. Pedro Martinez gets a proportional 75 points for his 9 wins. ERA is inverted, of course, as lower is better.

Here's how the leaderboard looks as of June 27.

Pitcher	Team	G	W	L	ERA	SO	Win pts	ERA pts	K pts	Total
P Martinez	Bos	14	9	3	1.44	140	75	100	100	275
D Wells	Tor	16	12	2	3.55	89	100	41	64	204
T Hudson	Oak	16	9	2	4.30	88	75	33	63	171
J Baldwin	ChA	15	10	3	3.88	65	83	37	46	167
C Eldred	ChA	15	9	2	3.84	76	75	38	54	167
C Finley	Cle	16	6	5	3.99	103	50	36	74	160
B Colon	Cle	12	7	4	4.02	90	58	36	64	158
D Burba	Cle	15	8	3	5.72	93	67	25	66	158
A Sele	Sea	16	9	3	4.32	60	75	33	43	151
G Heredia	Oak	15	9	5	4.02	54	75	36	39	149
M Mussina	Bal	17	5	7	3.99	96	42	36	69	146
R Helling	Tex	16	7	7	4.11	72	58	35	51	145
K Appier	Oak	13	8	3	4.05	59	67	36	42	144

There's no doubt that if Pedro Martinez is healthy enough and remains so for the rest of the season that he will win the award handily. While David Wells' 12-2 record, pro-rated to a full season, would normally be enough to walk away with the award, I doubt that any sane voter would choose him over Pedro. Well, maybe that's not a good example, as the sanity of several BBWAA voters is questionable. Wins are, of course, the most dependent of the three categories on factors beyond the pitcher's control. It's possible to lose a bunch of games even when pitching well - see Mike Mussina, the only guy on the leaderboard with a losing record, for evidence of that.

I think the most amazing piece of information in the whole table is that the second best guy in the league (Wells) only rates 41 points in ERA. That's how good Pedro is. And how about the second place in strikeouts (Finley) only gets 74 points.

But what if Pedro were to succumb to arm trouble or trip over a child's toy and miss the rest of the season? It then becomes a pretty tight race, with Wells having the edge at this point. He would take the ERA lead and not be a close fourth in strikeouts. Also, the name recognition factor over the likes of emerging youngsters like Oakland's Tim Hudson and Chicago's James Baldwin would help. The other main challenger at this point would be the venerable Cal Eldred who is pitching well and benefiting from a potent White Sox offense.

I'd definitely have to say, though that a pitcher needs at least eight wins at this point to have a decent chance at making a second half run at Martinez and Wells. That would rule out wily veteran lefty (patent pending) Chuck Finley and his stablemates Dave Burba and Bartolo Colon, along with Rick Helling. Kevin Appier and Aaron Sele have the stuff and the team backing to make a run, though. And pity poor Mike Mussina, who once again is getting razzed for not winning when he has numbers better than most except for wins.

So, barring some major mishap, this looks like a walkover at this point, with some interesting candidates forming a pack to chase the current leaders. Will the NL be any more interesting, I hear you ask. Maybe I'll answer that one in a few days.

about the author

Dave Paisley came back from a week in the wilds with a full week's growth of beard and a hunted look in his eyes. Be sure not to play Duelling Banjos anywhere near him right now and sympathize if you can at drdjp@strikethree.com.