NL Report Card

Dave Paisley

With the season roughly sixty games old, the divisions are starting to shake out a little. The hot starts have cooled off, the frigid slumps are thawing out and the universe is drifting back onto an even keel. Back in mid-May I took a look at how each team was performing relative to its runs scored and runs allowed (the Pythagorean projection). A month later I thought I'd review what has happened since then and peer into the future a bit.

Listed below is the number of wins each team would have if their Pythagorean projection from May was stretched out over the full season. Then I'll list the number of wins based on their numbers as of today, and their actual current performance extended over the full season. Finally, I'll show how the latter two can be blended to predict total season wins (predicted wins).

As usual, I'll start out East and wend my way through the Central to the West. Here's how the East stacks up.

NL East
Team	Pythag. Perf. as of 14-May	Pythag. Perf. as of 13-June	Actual Performance	Predicted Wins
Atlanta	99	98	105	101
New York	71	80	90	84
Montreal	78	75	86	79
Florida	84	72	73	72
Philadelphia	71	59	61	60

The first thing to note is that Atlanta has been remarkably consistent. Their projection has drifted from 99 wins to 98, but their actual performance has them on a pace to win 105. That kind of discrepancy (within about five or six games) is within normal range. It can be attributed to mild luck, a good bullpen, clutch hitting in close games or a combination of those things.

Assuming that Atlanta has had some good luck, karma or whatever to this point, but will revert to neutral for the rest of the season, I estimate they're good for about 101 wins. And no matter what happens, it doesn't appear that there is much of chance of anyone giving them a decent race.

Take the Mets (please!). In May they were nothing very special, and were on a pace to win a mere 71 games. They've picked up the pace a little in terms of raw performance, and should end up with 80 wins. But, like Atlanta, they have outperformed their projection, and if they could keep it up, they would win 90 games. Well, I don't see how, and averaging it all out, I see 84 wins in their future.

If the Mets are making the most of what they've got, the Expos are using magic pixie dust. Actually, I think I might know what the story with Les Expos is. They have a fairly dichotomous pitching staff. Pavano, Vazquez, and now Armas are really pretty good, and are winning games. Irabu, Hermanson and a cast of scrubs are really pitching poorly and are getting hammered.

So, their runs allowed are concentrated in a relatively few losses. That's a kind of performance that can be maintained, and possibly improved, as the lousy pitchers are replaced with average guys. Nevertheless, I wouldn't bank on the Expos keeping up that pace. They're more likely to fall around the 79-win mark, as shown in the table.

After a hot start, the Marlins are right on track for 72 wins, while the Phillies are dead on for an abysmal season with around 60 wins.

NL Central
Team	Pythag. Perf. as of 14-May	Pythag. Perf. as of 13-June	Actual Performance	Predicted Wins
St Louis	101	93	90	92
Cincinnati	75	75	84	78
Pittsburgh	76	75	72	74
Chicago	67	70	67	69
Houston	81	76	57	69
Milwaukee	62	65	66	65

There are some really odd things going on in the NL Central. St. Louis has stabilized out to a steady prediction of 92 wins or so, but they're the only stable team in the division. Unless you count the Brewers, that is -- dead on track for 65 wins and last place.

Cincinnati is one of those teams that has parlayed a poor run differential into a good record - partly I'm sure due to their high-performing middle and late relief. They can hang on in close games, or at least they have been able to so far. They ought to be in 75-win territory, but with their prior good fortune will probably end up around 78, far off the pace set by the Cards.

The Cubs have remained steady at around 70 projected wins, and with the potential unloading of Sammy Sosa, they may not even do that well. The Astros are the real story here, though. They have been as unlucky as the Reds and Expos combined have been lucky. The Astros have performed like a .500 team so far, but are only on a pace to win 57 games at their current rate.

That speaks of bad luck, lousy relief and a whole host of other problems. Even if their luck were to turn, they will barely make 70 wins. Given all the above, the Cards ought to waltz the division if they prevent themselves from making silly moves.

NL West
Team	Pythag. Perf. as of 14-May	Pythag. Perf. as of 13-June	Actual Performance	Predicted Wins
Arizona	107	97	98	97
Los Angeles	90	94	88	92
Colorado	75	90	93	91
San Francisco	89	92	78	87
San Diego	72	77	71	74

The NL West has its own particular quirks. The Diamondbacks continue to roll, and are earning every win. They've now settled into a nice steady pace to win 97 or so games. The quirkiness comes in the form of the three teams chasing them.

The Dodgers have a run differential that should have served them better than it has. Instead of the 94-win pace they should be setting, they're only on an 88-win pace so far. Combine future average luck with their past performance and they should end up around 92 wins. That's within hailing distance of the Snakes, so a judicious pickup and a little luck could have the Dodgers right in contention.

The Rockies are no doubt a pleasant surprise to the denizens of Denver, especially with a team that's lacked Larry Walker while featuring Tom Goodwin and Brian Hunter in the lineup on a regular basis. Now on a steady pace to win in the low nineties, like the Dodgers, the Rockies could make a run with the right acquisition, or if Walker comes back and goes on a tear. Other than the muscular kind, that is.

The Giants may be paying for past seasons' good karma, as they are making the worst of the run differential they're generating. If they can shed their bad luck (and there are signs they are) then they could creep up close to 90 wins. I doubt that they will be able to make a serious run at the division, though, simply because there are three teams ahead of them.

Meanwhile, the Padres bring up the rear, as expected. With their pitching rotation in tatters, it's unlikely to change.

To sum it all up, the numbers above can be viewed as a baseline for the rest of the season. If a team expects to do better, they'll have to rely either on luck, clubhouse chemistry or acquiring better players. And, of course, bad luck could derail a team. I can't imagine the Diamondbacks winning 95 games if Randy Johnson blows an elbow tomorrow. But I do think we can safely rule out the Brewers making the playoffs.

about the author

Dave Paisley likes other things besides numbers -- filberts, for instance. Dare him to chart that at drdjp@strikethree.com.