NL Rookies:
Armed and Dangerous

Jason Michael Barker

Following up on Wednesday's American League rookies, we today turn our attention to the Senior Circuit, home to a plethora of premium young pitchers. And -- surprise, surprise -- none of them pitch for the Braves! Just for good measure, we'll throw in a slugging catcher, a speedy shortstop and a first baseman who's finally getting his chance.

First up is Byung-Hyun Kim, Arizona's flame-throwing, sidearm-throwing reliever. Kim has had some save opportunities this season, thanks both to Matt Mantei's stint on the disabled list and his overall ineffectiveness (ERA over seven and one walk per inning). Kim, on the other hand, has been nothing short of dominant. In 27.l innings he's allowed just 16 hits while striking out 47 batters, the latter a number which would make both Billy Wagner and Randy Johnson proud.

Walks have been his stumbling block in the past, but he seems to have a better handle on them this season, having walked 11 men so far. That's not great, of course, but it's perfectly acceptable when you allow as few hits as Kim does. His sidearm deliver has been particularly tough on right-handers, who are hitting just .145 against him.

Arizona made quite an investment in getting Mantei from the Marlins last year, so it's unlikely they'll give up on him any time soon. They might not have a choice, however, if Kim continues out-pitch him at every turn.

Despite a great September call-up last year, Eric Gagne pitched so poorly this spring that he found himself in the minors to start the year. He's pitched well since his April 15 return to the Dodgers, and Tuesday night put together his best start of the year at Texas: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. The performance earned him his first win of the year and brought his ERA down to a respectable 3.77, better than all but Kevin Brown among LA's starters.

Like many young pitchers, as we'll see later on, Gagne's biggest problems this season have been home runs and walks, as he's allowed 10 of the former and 27 of the latter in his 45.1 innings. His other peripherals have been just fine, however, including less than one hit per inning and nearly one strikeout per inning. He's in a good pitching environment in Dodger Stadium, and should be just fine once he adjusts to the hitters and umpires in the league. One minor concern is his workload -- he threw close to 200 innings last season -- but on the positive side, he's already 24 years old.

Keeping with young pitchers, we come to perhaps the crown jewel of them all -- Rick Ankiel. Like Gagne, Ankiel is walking too many batters (38 in 61.1 innings), but he's getting away with it because he's allowed only 50 hits. He's also struck out 68 batters and has a 3.69 ERA. Right now Ankiel isn't able to get past the fifth or sixth inning in his starts, because all those walks and strikeouts mean high pitch counts early in the game. He's only pitched into the seventh three times in 11 starts, and for the most part his pitch counts haven't been excessive. Once he learns to pitch a bit more economically and get into the seventh regularly, injury risk will be the only thing keeping him from being a true ace.

Cincinnati's Rob Bell doesn't get nearly the hype Ankiel does, but he's a fine pitcher in his own right. And in terms of his walk rate, he's been a bit better than Ankiel so far this season. Bell's numbers this year -- 66 IP, 60 H, 29 BB, 58 K, 4.36 ERA -- are particularly amazing when you consider how little minor league experience he has. Because he missed half of last year with an elbow injury, and his experience above A-ball consists of just 12 AA starts last season. The injury didn't require surgery, but is a bit worrisome considering his best pitch might be his curve, which is hard on the elbow.

Finally, we get to a non-pitcher. At 27, Houston's Mitch Meluskey is older than the other players on this list, but he's no less a rookie. Expected to win at least a share of the catching duties last season, he suffered a shoulder injury after playing just ten games and missed the rest of the year. He's back with a vengeance this season, and has won the majority of the time behind the dish thanks to his .292/.386/.546 performance with the bat -- not bad numbers for someone not named Piazza or Pudge. Meluskey has some pop in his bat, as evidenced by his 7 homers and 12 doubles in 130 at-bats, and draws a good number of walks. At his age it's unlikely he's going to get much better than he already is, but nearly every team in baseball would love to have this sort of production from their catcher.

Staying off the mound for another minute, we come to Atlanta's Rafael Furcal. Furcal has yet to hit for any power whatsoever (.368 slugging percentage), and to me his mere seven doubles are a surprise given his excellent speed. That same speed an his on-base skills make him a very valuable player even without power, however, and he should be a good top-of-the-order hitter for years to come. Furcal's .297 batting average and 23 walks have produced a .391 OBP this year, and he's stolen 11 bases in 14 attempts. Because he's just 19, it's not unreasonable to assume that he'll develop a bit more power as he matures, as often happens with young players.

Our final non-pitcher is Pat Burrell, Philadelphia's recent 1B call-up. Burrell was a monster of a hitter in the minors, and got his shot when Rico Brogna went down to injury. Burrell is off to a rough start so far at .235/.316/.490, but he's hit three homers in 51 at-bats and that .490 slugging percentage is excellent given his batting average. Really the average is the only thing that's a problem, because he's drawn six walks as well. We're also looking at a ridiculously small sample -- if he goes three-for-five tomorrow, his average will jump up to .268 and his OBP and SLG will look great as well.

Back to the young pitchers, this time Brad Penny of the Marlins. Like Ankiel, Bell and Gagne, Penny has allowed less than a hit per inning. He's also been better about giving up the long ball, with just seven allowed in 62.2 innings. His problem (and stop me if you've heard this before) has been the walks, at close to five per nine innings. Unlike the others, his problems are showing up in his ERA, which stands at 5.46 at present. Keeping in mind that young pitchers are risky and inconsistent in the short-term, Penny has great long-term potential. Be patient.

Finally, Tony Armas Jr. of the Expos. Armas came over to Montreal along with Carl Pavano in exchange for Pedro Martinez, in a trade that seems like years ago. Pedro is Pedro, but if both Armas and Pavano pitch as they have so far this season and continue to improve, perhaps that trade won't look so lopsided in a few years.

Armas' 1-3 record in five starts isn't a good representation of how he's pitched, but his 2.51 ERA and 21 hits allowed in 32.1 innings are. He's also allowed just two homers, a good sign. He has, of course, walked too many (18) and his low strikeout total (20) might be a concern. He never struck out a ton of batters in the minors despite great stuff, but was always successful. He's very young and I think there's an adjustment period coming -- like Pavano and Javier Vazquez, it might take him a year or two in the majors to truly become a successful pitcher.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker confused us for a while when he said he was going to evaluate the National League Wookies, as we hadn't heard that Chewbacca's son was ready for the majors yet. But when we told him to swallow those cookies and speak clearly, we figured out what he was up to. Tell him you appreciate the clarity at jmb@strikethree.com.