Got the Trots

Matt Bruce

Trot Nixon won the game last Sunday night, and in doing so won a place in the hearts of Red Sox Nation. His home run broke a scoreless tie, gave Pedro the victory and punctuated a series triumph at Yankee Stadium. Fans love him; friends of mine want me to eat crow for suggesting a year ago that Trot would never even be a league-average right fielder.

But is Trot Nixon overrated? Don't get me wrong, I ask the question not out of spite. I actually do want to be wrong about Trot, as much as I want a certain magazine's World Series prediction to be correct. The problem with following baseball too long is that the limitations of one's own favorite teams become all too clear.

As if to answer my question, a certain other web site provides convenient links to player stats by league and position. Without further ado, here's a table of regular American League right fielders and their 2000 performance through the end of May:

Player	Team	Age	Games	2B	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dye, Jermaine	KC	26	47	16	14	44	.418	.678	1.096
Ramirez, Manny	CLE	28	47	12	13	47	.419	.623	1.042
Buhner, Jay	SEA	35	41	11	11	38	.396	.586	.982
Nixon, Trot	BOS	26	44	15	7	32	.399	.571	.970
Salmon, Tim	ANA	31	52	13	12	28	.397	.534	.931
Lawton, Matt	MIN	28	53	17	3	36	.430	.480	.910
Ordonez, Magglio	CWS	26	47	10	10	35	.364	.525	.889
Gonzalez, Juan	DET	30	40	15	9	19	.316	.522	.838
Belle, Albert	BAL	33	50	16	6	26	.356	.468	.824
Mondesi, Raul	TOR	29	53	14	10	27	.322	.493	.815
O'Neill, Paul	NYY	37	48	11	6	32	.352	.443	.795
Guillen, Jose	TAM	24	15	3	2	6	.339	.455	.794
Stairs, Matt	OAK	32	48	8	8	27	.335	.398	.733
Kapler, Gabe	TEX	24	24	5	3	12	.265	.356	.621

From the numbers we see that American League right fielders are, as a group, among the best hitters in baseball. This is one reason why I was skeptical about how much Nixon could help his team in that role. The fact that he has the fourth-highest OPS in the group, so far, is quite impressive.

His boosters will lift him still higher on two counts. First, he is a decade younger than Jay Buhner, and second, a decade healthier. Speaking of health, look who just went on the disabled list this week. Manny Ramirez is arguably the best hitter in the AL, yet he is quite expensive compared to Trot. That money brings no return until he heals. Still, let us stipulate that Ramirez and Dye are a cut above the rest of the league. If anyone disagrees, I'd be happy to do business with you some day.

The more interesting comparison, for this year's numbers, is between Buhner, Nixon and Salmon. All are within four RBI of each other. That is a bit deceptive given their relative number of games played, but one can easily imagine that Salmon just had a bad week. Indeed, he had a bad fortnight, hitting .163 as late as April 19. I suggest that this slump, Buhner's injuries and Nixon's inability to hit southpaws (or the unwillingness of Jimy Williams to let him try) pretty much balance out.

More to the point, all are reaching base at just shy of a .400 clip. Their difference in OPS comes entirely from slugging percentage. Home runs explain the difference between Buhner and Nixon but do not explain why Nixon is outplaying Salmon. The real difference there lies in batting average, a .321-to-.275 advantage for Mr. Trot. Pity that none of Salmon's 36 walks show up in the slugging column.

(By the way, do not assume that Nixon makes his living banging hits off the green monster. He has a 1.048 OPS on the road compared to .888 at home, and 23 of his 32 RBI have come away from Fenway.)

Moving down the list, we have Lawton, who's not your average AL slugger. He has never shown home run power in the major leagues, and he's coming off a terrible season. With just three home runs, it's easy to see why he slugs below .500. Yet he already has 17 doubles, two more than Trot and just one less than he did in 118 games last year. I would build a team around Matt Lawton types before I built a team around Trot Nixon types, though I have hard time explaining exactly why.

One would expect Magglio Ordonez to be higher on the list than he is. Surprisingly, Magglio is two months older than Trot. He's made good progress in his plate discipline, though he's hardly better than Trot in that department. The difference is that, after overcoming early struggles, Magglio shot through the minors just when Trot was repeating at AAA Pawtucket. By the end of the year, his numbers will be closer to (and probably better than) Trot's, but for now he's not helping my case much.

Then we get to the overrated, the unready and the unlucky. The terrible thing about claiming that Trot Nixon himself is overrated is that the people who would look past him are some of the same people who worship the rotisserie numbers put up lately by the likes of Gonzalez and Mondesi. It also makes me sick to think that some people will treat this year's versions of Nixon and O'Neill as equals based on their similar home run and RBI production.

Belle is having a terrible year by his standards, yet there has been an eerie lack of media reaction. Is this a paradox or a cause-and-effect? Did Rocker usurp his role as baseball's bad boy? Does he have to act like a monster to hit like a monster? Wait and see -- I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers are closer to Buhner's by late August.

We can blow off Guillen and Stairs at this point, though Kapler is worth a mention despite his injury-plagued start. Just two years ago he hit .322/.393/.583 with 47 doubles, 28 home runs and 146 RBI for Double-A Jacksonville. Two years from now he will be Trot's age. What then? Here are some of the numbers that Nixon's peers put up at age 26:

Player	Team	Year	Games	2B	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	OPS
Salmon, Tim	CAL	1995	143	34	34	105	.429	.594	1.023
Gonzalez, Juan	TEX	1996	134	33	47	144	.368	.643	1.011
Ramirez, Manny	CLE	1998	150	35	45	145	.377	.599	.976
Nixon, Trot*	BOS	2000	149	51	24	108	.399	.571	.970
Belle, Albert	CLE	1993	159	36	38	129	.370	.552	.922
Mondesi, Raul	LA	1997	159	42	30	87	.360	.541	.901
Lawton, Matt	MIN	1998	152	36	21	77	.387	.478	.865
Buhner, Jay	SEA	1991	137	14	27	77	.337	.498	.835
O'Neill, Paul	CIN	1989	117	24	15	74	.346	.446	.792

Keep in mind that this is less than scientific. My "age 26" table catches Juando the year he won A-Rod's MVP award, and captures a nifty year from Salmon. However, it falls a year shy of Albert Belle's breakout season, not to mention its complete failure to adjust for park and era effects.

All this is just raw data to help you make your own decision. My decision is that, if I were running a real team and trying to strike the ideal balance between present and future, I would take Manny Ramirez or Jermaine Dye over Trot Nixon. I would certainly take Tim Salmon, whom this discussion shows to be a surprisingly underrated player.

I would take either Ordonez or Kapler, both of whom have high ceilings. And, as hard as it is to compare them, I would take at least one (maybe two) of {Buhner, Lawton, Belle} over Nixon.

In my book, that leaves Nixon as the seventh- or eighth-best American League right fielder. Lo and behold, he's average -- go figure. It's enough to prove me wrong, but the Red Sox will need a bit more than that to go away. Then again, the magazines been wrong before, just like me.

about the author

Matt Bruce is nothing if not entrepreneurial, but you might scoff at his line of Ron Karkovice facial creams at mb@strikethree.com.