West is Best

Jason Michael Barker

While watching a game on that four-lettered sports network this weekend, something one of the commentators said in passing struck a nerve with me. During a lull in the action, the two announcers were taking the standard quick look around the majors, making a comment or two about what's happening in each division. You know the drill.

I'll paraphrase: "Boy, that Central division looks good. Tight race between Cleveland and a good upstart Chicago club." So far so good. "Out East, looks like another good battle between the Yankees and Red Sox, and Toronto is playing good ball as well." I'll agree again. "And then the West... it just looks ugly. Seattle might win that one by default." Ahem?

As a Mariner fan, I took offense at that last one. Sure, there isn't a powerhouse team like the Braves in the American League West, but there are no terrible teams, either. The East may have Boston, New York and Toronto, but it also has a mediocre-to-bad Baltimore team and a horrible Tampa Bay club. And while the Central boasts Chicago and Cleveland, they're also stuck with the miserable Tigers.

In terms of sheer entertainment value, isn't a division more exciting if all four teams are involved in the race, rather than just two? I certainly think so. In effect, the commentator was downgrading (punishing?) the AL West for simply being a very balanced division, top to bottom.

But enough conjecture, it's time to look at some numbers. A quick glance at the standings shows that the race out West is very tight. Heading into play Tuesday, Seattle stood atop the division at 26-22, followed by Anaheim (27-24), Texas (26-24) and Oakland (25-26). A quick bit of math reveals a cumulative 104-96 won-loss record for AL West teams, which works out to a .520 winning percentage.

By comparison, the East checks in at 121-121 (.500) and the Central 118-126 (.484). (The league-wide .500 record will change with Interleague play, of course, but for now American League teams have only played other American League clubs.)

A look at team batting and pitching stats has the West coming out on top as well. Oakland leads the league in runs scored, Seattle is tied for second, Texas is fourth and Anaheim seventh. AL West teams are scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game, compared to the 5.3 runs per game league average.

On the pitching side, the league has a 4.97 ERA so far this season. The AL West is right at league average -- 4.96 to be exact. Bravo to the East on this one, as Boston and New York lead the league in team ERA. Of course, they also feature three of the bottom four: Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay.

Finally, look at the Pythagorean estimate of winning percentage for the entire AL West. If you're a regular reader of Strikethree.com, you probably know that a quick estimate of what a team's winning percentage "should" be can be made by squaring runs scored, then dividing by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared.

So far this year, AL West teams have scored 1163 runs and allowed 1073. Let's see... square that, carry the one... yes, here we go. Those numbers work out to a robust .540 estimated winning percentage. The Central scores just .471, while the East comes in at .494, just slightly below their .500 actual percentage.

One more quick thing I discovered while running these numbers -- did you realize just how bad the Yankees' offense has been this season? I knew they were having trouble scoring runs, and part of that is Derek Jeter missing two weeks, but I had no idea they were next-to-last in the AL in runs scored, better than only the hapless Detroit Tigers. The Tigers, by the way, are the only club in the league yet to score 200 runs this season.

So there you have it, my quick little treatise on why the AL West is, in fact, the best division in the league and far from "ugly," as one commentator dubbed it this weekend.

As far as the best division in baseball goes, that's a story for another time, but a quick look at the standings leads me to believe it's the National League West. Arizona has played very well this season, the Dodgers and Rockies are both over .500, and even last place San Diego has a .440 winning percentage.

Finally, I'm looking forward to interleague play this weekend. It won't settle any debates over which is the best division in baseball, of course, but it's always fun to see players come to your city who don't normally visit. In Seattle we've got the Padres coming in this weekend, followed by a three-game set with the Rockies.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker also likes the NL Central, and has proof that the Brewers are the victims of a terrorist plot to steal the nation's Genuine Draft. Hip him to the fact that Pierre Salinger is not a reliable source at jmb@strikethree.com.