After taking a peek at the Yankees' stunning luck (or skill) at making the best of their runs scored last week, I thought I'd check to see if there was some team in the National League riding a similar streak. In fact, there isn't. All of the NL is within three wins or so of where they "ought" to be, given their runs scored and allowed, and the ones at the extremes may surprise you.

While slicing and dicing the numbers, though, I did think of a quick and dandy measure of how to figure out how well a team is really doing based on fundamentals. Now, the Yankees may have perfected the come-from-behind one-run win, but it isn't a strategy that will serve a team well throughout the season. At least not in the sense that I'd care to rely on it to get me wins if I were Joe Torre. No, what consistently gets you wins is scoring more runs than the opposition and doing it relentlessly.

"Well, duh!" you might say, and you'd be right. But sadly, it's an all too often overlooked aspect of the game. Some people think you can win with pitching, some with offense, but the real key is in getting the best out of both.

From runs scored and allowed, it is relatively simple to figure out how many wins a team should have, using what's become known as the Pythagorean theorem*. Not that Pythagoras ever envisaged his theorem being used for baseball, I'm sure.

A quicker way to figure out good fundamentals is to look at the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. And even a mathematical dunce can figure out that if they're even, the team should be doing about even in the W-L column. At the very least, it gives us a pretty good idea of the balance between pitching and offense on a club. Let's take a quick look at the National League on that basis, starting, as always, in the East.

Team	W	L	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	RS/RA	Power Rank
Atlanta	22	12	160	128	1.25	3
Florida	19	17	168	162	1.04	6
Montreal	17	15	173	180	.96	8
New York	19	17	175	197	.89	13
Philadelphia	13	20	138	157	.88	14

It's no surprise that the Braves have good fundamentals, keyed by their excellent pitching staff. There's a real surprise in the ranks following them, though. Between Florida, Montreal and New York, I'm shocked that the Marlins rate best in terms of power ranking. All three teams are two games over .500, but the Marlins are the only one of the three who have outscored their opponents. Pity the poor Phillies. They have the third-lowest runs allowed in the league, but their woeful offense is killing them. So much for the notion that you only need pitching to win.

Over in the Central, we have the number two team overall -- the Cardinals. Good, though not brilliant, pitching combined with phenomenal offense has propelled them into the division lead. However, to see just how badly win-loss records can reflect actual performance, check out the Reds. Handily outscored by their opponents, the Reds nevertheless manage to hang tough, lagging the Cards by a mere 1.5 games. Must be that bullpen.

Team	W	L	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	RS/RA	Power Rank
St Louis	20	14	226	176	1.28	2
Houston	14	19	193	193	1.00	7
Pittsburgh	15	18	159	169	.94	9
Cincinnati	18	15	168	181	.93	11
Chicago	14	23	208	248	.84	15
Milwaukee	13	22	156	197	.79	16

Houston, meanwhile, has been going the other way. Even with their opponents in runs scored, the Astros have squandered a lot of their runs. It will take a good solid run of good luck to balance that string out. Speaking of run squandering, the Cubs are sure banging out some runs, but so are their opponents -- in even larger numbers. And finally, why not check out our beloved commissioner's team. Dead last in just about every category, and deservedly so.

In the West, we finally reach the number one power-ranked team in the league. I didn't think they could keep up their 1999 offense, but they have, and anchored by Randy Johnson, they have the second best pitching to work with too. Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Giants have pretty good power rankings, but little to show for it in the W-L column. Overall, though, you'd have to figure out they'll turn it around eventually and make a run at the Snakes.

Team	W	L	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	RS/RA	Power Rank
Arizona	24	10	198	141	1.40	1
Los Angeles	17	16	191	170	1.12	4
San Francisco	18	14	188	170	1.11	5
Colorado	15	18	199	214	.93	10
San Diego	13	21	169	189	.89	12

Note that this method of ranking teams also takes care of park effects. Colorado has the third-highest runs scored, but has been outscored a smidge. San Diego is just sad.

So we have the top three power-ranked teams leading their respective divisions. Can they keep it up? Can the Reds maintain their overachiever status? Can LA finally string some wins together? Are the Marlins for real? Will the Astros finally click?

We'll just have to wait and see.

* Note: The "Pythagorean Theorem" looks like this:
Win Percentage = (Runs Scored ^2)/(Runs Scored ^2 + Runs Allowed ^2)

Dave Paisley has been spending his off hours charting park effects in his local Pony League ballfields. Explain that although it's nice to know that little Jimmy Krakauer's offense will drop off in the roomier high-school ballpark, you could care less at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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