Bronx Queer

Dave Paisley

About last Thursday, I decided I was going to write this article about the curious Luck o' the Yankees. It's odd that their luck should come primarily at the expense of the Red Sox in the standings, too, but maybe not now that I remember the curse.

The thing I noticed about the Yankees was that they have a fabulous record, good pitching, but a poor offense. A small fraction of the good pitching and poor offense can be laid at the door of Yankee Stadium, but that's about all. In runs scored per game, the Yankees rate better than only the hapless Tigers (who just pasted them this weekend) and the equally hapless Devil Rays. They are the only three teams averaging less than five runs scored per game. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that only Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada are slugging over .500?

In the pitching department, though, the Yankees are quite stellar, at least on paper. They rank second in the league behind the Red Sox (a long way back, too) with a mere 4.5 runs allowed per game. With 165 runs scored and 154 allowed through 34 games, the Yanks should be sporting a record of about 18-16. Fair enough for a team that's barely beating the opposition in runs scored. Yet here they are with a real-life record of 22-12 (which was, until their recent swoon, 22-9) What gives?

The bottom line for the pinstripers has been this: the bullpen. In those first 34 games, their starters were a mere 12-11, while their bullpen went on a 10-1 rampage, not losing a game at all until Mariano Rivera faltered on May 7 against the Orioles. While win-loss record isn't the best measure of quality of pitching, it does at least show something informative about how the team is operating. The bullpen has been a key to the Yankees extraordinary success this year, because it has kept them in tight games and allowed the offense to come through and win games late.

And what is it about the middle relief and the name Jeff? Jeff Nelson has inherited the mantle of "can't lose" middle relief guy from Jeff Zimmerman of Texas. Jeff Z's magic obviously deserted him this year, but it appears to have alighted on Nelson instead. At 6-0 with a 1.29 ERA, Nelson has poached a bunch of wins in the mid-to-late innings. Throw in Grimsley at 1-0, Rivera at 2-1, and a relief win for Ramiro Mendoza, and the pen is a combined 10-1.

The result of all these late-game wins shows up in another way: the margin of victory or loss. The Yanks are 7-2 in one run games, 7-2 in two run games and 3-1 in three run games. So that's a combined 17-5 in runs decided by three runs or less. Contrast that with the fact that they're 5-7 in games decided by four or more runs. Their average margin of victory is 2.5 runs, while their average margin of defeat is over 4.3 runs.

Pity the poor Red Sox (although not so much, now they've caught the Yankees up.) With 184 runs scored and a mere 122 given up, about 50 better in run differential than the Yankees, the Sox were several games back as recently as last week. The difference has been that they had a more conventional run distribution. The balance of luck has evened out a little with this past weekend's series.

So what does this mean for the fate of the pinstriped ones, you might be saying. There are a couple of ways to look at this. I believe that their recent success has imbued the team with a certain amount of confidence that they can win any game. The fact that it mostly is the same bunch of guys who have won the last two World Series leads me to believe that there is something going on in the way of clubhouse chemistry.

Second, their bullpen is pretty good (ERA under 3.00), while their starters are really only so-so. Cone has been awful, while Pettitte, Mendoza, Clemens and Hernandez have been decent but not spectacular (combined ERA about 4.50). So it seems that about a third of the time, the starters get blown out and the offense tanks. Another third of the time, the starters pitch well and go on to win the game. The rest of the time, the starters keep the team in it, the bullpen slams the door, and the offense comes thorugh late with a couple of runs. It's that last chunk of games where a combination of bullpen skill and luck has allowed them to win way over the expected number of games so far.

I don't expect that trend to continue to be quite as successful as it has been so far. Given the better underlying fundamentals, I expect the Red Sox to keep on cruising from here, while the Yankee luck should dissipate somewhat. So count me in for a Boston division win -- eventually.

about the author

Dave Paisley is hoping to win a coveted editorial spot at the New York Times. Let him know he needs to work on blaming a team's woes on one player at drdjp@strikethree.com.