Buddy, Can You Spare A Run?Dave Paisley

About a quarter of the way into the season, some patterns start to become evident. One I've been keeping tabs on, as I did last year, is the "unluckiest pitcher in the world" race. These poor guys are the starters who have decent ERAs, but somehow carry those 0-5, 1-4 records like millstones around their necks.

For the vast majority of commentators and fans who look no further than W-L records, these poor guys just don't have that magical quality that allows them to win games, despite pitching well (a fact that's often referred to in a puzzled tone.) It's as if they have anti-chemistry, like body odor or bad breath. What they really lack, though, is a little help from their friends, namely the guys with the big wooden sticks. Or, as it must seem to these hard luck pitchers, toothpicks.

It's particularly unfortunate when this incredibly bad luck lands on young guys just starting their careers. Somehow, this simple bad luck dogs their every move. "Can't win," becomes the mantra, and pretty soon the young guys fall apart. Then they are subjected to the knowing "told you so" line of horse manure. So I'd like to do what I can to dispel the notion that these guys can't win, and that ultimately their luck will even out.

First of our young victims is Seattle's Gil Meche. With a mere 4 runs of offense to back him up in 33 innings of pitching (about one run per nine innings) Meche has been the epitome of hard luck candidates so far this year. He's pitched very well: with an ERA of 3.51, Meche ranks 26th out of 107 qualified pitchers in the majors. Sure, he has walked a lot of guys, but for the most part he's managed to avoid melting down and pitched a gem of a game in his outing last Saturday.

Teammate Aaron Sele knows what run support looks like, having been the beneficiary of league-best run support in Texas recently. He is also getting decent support from his new Seattle offense, unlike Meche, at around 5.7 runs per nine innings. Sele noted that it will all even out in the end for Meche but, he added, hopefully not at his own expense.

Here is a summary of Meche's performance to date:

Gil Meche, Sea
Opponent	Opposing Pitcher	Innings Pitched	Runs Allowed (ER)	Run Support (After departure)	Decision
NYY	O. Hernandez	4.1	1 (1)	0 (2)	ND
@Det	Nomo	6.1	0 (0)	0 (0)	ND
@CWS	Eyre	4.2	4 (4)	2 (0)	L
Cle	Finley	6.0	5 (4)	0 (0)	L
@KC	Rosado	5.0	4 (4)	2 (1)	L
Ana	Mercker	7.0	0 (0)	0 (1)	ND

After departure: runs scored by the team after the pitcher left the game.

Part of Meche's troubles are, of course, that he ahs faced some pretty good pitchers. Even so, Chuck Finley and Orlando Hernandez have off days. They just don't have them when they're pitching opposite young Gil.

The next young gun on the block with poor support is the Mets' Glendon Rusch. Sporting a spiffy 3.28 ERA (20th-best), Rusch has managed just one win in five starts, mostly due to a mere 5 runs of total support in five games, or just 1.26 runs per nine innings. The only good thing you can say about that is that it's better than Meche's. Checking the table below, he was lucky he was able to scrape a win against the Cubs' Jon Lieber in his second start.

Glendon Rusch, NYM
Opponent	Opposing Pitcher	Innings Pitched	Runs Allowed (ER)	Run Support (After departure)	Decision
@Pit	Anderson	8.0	2 (2)	0 (0)	L
ChC	Lieber	7.0	2 (2)	3 (5)	W
Cin	Parris	7.2	1 (1)	1 (0)	ND
@SF	L. Hernandez	6.0	7 (7)	1 (0)	L
@Fla	Dempster *	7.0	1 (1)	0 (0)	L

* One-hitter

So our two featured young guns have pitched a total of 68 innings in 11 games, received just 9 runs to work with and have a combined 1-6 record to show for it. The next-worst hard luck pitchers have received at least 2 runs of support per 9 IP, and there are only 6 out of 107 with less than 3 runs of support, making these guys the winners by a mile in the hard-luck stakes.

Here are some of the other notable young offense-deprived cases:

Randy Wolf (Phi): 6 games, 3.07 ERA (15th-best), 1-2 record, 2.2 run support per 9 IP. Promising start for young Mr. Wolf, not that you can tell by the W-L record, of course.

Todd Ritchie (Pit): 6 games, 2.59 ERA (6th-best), 2-1 record, 3.02 run support per 9 IP. That 2-1 record could be a lot better with a few more runs.

Ryan Dempster (Fla): 7 games, 2.39 ERA (4th-best), 3-2 record, 3.31 run support per 9 IP. Threw the one-hitter against Rusch, so some of these young guys are beating each other up, pitching-wise.

Rob Bell (Cin): 6 games, 3.60 ERA (27th-best), 2-2 record, 3.34 run support per 9 IP. Not that he's brilliant or anything, but where would the Reds rotation be without him?

And what about some unlucky veterans? What happened to these guys that a few runs of support wouldn't fix?

Pete Schourek (Bos): 7 games, 3.19 ERA (16th-best), 1-2 record, 2.90 run support per 9 IP. One tough game doesn't negate the fact that he's pitched very well. However, lack of run support and one or two bad outings can call your manhood into question. It's a slipepry slope from there.

Mike Mussina (Bal): 7 games, 4.56 ERA (50th-best), 1-3 record, 3.33 run support per 9 IP. Average pitching so far, but people are beginning to wonder if he's losing it. He hasn't lost much, just his offense.

Solutions
So, what we really need are some suggestions for these guys on ways to help encourage their teammates to score some runs for them. I've been pondering this a bit myself and have come up with the following list.

• Cattle prods -- to goose the offense into action on those lethargic days.
• Free candy -- get those batters wired!
• Some "Clubhouse Chemistry" -- maybe a little sulphuric acid down the pants of the cleanup guy?
• Ex-Lax all round for the offense -- get them trotting around the bases.
• New jockstraps for the offense, one size too small, with a note to the effect of, "I could use a little support here, guys..."

Perhaps you gentle readers can dream up a few more creative ways for these guys to get a little more support. I'll be sure to pass along the best suggestions.

Next time I'll take a look at some of the beneficiaries of the run support that these guys are missing. I'm not going to give away any of the big names, but here's a clue: Odd-Tay Ottlemyre-Stay.

about the author

Dave Paisley had this great idea for live game statistics including packs of gum chewed, amount of dirt in divots dug up by sliding outfielders, and groupies chatted up (bullpen only), causing him to be laughed out of the meeting. Let him know that CNN/SI's now doing it at drdjp@strikethree.com.