Ticket to Rag?

Dave Paisley

Much has been made in the popular press of Ken Griffey Jr.'s poor April performance. Expectations were high, and the reality has been pretty bad by any standards. A .217 batting average, .333 on base percentage and a .457 slugging average would be good for a scrub middle infielder, barely adequate for a scrub left fielder and totally unacceptable for a superstar centerfielder.

Cincinnati thought they were getting today's premier all-around baseball superstar and so far they've pretty much had Devon White Lite. Is it unfair to rip on Griffey so soon? Probably, but that's the price you tend to pay for moving further into the spotlight, especially in the odd circumstances in which it was done.

Life is complicated for Griffey because the start of the season is a particularly vulnerable time. Have a crappy month in August and nobody tends to notice much, as you have four months of solid stats behind you. In April, though, there is nowhere to hide.

It is true, though, that just about anything can happen in a month, and so I thought I'd take a look at Griffey's performance month-by-month over the last three years to see just how good and bad he can be in that period of time.

Here are the numbers, showing batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average and OPS (on-base plus slugging.)

1997	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Apr	.340	.420	.796	1.216
May	.291	.347	.627	.974
Jun	.295	.400	.557	.957
Jul	.267	.328	.446	.774
Aug	.330	.412	.730	1.142
Sep	.297	.385	.714	1.099
1998	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Apr	.262	.374	.641	1.015
May	.316	.376	.632	1.008
Jun	.264	.349	.673	1.022
Jul	.351	.462	.680	1.142
Aug	.261	.314	.477	.791
Sep	.255	.315	.571	.886
1999	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Apr	.301	.402	.663	1.065
May	.340	.431	.679	1.110
Jun	.275	.383	.569	.952
Jul	.317	.384	.574	.958
Aug	.273	.344	.500	.844
Sep	.212	.359	.490	.849
2000	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Apr	.217	.333	.457	.790
May	.154	.267	.385	.652

Griffey has had either one bad month or a couple of poor months in each of the last three seasons. A poor July in 1997, a nasty August in 1998 and a poor last two months of the 1999 season are certainly evidence that Junior can have a rough time of it over the course of a single lunar cycle.

What is unusual, though, is for him to have a poor month in the first half of the season. He's normally pretty focused on keeping his triple-crown stats respectable. Hit home runs until the average drops, then cut down on the swing for a while until the batting average creeps up to the .300 mark and repeat.

Another factor in Junior's performance is whether his team is in the hunt or not, which does correspond to the late season swoons. He appears to find it difficult to get interested when there isn't much at stake. So this season's early season swoon is out of line with past swoons. In fact, April has usually been very kind to Junior, with a solid 1.000 OPS or better the last three years.

Interestingly, his April home run totals have been declining steadily, from 13 in 1997 to, 11, 9, and now 7 this year. Is that significant? Probably not, but it is something to keep in mind for the future.

Looking at the numbers, I noticed that Junior had three 1.000+ months in 1997, four in 1998, but only two in 1999, ending in that aforementioned swoon. I got to wondering if there was a pattern developing that might be more evident graphically (oh, you could just see that one coming, right?).

Here's his three-year OPS data in graphical form:

To me, the fascinating part is the decline month-by-month last year and the continuation on to this year. Not that I expect him to stay where he is, but there are definite signs of potential problems.

The final reason for Griffey's swoon this year could simply be the lack of offense around him. In Seattle, he spent a decade hitting in front of one of the league's consummate hitters, Edgar Martinez, and last year batted ahead of Alex Rodriguez. This year he's split time batting ahead of Dante Bichette and Dimitri Young, two guys who are certainly not of the quality of the former, even on a good day with the wind blowing out.

So Junior's in a funk and it remains to be seen just how well he'll pull out of it. Even if he does, will it be good enough and soon enough to assuage impatient Reds fans?

about the author

Dave Paisley, hearing of the sums being offered for the first Barry Bonds homer to land in San Francisco Bay, is considering renting a barge on the Ohio when the Reds' new park opens. Let him know when the 800-foot homer becomes common at drdjp@strikethree.com.