Red-HandedDave Paisley

"Where's my pitching?"

That was the plaintive cry of Ken Griffey Jr. to Mariner management at the end of last season as he contemplated what he wanted to do with the rest of his baseball career. Certainly, he was justified in asking the question for much of the last four years, Randy Johnson notwithstanding. With the Worst Bullpen in the World™ and a shaky starting staff, Seattle limped along as best it could with a juggernaut offense for the last few years. They are proof positive that you can't win with just offense.

While Griffey's cry may have had some justification prior to mid-1999, it was odd that he chose to rip on the Mariner pitching staff just as it began to come together. Unloading the aging and ineffective Jeff Fassero left the Mariners with a very promising nucleus of starters, beginning with the ageless Jamie Moyer, rookie Freddy Garcia and 20-year-old Gil Meche. With a new GM, the promise of an expanded payroll and an aggressive pursuit of free agents, Mariner pitching seemed poised to turn the corner.

None of this seemed to impress Griffey, who became determined to head to Cincinnati, for family reasons, due to exasperation with a high-scoring but unsuccessful Mariner team, but also perhaps because he was enamored with the Redsí late run at a playoff spot last year. Surely this was a team on the rise?

Not so fast, Kenny. Any serious look at the Reds last year with an unbiased eye showed the team to be a lucky bunch of overachievers, especially in the pitching department. One good year from Scott Williamson and two-thirds of a good year from Steve Parris seemed to be all they needed to feel flush with pitching. There was also that unusual bullpen usage, hammering Williamson (62 appearances, 93.1 innings, 2.41 ERA), Graves (75, 111.0, 3.08) and Sullivan (79, 113.2, 3.01) for lots of appearances of more than inning a time. Only Sullivan had seen that kind of action before.

The starters were a ragtag bunch, too. Pete Harnisch's numbers have looked OK, but I'd be reluctant to have him as my ace, while Parris and the emerging Ron Villone looked decent in a partial year's work. Throw in a washed-up Steve Avery, a recovering Denny Neagle and an out-of-favor Brett Tomko, and this wasn't by any means a great staff. The addition of Juan Guzman for the stretch drive helped stabilize the team late in the season, though.

Given all the uncertainties, one would have thought GM Jim Bowden's primary task was to shore up the pitching staff. But no -- he let Guzman walk, picked up the vastly overrated Dante Bichette, and then spent the rest of the winter chasing Griffey, eventually trading away Tomko in the process. As spring training rolled around, he seemed to realize he was in trouble on the pitching front, but all he could get at that point was a washed-up Mark Portugal, who didnít even make the team.

So now Bowdenís left with a rotation of Harnisch, Neagle, Villone, Parris and 23-year-old rookie Rob Bell, who have collectively managed an ERA of around 6.00 so far. The Redsí bullpen has fared no better, managing an ERA of 6.00 between them so far, aided by former Mariner Norm Charlton's 9 earned runs in 3 innings. Now that must have given Griffey a serious case of deja vu.

Despite all this, the Reds don't have the worst pitching in the National league. They're only the third-worst, behind Chicago and Houston. However, factor in defense and they have the worst runs allowed per game at 6.45.

This might not be so bad if a Griffey-led offense can make up the difference, right? We'll never know, because the redsí offense isn't even league-average so far (5.0 runs per game, versus a 5.2 NL average.) It doesn't help that Griffey (.753 OPS) and Bichette (.666 OPS) are hitting more like a middle infield combo than a pair of outfield sluggers. Factor in the loss of offensive leader Barry Larkin for a few weeks, and there's no reason to see things getting better soon.

Despite the 8-11 record, the Reds are still in second place in the NL Central, but if they keep playing like this it wonít be long before Houston overtakes them. And unless their offense takes off and the pitching gets better, this is a team that will be lucky to break even on the year. In fact, if they continue at current rates, they'll barely scrape their way to 70 wins.

Which makes me wonder just how long Junior will last before blowing up. If this team continues to struggle through May things will get ugly. Not as ugly as Dante Bichette, mind, but close.

So, Junior, you want to know where your pitching is? Sorry to have to tell you this, but it's back there in Seattle...

about the author

Dave Paisley has heard about the $5 beers at Cinergy Field, and would like to know where else they're that cheap. Send your per-ounce estimates to drdjp@strikethree.com.