Shortstop Studs

Dave Paisley

With the ultra-hot start to the season by last week's AL Player of the Week Alex Rodriguez, I thought it might be time to do a little comparison on the hitting careers to date of the AL's superstar trio of shortstops. The trio is completed, of course, by Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter. I also wanted to be able to put their performance into perspective with recent baseball history. Unfortunately, there aren't too many reference points to compare them to, but we do have a lifeline in Barry Larkin, veteran shortstop extraordinaire.

As you no doubt know, Jeter and Rodriguez became regulars in 1996, while Garciaparra didn't get that honor until 1997. So we have either three or four years of data to compare. I'll be using the last five years of Larkin's career for comparison. Given that he missed a fair amount of time in 1997, the total plate appearances are pretty comparable (roughly 2,000 AB or more each.)

First, let's take a look at overall performance gauged by OPS. (And yes, I know many of you claim that it's much better to see the components separately, but that's twice the work, you know.) Here it is for the major ball-strike count situations.

It's pretty evident that A-Rod and Nomar have an OPS edge on Larkin and especially Jeter. Jeter's numbers don't match his performance of last year because his performance up to that point was more in line with, say, Chuck Knoblauch rather than Ken Griffey Jr. I must say that I expected Barry Larkin to look pretty mediocre compared to these guys, but he holds up remarkably well.

Here's the data shown relative to the performance of a MLB-average player in 1999:

I guess that ahead in the count I'll take A-Rod, behind I'll take Nomar, although A-Rod is the most consistent performer across the board in all situations. For the curious among you, here's how these guys split their plate appearances in the different situations:

Here's where Larkin's experience and guile comes into play. He spends more time ahead and even in the count, hacks at the first pitch less, and sends less time behind in the count than these guys, except for Nomar. Nomar is a little different. Impatient as his, he'll try to jump all over the first pitch, with pretty good results. Of course, that relative impatience costs him dearly in terms of walks. If he ever learns a bit of patience, watch out.

Now let's take a look at how these guys have done in some clutch batting situations:

It's interesting to see that Jeter has been pretty average with men in scoring position, while the other guys manage to maintain their better-than-average numbers. Larkin, meanwhile is a pretty tough performer across the board, and outperforms the young guns leading off an inning. Overall, though, you have to give the nod to Garciaparra for being consistently studly across the board.

Finally, let's take a look at plate discipline. Here are the strikeout numbers.

Now there's a consistent story. Jeter and A-Rod strike out just about league average across the board, while Nomar and Larkin only take that walk back to the dugout about half as often. Speaking of walking, though, the picture is a little different:

Larkin wins the walking race hands down, with Derek Jeter the heir apparent in the category. A-Rod barely beats out Nomar for the cellar in this category. It does appear that things are changing this year, though. At the ripe old age of 24, Rodriguez appears to be learning the value of a walk from the likes of Edgar Martinez and John Olerud, taking the free pass at more than twice his career rate so far. And don't tell me they're pitching around him to get to Olerud and Martinez.

So there's a look at what our superstud shortstops have been up to so far. Which one will take the honors as the best shortstop of the 00's is still pretty much up for grabs. I'd give A-Rod the nod, followed closely by Nomar with Jeter even further back. But then I thought the Dodgers would win the NL West last year, so what do I know?

You have to excuse Dave Paisley -- since he got that bootleg alpha of Excel 2002, he's been well nigh uncontrollable. Send your Total Average macros to drdjp@strikethree.com.

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