Chasing ImmortalityDave Paisley

With a week and a half under our belts in this new season, those early-season anomalies start to show up. Nowhere is that more evident than in the home run chase. Sure, some optimistic fans in KC are sure to be hopeful that Mike Sweeney will remain on that 100-homer pace, but we all know it's just not going to happen. Here's an abbreviated look at the home run leader board so far:

Player, Team	HR
Mike Sweeney, KC	5
Jeromy Burnitz, Mil	5
Charles Johnson, Bal	4
Ray Durham, ChA	4
Andres Galarraga, Atl	4
Ron Coomer, Min	3
Jacque Jones, Min	3
Joe Randa, KC	3
Shannon Stewart, Tor	3
Shane Spencer, NYY	3
Shane Andrews, ChN	3
Barry Bonds, SF	3
Kevin Elster, LA	3
Ken Griffey Jr., Cin	3
Mark McGwire, StL	3
Edgar Renteria, StL	3

This list really begs some questions, like for instance, "What's Charles Johnson doing in this bunch?" And what about Kevin Elster and Edgar Renteria? National League shortstops (and in Elster's case I use the term loosely) with power? Shane Andrews, Shane Spencer and Shannon Stewart? Good grief!

Kudos to Andres Galarraga, too, for coming back so strong (thereby heading off the necessity to see much of Wally Joyner.) Buried in the list, though, are the usual suspects -- Griffey, Bonds, McGwire -- and we know these guys will pull away from the pack as another couple of weeks go by.

Which brings me to my main topic -- a quick look at the key guys chasing Aaron, Ruth and the 700 barrier in the all-time home run chase. Griffey quickly got his first pair of the season to take him to the 400 mark at the youngest age in history, and his former teammate, Alex Rodriguez, needs just a pair to reach the 150 mark. A good season by both would put them around the 450 and 200 marks respectively, so it seems like an appropriate time to take stock of the all-time chase again.

First, here's a look at A-Rod and his chase to 200:

The first thing to note is that A-Rod is well ahead of the pace of both the key historical figures and his contemporaries. He hit the 100 mark at the fifth-fastest rate, but is on a pace to eclipse the likes of Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews and Tony Conigliaro in the race to 200 (a mark Conigliaro sadly never reached, of course.)

If he can bash out 52 this year, he will be roughly 25 ahead of the all-time fastest pace to 300, set by Jimmie Foxx and almost matched by Griffey. So whatever Griffey manages to do, A-Rod has the time and wherewithal to best him eventually. The key factors that could slow him down are the potential for work stoppage and injury, both factors in Griffey's lack of progress at age 25.

Moving on to the Reds' new centerfielder, we'll take a look at the late half of those critical careers. For comparison, let's also take a look at Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas.

Griffey's numbers show a very close tracking of Jimmie Foxx's career, but it's pretty evident that, barring catastrophe, their paths will diverge significantly within about three years. In fact, given three "normal" years for him, Griffey will have eclipsed Foxx's career mark and be well on his way to Ruth and Aaron territory. Maybe Foxx misread the words way back when and thought he was supposed to be chasing immorality? We'll never know.

The interesting wild card in all of this is, of course, Big Mac. Given that horrible period in the early to mid-nineties, there was little evidence that McGwire would re-emerge as a major home run force, let alone blow away the single-season record. Apart from the bad back (not a good sign, we must admit) there's nothing to suggest he couldn't keep cranking 60 or so per season for another two to four years.

This means he's pretty much a slam dunk for 600 at the lower end, and right on Aaron's record at the high end. Which should make the 2003 and 2004 seasons ones to watch if he's still playing. With a 120-HR lead over Griffey and a higher rate of production, it will take Griffey maybe three years after Mac quits to catch up.

Finally, there are the less-homer-oriented killer hitters up there: Bonds and Thomas. It looks like Bonds' career total will top out around 600, obviously depending on health and desire. Personally, I don't question the latter at all.

The Big Hurt, however, is another matter entirely. Once the premier hitter in the American League, Thomas has a lot to prove from here on, and the signs aren't looking good at the moment. He never was a huge home run hitter, and given the way things are going, he may not even break 400 career homers.

about the author

Dave Paisley most recently offered to dive naked into the Bay every time the Giants hit a home run. Suggest that at least it would keep all the boats away at drdjp@strikethree.com.