A Final Forecast Jason Michael Barker

Upon sitting down to write this column today, it occurred to me that I failed to close out my series of articles predicting the final standings in each of baseball's six divisions. Looking back, I covered the American League West (Oakland), National League West (Los Angeles), AL Central (Cleveland) and NL East (Atlanta), which of course leaves the AL East and NL Central still to go. There's a reason those two division are left, of course -- in my humble opinion, they're the hardest to speculate about this season.

For all their respective additions this off-season, the Red Sox are certainly a trendy pick in the AL East, as are the Reds and Cardinals in the NL Central, but I'm not as impressed with those three teams as some other observers are. I'm not all that impressed with the Devil Rays either, but you probably knew that.

Moving on to the predictions...AL East

1. New York
2. Toronto
3. Boston
4. Baltimore
5. Tampa Bay

That's right -- not only will the Red Sox not win the World Series (what was Sports Illustrated thinking, anyway?) or the American League East, they won't even take home the Wild Card. That distinction belongs to the Blue Jays this year, who boast a collection of good young hitters and pitchers. Back to them in a moment, however, as we'll start by looking at the bottom of the division.

Tampa Bay made waves this winter by acquiring all those "big bats," but it's important to remember that they didn't even win 70 games last season. The Orioles, on the other hand, were basically a .500 team last season, a fact often forgotten amidst all the ridicule the organization is subject to thanks to their habit of signing aging players to long contracts (they played better than their 78-84 record, having outscored their opponents by 36 runs last year).

The O's were nine games better than the D'Rays last season, and I don't see that difference being made up by the likes of Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla and Juan Guzman. Tampa Bay should be slightly better in 2000, four or five games perhaps, but not enough to move ahead of the Orioles, who should once again be around the .500 mark.

Skipping up to the top of the division, the Yankees will once again win the East because they are, indeed, still the Yankees. I don't expect them to cakewalk through to another World Series title, in part because they are getting older and declining, and in part because there are several quality teams elsewhere in baseball this season.

Now the controversial part of this prediction -- the Blue Jays over the Red Sox. I'm tempted to write the Sox off just because any team that plays Gary Gaetti at designated hitter, as they did Opening Day, should be dismissed on principle alone, but there's more to it that than. For starters, consider the starters (sorry). Boston putting quite a bit of faith in both the health and performance of Ramon Martinez, Jeff Fassero and Bret Saberhagen, all of whom are question marks to say the least. Toronto has question marks in their rotation as well (Cris Carpenter, Roy Halladay and Kelvim Escobar), but the advantage for the Jays comes in their youth and upside.

That theme holds true for several other Toronto players as well, including Tony Batista, Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz Jr., and Brad Fullmer. The Red Sox don't have nearly as many players who can be counted on to improve, with Trot Nixon and possibly Nomar Garciaparra the only exceptions.NL Central

1. Houston
2. St. Louis
3. Cincinnati
4. Pittsburgh
5. Milwaukee
6. Chicago

Let's get right to the good stuff -- the Astros won 97 games last year, and in trading Mike Hampton and Derek Bell for Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel, they've gotten both younger and better. The Reds won 96 games last year, and of course trading for Ken Griffey Jr. is a good thing, but there's reason to expect decline in other areas.

First the bullpen, which was great last season but can be expected to slip this year for two reasons: possible overuse in 1999, and the simple fact that it's unlikely the entire group can keep up their high level of performance from one year to the next. Elsewhere on the roster, Dante Bichette is probably going to get 500 at-bats, Pokey Reese was likely at his best last season, and now Sean Casey is on the disabled list.The Cardinals, on the other hand, added two solid starters in Darryl Kile and Pat Hentgen, and while trading for Jim Edmonds was a bit unnecessary given J. D. Drew, he will help the team, particularly if Eric Davis or Ray Lankford fall victim to injuries. Their infield -- McGwire, Tatis, Renteria, and Vina -- is a nice group as well. It's not quite enough to overtake the Astros this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards take the Wild Card.Moving down the ranks, both Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are a mixed bag -- good young players at some positions, older problems at others. Pitching will be the difference between the two, and right now that edge goes the way of the Pirates with starters Francisco Cordova, Kris Benson, and Jason Schmidt. Finally, the Cubs should be better than they were last year with the acquisitions of Eric Young and Ismael Valdes, but is that really saying much?

about the author

Jason Michael Barker's forgetfulness is starting to worry us here at strikethree.com. Is it old age or just an iron deficiency? Be sure to let him know where to get cheap Geritol online at jmb@strikethree.com.