NL Forecast: Steady Hail of Astros

Dave Paisley

Well, here we are with part two of a two-part series looking ahead to the 2000 season. Before the ink was dry on my first column, I had a reader taking issue with me. Not about the predictions per se, but for the fact that I used plain ol' OPS to predict runs scored rather than some complicated ratio that values on-base percentage more than slugging average.

Now, there are many different theories about just how influential each of these two components are in scoring runs, but I have yet to discover anything more than a minor bias in favor of OBP. And certainly not large enough to warrant complicating matters by messing with different multipliers on SLG and OBP. All I'll say is that, for 1999, there was a 95% correlation between OPS and runs scored. Taking odd multiples of OBP instead increased the correlation to a shade over 96%, but is that really worth the complication? I say not, but maybe that's a column for another day.

On to the National League predictions. Here's the NL East, which looks strangely like the NL Easts of recent years:

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins	Losses
ATL	.781	3.94	879	691	100	62
NY	.743	4.23	796	741	87	75
PHI	.736	4.44	782	779	81	81
MON	.727	4.85	761	849	72	90
FLA	.681	4.57	662	801	66	96

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to include the effect of the Braves losing John Smoltz, as it wasn't clear just who would be replacing him. If it's John Burkett, you can knock a few wins off the 100 I have the Bravos slated for. I was a bit surprised at how the Mets' numbers turned out, but when you consider the presence of Rey Ordonez and Derek Bell, a drop in offense is perhaps to be expected.

After that, the Phillies should get by with decent pitching but mediocre offense. Schilling and Ashby should provide a pretty good 1-2 punch when the former returns to the mound. If Robert Person can hold on to his form from last year and Randy Wolf can be effective right away, the Phils could do better. Not catching the Braves better, but maybe approach 90 wins.

Montreal could be a decent little club this year, but there are a lot of maybes that have to fall just the right way for them to approach .500. Maybe Pavano and Vazquez step it up. Maybe Vidro, Barrett and Bergeron step up. The likelihood of all of them doing so is minimal, so caveat emptor. Finally, the Marlins could be in the same boat. Will Vladimir Nunez and Brad Penny be quality major leaguers right away, for a full season, no less? Probably not. Will Derrek Lee finally hit? Maybe, but probably not like people once thought he would. But hope springs eternal, and maybe 66 wins is a base to build from.

Over in the central, there's a dogfight going on.

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins	Losses
HOU	.767	4.38	850	767	89	73
STL	.771	4.53	858	794	87	75
CIN	.766	4.52	848	792	87	76
PIT	.726	4.50	759	788	78	84
CHI	.729	4.68	765	820	75	87
MIL	.730	5.41	767	948	64	98

Ken Griffey Jr. asked the Mariners last year, "Where's my pitching?" Well, I hate to break it to you, Kenny, but it ain't in Cincinnati. With a lack of starting pitching, including horrendous spring numbers from #2 starter Denny Neagle, the Reds won't fin it easy to win the Central. In fact, that giant sucking sound Griffey hears is likely to be immediately to his right: new Reds left fielder Dante Bichette. The Reds' offense is sure to be solid with Griffey, Casey and Larkin, but Bichette won't help.

So that leaves the door wide open for a repeat performance by the Astros, or perhaps a sneak win by the Cardinals. The Cards' pitching is woefully suspect, too, but at least there's reason to believe that Darryl Kile will return to some kind of form with a return to sea-level. But it's the Astros that look like the clear winners. I guess we'll have to start addressing their core offense as the BBC: Bagwell, Biggio and Caminiti, or maybe Cedeno when Ken is on the DL, as he inevitably will be at some point. At least it won't look like Fawlty Towers out there, unlike the situation in Milwaukee.

As for the Cubs and Pirates, there's some reason for hope, but not too much. The Pirates do have some hopes if their youngsters can all step up, but once again, I'll say that it's unlikely that they all will. The Cubs, on the other hand, just look beat up. With a fully healthy Kerry Wood and Ismael Valdes, they might have a chance, but neither of those guys look like they'll be terribly robust this season.

Finally, perhaps a little shocker over in the West:

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins	Losses
LA	.762	4.32	838	756	90	72
SF	.786	4.56	891	799	90	72
AZ	.737	4.23	784	741	86	76
SD	.736	4.81	782	842	75	87
COL	.758	5.38	829	943	71	91

It will be close, probably a three-horse race between the Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants. It seems that everyone is picking the Snakes to repeat their 100-win season, but to me it seems almost impossible for their offense to repeat the year it had last year. Sure, their pitching will be solid with Randy Johnson and Todd Stottlemyre anchoring the rotation and Matt Mantei closing, but there's just no way Steve Finley, Jay Bell, Luis Gonzalez and Matt Williams repeat last year, especially now that Williams has broken a bone in his foot. It seems optimistic to me that Erubiel Durazo will continue to dazzle.

So I see the D-Backs drifting back to the pack -- respectable but not spectacular. But what of these dead and buried Dodgers, you might ask. Well, it seemed like, just as everything went right for the D-Backs last year, everything went wrong for the Dodgers. Can Chan Ho Park disappoint as badly as last year? Has Carlos Perez completely lost it? Perhaps, but perhaps not.

Meanwhile, the Giants will continue to contend, much as they did last year. No big changes, just a steady rotation, decent closer, and Bonds, Burks and Kent to provide the heart of the offense.

It's not quite the same over in Colorado. After an utterly disastrous year with Jim Leyland at the helm, and a major housecleaning, it's unlikely they'll be able to mount much of a challenge. And if the answer is Brian L. Hunter, I don't want to know what the question is. I'm betting that within a couple of weeks the Rockies will field a team with Tom Goodwin and Brian Hunter in the outfield and at the top of the order. I don't think I need to elaborate any further on the Rockies' chances.

Finally, there's the Padres. It's been pretty close to a fire sale this winter, and if they do trade Sterling Hitchcock, I think we can safely ring the alarm bell. Staff ace Woody Williams won't strike much fear into anyone's heart.

If all of this pans out somewhat close, then it means there will be two close division races, plus a five-way scrap for the wild card, with the West runner-up the likely recipient.

about the author

Dave Paisley is completely sold out of Octavio Dotel rookie season commemorative coins, so please do not continue sending orders to drdjp@strikethree.com.