NL East: Winds of (No) Change Jason Michael Barker

A wise man once said, "He who picks the standings to go unchanged from one year to the next is either a fool or Yankees fan." Personally I don't see how the two are mutually exclusive, but that's for another time and I'm not in the mood for angry email messages right now.

Getting back to the subject at hand, you can't help but notice that the standings in the National League East have looked the same each of the past two years: Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, Montreal and Florida. Could this be the year the division is finally shaken up? Read on and find out for yourself.

5. Florida Marlins
1999 Record: 64-98 (Fifth place)
Runs Scored: 691 (16th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 852 (12th in NL)

After losing more games than any other team in baseball last season, it stands to reason that the Marlins have nowhere to go but up. GM Dave Dombrowski has acquired a ton of young talent since October of 1997 (remember when the Marlins won the World Series?), and it appears the team finally bottomed out last year and is ready to start winning again.

Winning is a relative term in this case, however, given how bad the team was last year. The Fish have assembled quite a few good young pitchers -- Brad Penny, Vladimir Nunez, Michael Tejara, A.J. Burnett -- but the latter two are injured and expected to miss a considerable number of games this year. Still, pitching shouldn't be the problem in Miami this year.

The Marlins are going to have a hard time scoring runs, as they did last season, particularly with an infield of Derrek Lee, Luis Castillo, Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell. Rookie catcher Ramon Castro is built in the Charles Johnson mold: good glove, no bat (at least not yet).

Give this team another two years, at which point a .500 record won't be an unreasonable expectation.

4. Montreal Expos
1999 Record: 68-94 (Fourth place)
Runs Scored: 718 (14th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 853 (13th in NL)

The Expos are improving too, although not to the point where it makes sense to sign a situational lefty (Graeme Lloyd) to a three-year contract when the team on the whole is running on a tight budget. The Hideki Irabu trade just keeps getting worse as well, with the Yankees now having taken both Ted Lilly and Jake Westbrook in return for George Steinbrenner's "Fat Toad." I suppose it's important for new owner Jeffrey Loria to show the fans something, anything, in the way of trying to make the team better, but you have to wonder how much of the future he's sacrificing in his attempt to be a .500 team.

On a positive note, their outfield of Rondell White, Peter Bergeron and Vladimir Guererro is very talented, and if White goes down or gets traded, prospect Milton Bradley is waiting in the wings. Michael Barrett should benefit from playing third base full-time rather than splitting time at catcher as he did last year, and 2B Jose Vidro above-average even if he slips a bit from last season.

Most importantly, the Expos have enough pitching talent to be a decent team this year. Dustin Hermanson is a top-notch major league starter and Irabu should benefit from the change of scenery. Youngsters Javier Vazquez (23) and Carl Pavano (24) have over 300 and 200 innings, respectively, of MLB experience already and continued to be well handled by Felipe Alou, who also seems to get the most of his bullpen each season.

If everything breaks the right way, the Expos could be a .500 team in 2000, and the Phillies (and third place) are certainly within reach.

3. Philadelphia Phillies
1999 Record: 77-85 (Fourth place)
Runs Scored: 841 (6th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 846 (11th in NL)

In 1998, the Phillies scored just 713 runs and allowed 808, but still managed to win 75 games when the numbers suggested they should have won just 71. Last year, thanks in part to big years from Bobby Abreu, Doug Glanville and Mike Lieberthal, the Phillies scored a full 128 runs more than they had in 1998.

Their pitching declined, however, and the team won just 77 games while the numbers suggest they should have won 81. This is a good example of how using the Pythagorean won-loss idea averages out over time: the Phillies overperformed by four games in 1998, then underperformed by four games in 1999.

It's safe to say the Phillies won't score as many runs as they did last season. Abreu is a great young player, but his 1999 season was off the charts and he shouldn't be expected to repeat it. Glanville's .325/.376/.457 was completely out of context with anything he's done in the majors before, and he's turning 30 this season.

Lieberthal is a different story, as he's only 28 and catchers often starting hitting later than other players. Still, I wouldn't count on him to hit 31 homers again. Ron Gant, who turned 35 this month, hasn't slugged over .500 since 1996. Rico Brogna is, well, Rico Brogna -- a great hitting first baseman, if only he were a middle infielder.

The acquisition of Andy Ashby will certainly help a beleaguered rotation, and a full season of Scott Rolen will help the offense. It remains to be seen how effective Curt Schilling will be after off-season surgery, if youngster Randy Wolf can improve, of if veteran retreads Paul Byrd and Robert Person can be anything better than average. If things go well for the Expos and poorly for the Phillies, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phils slip to fourth in the division.

2. New York Mets
1999 Record: 97-66 (Second place)
Runs Scored: 853 (5th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 711 (4th in NL)

I'd love to put the Mets third, or even fourth, in the division, but frankly neither the Phillies nor the Expos are quite that good. The Mets aren't going to be nearly as good as they were last year, thanks to both aging players and several silly offseason moves, the worst of which was trading Octavio Dotel and Roger Cedeno for Mike Hampton and Derek Bell.

Dotel and Cedeno are both young, cheap, and getting better. Hampton is coming off a career year and is a free agent after the season, while Derek Bell was one of the worst players in all of baseball last season. The trade hurts them in both the long and the short term, which is just about the worst kind of deal a team can make. Throw in the swap of John Olerud for Todd Zeile and a four-year contract for Rey Ordonez, and it wasn't a very happy offseason in the Big Apple. Did I mention some decline from, if not the impending trade of, Rickey Henderson?

1. Atlanta Braves
1999 Record: 103-59 (First place)
Runs Scored: 840 (7th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 661 (1st in NL)

Another year, another division title. Didn't Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine decline last year? You certainly wouldn't know it from the team's 661 runs allowed, which was tops in the National League. With Houston moving out of the pitcher-friendly Astrodome, the Braves are a good bet to lead the league in that category once more. Yes, John Smoltz is out. But Maddux is Maddux, Kevin Millwood is very good, and the Braves once again have a very deep and talented bullpen, not to mention a bevy of pitching prospects.

On the other side of the ball, the top of their batting order is much improved with the additions of Quilvio Veras and Reggie Sanders, stolen from the Padres in exchange for Bret Boone and Ryan Klesko. Toss in perhaps the best player in the NL in Chipper Jones, plus Andruw Jones, a full year of Javy Lopez, and a healthy Brian Jordan, and you've got a nice offense to go along with all that pitching.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker looks forward to opening day so that he can continue his irrational love affair with the "fish dog." Say wha' at jmb@strikethree.com.