AL West: Down By the Bay Jason Michael Barker

The runaway freight train that is my series of prediction pieces today stops in the American League West, where only one thing is certain: the Anaheim Angels are not a good baseball team.

Beyond that, the division seems up for grabs. Texas has won it the past two years, thanks to a strong offense and just enough pitching. Seattle looks improved despite the loss of Ken Griffey Jr., and Oakland arrived on the scene last year with a potent young offense.

4. Anaheim Angels
1999 Record: 70-92 (Fourth place)
Runs Scored: 711 (13th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 826 (4th in AL)

I'm willing to excuse the Royals for losing 90 games last year because, in addition to having a horrible bullpen, they were at least a young team with some hope for the future. The Angels lost 90 games last year but don't have youth as an excuse: they were the fourth-oldest team in the American League in 1999, with an average player age of 30.1 years. There doesn't appear to be much help in the farm system, either.

It's probably a good bet that the rash of injuries that plagued Mo Vaughn, Tim Salmon and Jim Edmonds last season won't cost the Angels nearly as much in terms of games missed (Edmonds, Salmon) or performance (Vaughn) in 2000 as in 1999. That alone should improve an offense which, as you can see above, was a big problem last year. Throw in some improvement from Troy Glaus and the offense could be simply below-average rather than horrible.

The Angels actually had a decent pitching staff last season, led by an underrated bullpen group. Because relievers tend to be a fickle sort, I don't expect the pitching to be nearly as good as it was last year, particularly given a rotation which features Ken Hill and Tim Belcher.

3. Texas Rangers
1999 Record: 95-67 (First place)
Runs Scored: 945 (2nd in AL)
Runs Allowed: 859 (7th in AL)

It does seem a bit odd to pick the Rangers third -- after all, they've pretty much owned the division over the past two years, and the consensus is that they got the better end of the Juan Gonzalez trade. I don't see the Rangers falling off the proverbial cliff in 2000. I also don't see them winning 95 games again, although they should still win around 85.

The decline will come from a few places, the first of which is Rafael Palmeiro, who shouldn't be counted on to repeat his monster 1999 season. I also don't see Mike Lamb and/or Tom Evans replacing Todd Zeile's offense from last season, although they should be better on defense. Overall the offense won't suffer, however, thanks to the addition of Gabe Kapler and a full season of Ruben Mateo.

The big decline will come from the bullpen, which was one of the best in baseball last year. John Wetteland is a year older and more injury-prone, and Jeff Zimmerman was likely over his head in 1999. As a whole, the pen shouldn't be horrible, just closer to average. You know, regression to the mean and all that. And who knows what to expect from the rotation -- Kenny Rogers is getting on in years, Justin Thompson is perpetually injured, Rick Helling gave up 41 homers last year, and I'm far from sold on Darren Oliver.

2. Seattle Mariners
1999 Record: 79-83 (Third place)
Runs Scored: 859 (6th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 905 (12th in AL)

I've been picking the Mariners to win the AL West ever since 1995, so it's about time I ease up on the homerism. There is certainly some improvement to talk about here, however, particularly on the pitching side of things. There's so much pitching, in fact, that rumors abound that one of the M's six starters will be traded for an outfielder. It remains to be seen if that will actually happen, but it is clear there's more quality pitching in camp than any other time in club history. It also remains to be seen which way Lou Piniella will decide to ruin his bullpen, but that's for another time.

The Seattle offense should be solid as well with the addition of John Olerud, Mike Cameron and Mark McLemore, especially if anyone but Brian Hunter wins the starting left field job.

I don't really see any reason why Seattle shouldn't win the division. OK, so there are two: Piniella and Hunter. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners do win the division, but the fan in me says they'll find a way to mess things up.

1. Oakland Athletics
1999 Record: 87-75 (Second place)
Runs Scored: 893 (4th in AL)
Runs Allowed: 846 (6th in AL)

The A's made their run last year but fell short of a wild card berth -- this year they'll bypass that tomfoolery and simply win the division outright. Oakland really wasn't as young as many people thought they were last year, with veterans Matt Stairs, John Jaha, Tony Phillips and Randy Velarde all playing key roles. Still, the core of this team -- Eric Chavez, Ben Grieve and Miguel Tejada -- are all very young, and even Jason Giambi is only 29. John Jaha is getting on in years and an injury risk, but Billy Beane swiped Jeremy Giambi from the Royals just in case.

To be certain, there are some pitching questions. Kevin Appier hasn't been good for three years, Tim Hudson is no sure bet to repeat his 1999 magic, and Omar Olivares seems to pitch well despite poor peripherals.

In the end, however, the pitching will be good enough and the offense will be one of the top three in all of baseball next season, pushing the A's to their first division title since the Bash Brothers were striking fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers.

about the author

If Jason Michael Barker is anything, he's a damn fine left-field foul-pole umpire. If Bud Selig is willing to hire temps for the postseason, have him give Jason a jingle at jmb@strikethree.com.