Baseballhead:
Mild, Mild West

Michael Cox

Yeah, it's Baseballhead, where we think TV game-show mania has reached its logical conclusion with the addition of "Who Wants to Have Ten Bucks" to the WB's second season.

Last week we began our season predictions with a look at both Central divisions. And our astute readers responded, making note of not only my evil prognostications, but a couple of mental lapses. For example, Ken writes:

The Felix Martinez sucker punch was actually in 1998 (June 2nd). Of course, that doesn't mean that your statement is necessarily incorrect; if you polled random people they might indeed name Felix's shining moment as the Royals' most memorable for 1999. That's less an indictment of people's baseball knowledge than an indictment of how much the Royals suck.

Correct on every score, Ken. In fact, for some reason I transposed the Royals' pugilistic season (1998) with Rich Amaral's dream summer (1999). It could have been the raging head cold that controlled me completely, or it could have been Satan. We'll never know for sure.

And Charles echoes the sentements of more than a couple of correspondents, not to mention Peter Gammons:

I'm no Pirates fan, but your lack of respect for the scurvy bumble-bee colored team is a bit appalling. No, the Pirates are not primed for a pennant race, but they are CERTAINLY better than the hapless Cubs. The Pirates pitching staff alone makes them NL Central contenders, and then you have to factor in Giles-Kendall-Young-Ramirez etc. as a pretty decent hitting lineup. Yes, they have closer problems, and they probably aren't the best team in the division, but they are almost definitely wild card contenders.

Well, the thing is that people have been saying this about the Pirates for the past couple of seasons, as well. I agree that the potential is there. I also agree that the Cubs are hapless, although they were hapless in 1998 and managed to secure a wild card berth.

I'm also about the only person on my particular block who didn't pick the A's for first or second in the AL West in 1998, which raised the same kind of eyebrows. So, I stand on my record.

Moving on to the topic at hand, it's time to handicap the horse race in the two West divisions. Both are going to be barnburners, but the question is whether anyone will be good enough to not get clobbered in the playoffs.

The good news is that the Diamondbacks will be coming back with almost the same team that won the division last year. The bad news is that the Diamondbacks will be coming back with almost the same team that won the division last year. That Arizona benefited from the convergence of several career seasons is a dead horse that isn't going to get any more dead if I whack it a couple more times.

So, we'll move on to say that at least Travis Lee has nowhere to go but up, and that you can expect Randy Johnson to be Randy Johnson. However, eventually the folks in Phoenix will rue the existence of Steve Finley, and Matt Williams will continue his decline towards the usage of Denny's honored citizens' menu. There's still a competitive team there, however, and the division likely won't require more than 90 wins to top.

However, the Padres, who seem to have a plan, unfortunately won't see whether it works for another couple of years (see A's, Oakland, 1999). And if I were they, which I am not, I'd maybe try to help that plan along by peddling Trevor Hoffman while he's still seen as a top closer. At least they're looking towards the opening of their new ballpark in a few years, which is more than the Brewers have done, but I can't explain the Bret Boone/Ryan Klesko deal.

Speaking of new digs, Pac Bell Park looks like it may reward power hitters more than the former Candlestick, which is just what the doctor ordered, especially if that doctor's name is Barry Bonds. Add to that the possibility that Robb Nen will be effective once again and the fact that Charlie Hayes is no longer in town, and you can be fairly optimistic.

Well, hold on there, bucko. There's a good chance that J.T. Snow will look down and realize that like Wile E. Coyote, he can't walk on air. Their rotation is the Amazing Abused Arm Revue, and opponents are just as likely to hit 'em out of PBP as the home team.

Meanwhile in Denver, opponents are now more likely to hit 'em out than the home team, as an ill-advised move to "speed and defense" once again supplants the more logical move to "better all-around hitting." The Rockies aren't worried that they've had about the most unproductive offense in spring training, but they should be. Their pitching, while possibly slightly improved, may suffer if Pedro Astacio is deported for spousal abuse. But he's a good guy, I understand.

This leaves us with the Dodgers. Was 1999 a fluke? Well, not if you consider that Eric Karros actually had a career year just in time to stop being booed, Gary Sheffield almost earned his pay, and both their number one starter and closer performed as advertised. It was the non-superstars who generally underperformed, and those are the very guys that manager Davey Johnson has a reputation for inspiring.

Mark Grudzielanek (known around here as "the Steve Finley of shortstops") will not match his 1999 numbers, Shawn Green will find Dodger Stadium worse to hit in than an open-roofed SkyDome, Devon White is still on the roster, and shortstop is still a big question mark due to the fact that Alex Cora isn't nearly as cute as his brother. Then again, Adrian Beltre will probably improve.

So, the Dodgers will still flounder, but not to the extent they did last year. the projected standings of a tight race:

1. Diamondbacks
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Rockies

Over in the littlest division, the balance of power hasn't changed much. the Rangers and Mariners still see each other as their toughest rival, the Angels continue to be baffled by this strange and confusing game, and the A's keep rebuilding.

The only team we can really disregard this season is the Angels, who are now finding out what it means to be the part of a giant multinational conglomerate that the aforementioned conglomerate no longer wants. Add to that the fact that their starting lineup must be one of the most injury-prone in history and that they've not lifted a finger to replace the loss of their rotation, and that spells trouble with a capital 'T', and that rhymes with 'P', and that stands for pretty bad.

In fact, I could go on for an entire column just about what's wrong with the Halos, but in the end it just seems that Disney is waiting to sell.

Mariner fans could be commiserating with the folks in Anaheim, except for a few unexpected occurrences: Freddy Garcia, who came to town in the Randy Johnson trade, looked dominant in '99; Pat Gillick became the new GM, and actually made a series of good deals; Japanese closer Kazuhiro Sasaki did not run screaming to New York after seeing footage of the WTO riots.

Actually, I guess running to NYC would be like running to the riots.

In any case, the M's field a stronger team than they had in 1999, after leading the league in free agent signings this offseason. With upgrades at first (John Olerud), third (anybody but Russ Davis), the rotation (Aaron Sele) and bullpen (Sasaki, Arthur Rhodes), I can confidently say that the M's may be a good team in 2000. Oh, ticket sales are way down in the wake of losing the biggest single crowd attraction in modern baseball, but you can't win 'em all.

Of course, the Rangers have been looking at the Seattle moves with a wary eye, but they haven't any moss on themselves either. Wisely trading Juan Gonzalez before he did his own Wile E. Coyote move, the Rangers are in the happy position of being competitive while simultaneously grooming very good young players.

Unfortunately, they suddenly felt the need to acquire David Segui, who may now have the dubious honor of starting 120 games but losing the Gold Glove at his position to the guy who starts the other 42. Still, the Ranger offense should continue to be productive. However, it remains to be seen whether the rotation, led this year by the on-again, off-again Kenny Rogers, can do a good enough job to win Ivan Rodriguez another MVP.

Leaving the most enigmatic for last, the Athletics will either see their rebuilding phase come to fruition or will pack it in and threaten to move to Sacramento. Not picked to win the division by most statheads for the first time in three years, the A's actually had a great 1999 despite the sophomore slumps of Ben Grieve and A.J. Hinch.

Questions do remain: can John Jaha remain uninjured for a second consecutive season? Can Jason Giambi continue to produce? Can they make up for the loss of the good Kenny Rogers? Is Gil Heredia for real, or will he soon be throwing an abundance of arm-wrenching splitters? Is there a bullpen? And finally: Randy Velarde? Expect a good showing in another tight race.

If I have to predict a finish, it would be thus:

1. Rangers
2. Mariners
3. Athletics
4. Angels

And if the Angels could be fifth in this division, they would be. Next week we finish up with the Tale of Two Easts.

Michael Cox is forced to live the mild, mild AL West every day of the season. Make sure you tell him it isn't going to be so mild at Safeco Field at those wet, 35 degree Monday night games in April. Mail those virtual electric blankets to mc@strikethree.com.

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