AL Central: Cleveland Rocks

Jason Michael Barker

Thursday I rolled out my predictions for the National League West. I received only one complaint -- from, believe it or not, a Dodger fan who was upset that I had picked the Dodgers to win the division. There's a first time for everything, I suppose.

Speaking of a first time for everything, one of these years the Cleveland Indians are going to finish -- gasp! -- second in the AL Central. This isn't that year, however. Now that the suspense is gone, here's a look at how things will shake down in the division.

5. Minnesota Twins
1999 Record: 63-96 (Fifth place)
Runs scored: 686 (14th in AL)
Runs allowed: 845 (5th in AL)

It's the same old story in Minnesota -- another year, another rebuilding project. At what point do we consider the Twins no longer rebuilding, but simply playing very young players who either: a) Aren't ready for the majors, b) Aren't very good, or c) Both a and b? The Twins actually have four very good young players in their farm system in Michael Restovich, Matthew LeCroy, Michael Cuddyer and Bobby Kielty. But with the exception of LeCroy, who might stick at catcher this year, the group is a year or so away from helping the big club.

So what's in store for 2000? The Twins have the makings of a good rotation with Brad Radke, Eric Milton (the best pitcher nobody's talking about) and Joe Mays, who's coming off a strong rookie campaign. Manager Tom Kelly will likely fill the final two spots in the rotation with the likes of youngsters Jason Ryan, Mark Redman, or Dan Perkins. The bullpen will be worse off without Mike Trombley.

The Twins are going to have some serious problems scoring runs, however, and will likely be the worst offensive team in baseball this season, as they were in 1999. Playing David Ortiz over Doug Mientkiewicz at first base would help, but not nearly enough to overcome an extreme lack of power.

4. Detroit Tigers
1999 Record: 69-93 (Third place)
Runs scored: 747 (12th in AL)
Runs allowed: 882 (11th in AL)

I still think they got fleeced in the Juan Gonzalez deal, but in the short term (read: next year only) they should be better off for it. I also understand the idea of "star drawing power" in a new stadium, although I don't necessarily agree with it. Either way, Gonzalez will be a big boost to the Detroit offense, even if he doesn't have any runners to drive in. What, didn't I mention that the Tigers have a huge OBP problem?

Last year the team drew just 458 walks, dead last in the American League, and their .322 on-base percentage was better than only Anaheim's. Don't expect Gonzalez, who has never been a patient hitter, to improve on that number much either.

Pitching is still a problem as well, particularly a starting rotation which contains Hideo Nomo, Brian "cheater" Boehler, Dave Mlicki and the inconsistent Jeff Weaver. Sure would be nice to have Francisco Cordero in the bullpen instead of Todd Jones, but darn it if Cordero didn't wind up in Texas along with Gabe Kapler and Frank Catalanotto.

3. Kansas City Royals
1999 Record: 64-97 (Fourth place)
Runs scored: 856 (7th in AL)
Runs allowed: 921 (14th in AL)

The Royals were actually a much better team last year than their record would indicate: a horrific (although even that word doesn't do it justice) bullpen led to 30 blown saves and a 11-32 record in one-run games. If those close games broke about even, the Royals could have won close to 75 games last season instead of losing nearly 100.

A good young nucleus is in place -- Carlos Beltran, Carlos Febles, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and Mark Sweeney all had good years in 1999, and given their youth, all should be expected to improve next year as well. Throw in prospects Dee Brown and Mark Quinn (I'd love to include Jeremy Giambi here, but he was dealt to the A's for peanuts) and the Royals shouldn't have any problems scoring runs in 2000.

Pitching is still an issue, however, and ultimately will be the Royals' downfall this season. There are some good young arms that should improve the bullpen (Orber Moreno and Lance Carter to name two), and Kansas City also has some mid-level starter prospects with decent upside, but it remains to be seen if manager Tony Muser will be wise enough to break them in in middle relief rather than tossing them directly onto the fire.

2. Chicago White Sox
1999 Record: 75-89 (Fifth place)
Runs scored: 777 (10th in AL)
Runs allowed: 870 (10th in AL)

Is this the year the White Sox climb back to the .500 mark? Seeing as that would only require a six game improvement over last season, the answer is a resounding "perhaps." Where can we expect the improvement to come from?

First up is Paul Konerko, who should build on his solid 1999 and remind people why he was Minor League Player of the Year just a few seasons ago. Magglio Ordonez is still young enough to be improving, and nearly anyone other than Mike Caruso (who appears slated for AAA) would be a better hitter at shortstop. Finally, there's Frank Thomas -- I don't expect him to be quite back at his pre-1998 levels, but I do expect the power to return.

There might be some decline on the pitching staff, particularly from a bullpen that was likely over its collective head last season. At the same time, a full season of young starter Kip Wells will be an improvement over 1999 (although perhaps not if Cal Eldred is giving a spot in the rotation). Also watch out for finesse lefty Jim Parque, who got off to a good start last season but was hampered by a thumb injury over the last two months.

A final tip for all you fantasy leaguers out there: The White Sox just acquired 2B Jackie Rexrode from the Arizona. He's very young, an on-base machine (.422 career OBP in the minors) and a good basestealer to boot. He's also first in line for a job if Ray Durham gets moved to the outfield. Don't say you weren't warned.

1. Cleveland Indians
1999 Record: 97-65 (First place)
Runs scored: 1,009 (1st in AL)
Runs allowed: 860 (8th in AL)

As I said earlier, this isn't the year the Indians drop out of the top spot in the AL Central. I wouldn't be surprised if it's next year, however -- both the Royals and the White Sox are on the rise, and the Indians have some serious issues which need to be addressed. Manny Ramirez is a free agent after this season, Travis Fryman's body is falling apart (ditto Sandy Alomar Jr.), and Chuck Finley is getting older by the second. Dave Justice, Kenny Lofton, Roberto Alomar and Omar Vizquel aren't getting any younger, either.

They'll still win this year, however, and should do so quite handily. With the White Sox the only other team likely to finish at .500, 85 wins would be enough to win the division, but I fully expect the Tribe to win around 95 as they normally do.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is the only known human to drink the soda, "Big Red." Ask for tales of his other daredevil stunts at jmb@strikethree.com.