Baseballhead:
Central Beating

Michael Cox

Hey! What are you doing here? I specifically told the receptionist to keep panhandlers out of th-- oh, yes. It's time for Baseballhead. Sorry to push you like that.

Anyway, it's a good thing the season begins in a few weeks, because here's the kind of material I've had to work with this spring:

"He's going to hit the ball all over the field. He's going to put the ball in play, and he's going to play good first base for us." -- "Loquacious" Lou Piniella, waxing poetic over John Olerud.

"Whenever he's healthy, I'll be glad to pitch him. It could be May 1, It could be June 1. Whatever I say doesn't make any difference because he's not going to pitch until he's ready." -- Terry "Mr. Verbosity" Francona, giving us the exclusive inside skinny on Curt Schilling's arm.

"I think it's just spring training stuff." -- Joe "Man of Many Words" Torre offering a dissertation on Allen Watson's arm problems.

So thank the space aliens who populated Earth that it's time for "Baseballhead's Edjumacated Guesses" -- a series of MLB predictions that, while not left up to fate like Dave Paisley's "Magic 8-Ball" series, is just as likely to be based on uniform colors as good on-field play. You've been warned.

This week, we begin with the two Central divisions. Why? Because there are some eerie parallels between both leagues' heartlands -- mainly the one where most of the teams aren't very good. First, the AL Central.

Now, I could fill a paragraph full of reasons why the Royals are a good young team on the rise, or arguments that the White Sox are just one or two elements short of a pennant race. But it'd all be crap, and poorly disguised crap to boot.

The Royals are poster children for how speed and defense, even when combined with a crispy dollar bill, won't even buy you coffee at Denny's. Manager Tony Muser worries more about "respect" than about good on-field play. The thing most of us remember about their 1999 season was their dust-up with the Brawlin' Angels, featuring that Frank Martinez sucker punch. This team is treading water until they can find a new owner to clean house.

The Tigers are the only team who could be said to have some forward momentum, but "some," as compared to "none," still isn't enough. They might have been better off keeping the youngsters they dealt for Juan Gonzalez, who by mid-June ought to begin blaming his teammates for his lack of RBIs. This, of course, will serve him right for not praising his Rangers teammates after they did most of the work that earned him those two MVPs.

Meanwhile, Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Ron Schueler think they've got the 1992 Indians on their hands. Signing role-players to multi-year deals would be fine if they had some big guns to back them up. Unfortunately, not believing that a pinky toe injury can actually be painful has soured their relationship with the only guy people pay to see. I have a feeling The Big Hurt's orthopedic shoes are made for walkin', if you dig my vibe.

And speaking of the Tribe, what can be said that wasn't over the last five years Cleveland's been stomping their division flat? I mean, other than the fact that Manny Ramirez has suffered an almost criminal lack of respect by the so-called "working" press, or as we call them here, the "gorging themselves on free food and watching 'Friends' instead of the game" press.

Hmmm... I get this funny feeling I forgot someone.

Nahhh.

So, the pecking order in the AL Central is as follows:

1. Indians
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. I'm sure there's a fifth team...

Okay. Now that I've assured myself a landslide of hate mail from Minnesota (who am I kidding? They're harder on their team than I am), let's turn to the NL Central, where it's at least a little more interesting.

Yes, 2000 is Year O' The Stars in the AL Central! Look -- it's McGwire! Sosa! Griffey! Bagwell! Kendall (when healthy)! The Milwaukee sausage race guys!

In fact, I think the moment Bud Selig became so hot to bring "parity" to baseball was the precise moment he realized his team was the first to have its ass kicked in both leagues. The Brewers are an utter disaster, with only their ownership to blame. With a new ballpark in the pipeline, they are making no strides to improve for Miller Field, apparently intending to simply make more money off the hapless flotsam they call a team. At this point you can't even blame the players.

Not that the Pirates are going to fare much better. But hey -- now they've got a damn good pinch hitter! Unfortunately, the Bucs' move to pick up John Vander Wal may be that unfortunate step when a team thinks a career role player is ready to crack the starting lineup. Before this happens, someone should play them some game footage from the Orioles' 1998 season, featuring Rich Amaral.

However, having Jason Kendall back means a lot, as does the existence of Brian Giles. However, one good ex-Indian does not deserve another, as Wil Cordero's an ex-Indian for good reason.

One thing people haven't mentioned when talking about the recent bout of Cubs-mania in Chicago is the fact that all the city's other sports teams pretty much blow. If I have to pick between Sammy and the 1999-2000 Bulls, hell yes, I'll take Sammy. That's not to say Sammy's team is going to fare that much better, but having Kerry Wood back helps, and having Jim Riggleman gone helps Kerry Wood.

Still, the left-field drinking contests are likely to be the most exciting thing happening in Wrigley Field this season. Look for closer Rick Aguilera to crumble into a pile of dust on the mound in August.

After their almost-wild card-championship last year, the question in Cincinnati is, "can we repeat?" In fact, the question should be, "did we really do anything incredible in the first place?" The answer to the latter is perhaps, perhaps not. All I can say is that there's an awful lot of weight on Ken Griffey Jr.'s shoulders to improve the team.

And that's music to the ears of Jim Bowden, who will be happy that most fans won't be blaming him as they should if the team implodes. He has to know that he's taking a big gamble on Dante Bichette, and the smart money says the Reds aren't paying Bichette smart money. In fact, he almost cancels Griffey out. Bowden should have let the M's have Pokey Reese, so that Seattle would be disappointed by his lack of hitting. After Griffey, Sean Casey, and Barry Larkin, everything else is a question mark.

The other red-themed NL Central team has reaped a financial windfall in the past year and a half, and the Cards have Mark McGwire to thank when they can easily pony up the elephant bucks for a guy like Fernando Tatis, or take chances on Eric Davis and Darryl Kile.

Look for J.D. Drew to improve -- personally, I think all the booing affected him more than he (or Scott Boras) cares to admit. However, I can't believe it's been so long since Mac was last on the DL. You could almost hear his metatarsals spontaneously fracturing as he read the MLB report finding no positive anabolic effects from andro. Still, a decent rotation (if healthy) and some good supporting performances ought to keep the team in the upper half.

Now, the Astros -- there's a team who you'd think might be at the end of their run. Forced to trade Mike Hampton away and faced with the aging of most of their infield, the 'Stros move into Enron Field looking a bit less dominant than in the past couple of years.

Or that's what they'd like you to think.

Any team with Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Moises Alou, Jose Lima and Billy Wagner is decent to begin with. Then remember that the Mets gave them leadoff hitter Roger Cedeno and impressive P Octavio Dotel. Then realize that the team is shifting its focus to hitting just as they move into the new, hitter-friendly Enron (of course, next to the Astrodome, the Gulf of Mexico is hitter-friendly).

Get my drift?

So, the 2000 NL Central ends up thusly:

1. Astros
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Brewers (who, if there was any justice, would take on the Twins at the end of the season in the Bizarro World Series. Ticket prices are lower than regular season games, and loser gets the trophy.)

Michael Cox would be happy to coordinate the Bizzaro World Series, but he has a feeling he'd be the only fan in attendance. Assure him that you'd be there too if not for that, er, thing you have to take care of during the series at mc@strikethree.com. Whaddya mean the schedule hasn't been announced yet?

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