NL Offseason Report, Part II

Jason Michael Barker

Thursday we looked at the top eight teams in the National League in terms of offseason improvement. Absent from the list were the Cincinnati Reds, who at the time had yet to acquire The Greatest Player In Baseball (tm), Ken Griffey Jr., from Seattle. Now, the addition of Griffey would not have propelled the Reds to the top of my list, as there is still something to be said for acquiring Dante Bichette (and it isn't a nice thing).

With the Reds listed first for the sake of novelty, here's a list of the National League teams who either got worse or simply didn't improve this offseason.

Cincinnati
In: OF Dante Bichette, OF Ken Griffey Jr., OF Alex Ochoa, RHP Mark Portugal, OF Deion Sanders
Out: RHP Stan Belinda, OF Mike Cameron, RHP Juan Guzman, OF Jeffrey Hammonds, C Brian Johnson, RHP Brett Tomko, OF Greg Vaughn

Before the Griffey trade, I had the Reds near the bottom of my list; in other words, they were one of the teams that had gotten worse this offseason instead of better. Factoring Griffey into the equation, the Reds have indeed improved over the winter. As I said earlier, they aren't the most improved team in the league, but I'm willing to move them up to the top five, behind Atlanta, Colorado and St. Louis, but about even with the Phillies and Astros.

How much of a difference will Griffey make next season? In looking at Value Above Replacement Level (VORP) data over at stathead.com, Griffey was 36.7 runs better than Mike Cameron last season, or about three or four wins over the course of a season. That may not seem like much, but keep in mind the Reds fell one game short of the postseason last year. (If you're interested in VORP, check out Keith Woolner's work at www.stathead.com).

How much better will the Reds be in 2000? I actually think they're going to fall short of last season's 96 wins, but much of that isn't the fault of GM Jim Bowden. Rather, I'm expecting decline from Barry Larkin, possibly Pokey Reese and certainly the bullpen, and there are also some questions regarding their starting rotation.

Pittsburgh
In: OF Bruce Aven, OF Wil Cordero, IF Luis Sojo
Out: OF Brant Brown, RHP Brad Clontz, C Joe Oliver, 3B Ed Sprague

Talk about excitement! There are enough moves here to write an entire column, but for now I'll limit my comments to a paragraph. The Pirates did a nice job in swapping Brown for Aven, as the latter has much better plate discipline and hit .370 (OBP)/.444 (SLG) in a good pitcher's park last year. Letting Sprague go is a good sign as well, as it means super-prospect Aramis Ramirez should finally get the starting job. The Bucs might have been listed higher if not for the "addition" of Cordero, who at this point is costing Chad Hermanson an outfield job.

Florida
In: RHP Ricky Bones, OF Brant Brown, RHP Dan Miceli
Out: OF Bruce Aven, OF Todd Dunwoody, RHP Brian Meadows, 3B Kevin Orie

Losing Dunwoody and Orie is no big deal, but as I said above, the Aven-for-Brown swap is a net loss for the Marlins. I don't know what to make of Meadows for Miceli, however. Meadows is young and was probably rushed to the majors, but has two years of MLB experience in a good pitcher's park without much success, while Miceli is merely a decent reliever.

San Francisco
In: 3B Russ Davis, C Bobby Estalella, RHP Ken Ray
Out: RHP Chris Brock, 3B Charlie Hayes, C Brent Mayne, RHP Rich Rodriguez, UT F.P. Santangelo, C Scott Servais, RHP Jerry Spradlin, RHP Julian Tavarez

The Giants didn't lose any stars, but Brock, Mayne and Santangelo are all players who can help a team win so long as they aren't counted on for too much. Particularly Santangelo, who plays all over the field and gets on base at a good clip. Now the Giants have Davis, who can barely play one position and has no idea how to get on base, a no-hit catcher in Estalella, and journeyman minor leaguer in Ray. Hey, at least that new stadium is opening, right?

Arizona
In: RHP Brad Clontz, SS Luis Ordaz, RHP Mike Morgan
Out: RHP Andy Benes, RHP Gregg Olson, OF Dante Powell

The Diamondbacks were in something of a bind this offseason, coming off a very good year due to the contributions of veterans having career years. Should you trade the likes of Jay Bell, Matt Williams and Luis Gonzalez while their value is high and risk upsetting your fans, or keep the team together one more year and hope the old guys will continue to produce? Obviously they elected to go with the latter, so we'll see what happens.

Benes' signing in St. Louis means the D-Backs lose 200 solid innings, but they should be OK with the likes of Randy Johnson, Omar Daal, Todd Stottlemyre, Brian Anderson and Armando Reynoso. Morgan provides a bit of insurance, but obviously that's a policy they'd rather not have to cash in. Clontz can be a dominating reliever when he's on, but left-handers hit him very hard last season (1.244 OPS against). That could be just a small sample, or a warning of things to come.

San Diego
In: 2B Bret Boone, RHP Adam Eaton, 1B Ryan Klesko, RHP Carlton Loewer, RHP Brian Meadows, RHP Steve Montgomery, RHP Dan Serafini, 3B Ed Sprague, RHP Matt Whisenant
Out: RHP Andy Ashby, 1B Wally Joyner, OF Reggie Sanders, RHP Stan Spencer, 2B Quilvio Veras,

Huge losses all around for the Padres, who lost their top starter, leadoff man, and a solid outfielder in Sanders. Klesko's power will be a nice boost to the middle of the lineup, but it remains to be seen if he'll have any runners on base to drive in. Eaton is a good pitching prospect and should pay long-term dividends, but could probably use a year at AAA to polish his game.

Los Angeles
In: RHP Terry Adams, RHP Mike Fetters, OF Shawn Green, RHP Orel Hershiser, C Chad Kreuter, RHP Dan Naulty, RHP Gregg Olson, 3B Kevin Orie, UT F.P. Santangelo
Out: LHP Pedro Borbon, OF Raul Mondesi, RHP Ismael Valdes, 2B Eric Young

Getting Green for Mondesi is a good deal for the Dodgers, mostly because it rids the team of a player who really didn't want to be there (sound familiar?). In terms of on-the-field performance, I don't see a huge difference between the two, except that Green is a bit younger. Mondesi's numbers are going to look better out of Dodger Stadium, while Green's should decline a bit, which might lead people to think the Blue Jays got the better end of the deal -- remember to keep park effects in mind when evaluating the trade this season.

Moving on, the Dodgers didn't do so well in the Valdes and Young trade. Sure, Young doesn't hit for power, is 33 and coming off his best non-Coors year. Without him, however, the Dodgers will move SS Mark Grudzielanek (30 and coming off a career year) to second, with a host of scrubs (Jose Vizcaino, Alex Cora) splitting time at short. There's something of a perception that Valdes has had a disappointing career, but he's only 26 and has pitched over 1000 innings with a 3.38 ERA.

Milwaukee
In: RHP Juan Acevedo, C Henry Blanco, RHP Jimmy Haynes, SS Jose Hernandez, C Tyler Houston, RHP Curt Leskanic, IF Luis Lopez, RHP Jamie Navarro, RHP John Snyder, OF Mark Sweeney, RHP Jamey Wright
Out: 3B Jeff Cirillo, RHP Cal Eldred, RHP Scott Karl, LHP Mike Myers, RHP Hideo Nomo, C Dave Nilsson, OF Alex Ochoa, RHP Eric Plunk, RHP Bill Pulsipher, SS Jose Valentin, 2B Fernando Viña

Rough winter for Brewers' fans, who lost perhaps their two best players in Cirillo and Nilsson. Trading Viña to make room for multi-talented rookie Ronnie Belliard was a good move, but it came a year too late -- Viña's value was much higher after his .388 OBP 1998. Although Eldred, Nomo and Karl are a trio of mixed success, turning over three-fifths of your starting rotation for the likes of Navarro, Snyder and Wright is questionable at best.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker was once tossed as a Little League manager for using semaphore to relay signals. Suggest that an Aldus lamp might have been more subtle at jmb@strikethree.com.