Let's take a look at how the Reds' lineup has changed from last year, showing last year's OPS (On-base plus Slugging average) for each player. Note that the Red team total OPS last year was .794, the difference accounted for by all those at-bats accumulated by backups.

Position	1999 Roster	'99 OPS	2000 Roster	'99 OPS	Difference
C	Taubensee	.875	Taubensee	.875	.000
1B	Casey	.938	Casey	.938	.000
2B	Reese	.747	Reese	.747	.000
3B	Boone	.775	Boone	.775	.000
SS	Larkin	.810	Larkin	.810	.000
LF	Vaughn	.882	Bichette **	.844	-.038
CF	Cameron	.826	Griffey	.960	.134
RF	Hammonds	.870	Young	.856	-.014
	Average	.840	Average	.851	.010

It looks like their infield stays pretty much the same, but their outfield has undergone a total transformation. I've thrown Dimitri Young's name in there at right, but it could be any one of a number of other, less capable bats. I'd suspect that the .856 OPS you see in the table for 2000 is the maximum upside that the Reds will get out of that spot.

Over in left field we have the Pillsbury doughboy himself, Dante Bichette. The number I've put in for Bichette is his 1999 road OPS, as putting in anything from Coors would be a gross distortion. Interestingly enough, Bichette had one of his best road years ever in 1999. Over the last five years (including last year's numbers) his road OPS has been -- get this -- .735. Not a pretty sight. While I'd be open-minded to believing he's learned to hit a little better in thick air of late, I believe he'll be lucky to crack an .800 OPS in 2000.

So even with the generous numbers I've included for the corner outfielders, they're still a dropoff from last year, and Griffey just about makes up for the loss. If, as I suspect, the corner OF positions turn in a lot less offense than I've credited them with then Cincinnati will see a drop in run production, even with the addition of Griffey.

If, nay, when that happens, don't be surprised if you hear things like "Griffey's just not the 'team leader' we hoped for," and other such nonsense. The headlines already proclaim "Now Griffey Must Deliver!" Well, is he expected to be coach and cheerleader, too?Over on the Mariners' side, the picture looks like this:

Position	1999 Roster	'99 OPS	2000 Roster	'99 OPS	Difference
C	Wilson	.697	Wilson	.697	.000
1B	Segui	.823	Olerud	.890	.067
2B	Bell	.763	Bell	.763	.000
3B	Davis	.739	Guillen	.700	-.039
SS	Rodriguez	.943	Rodriguez	.943	.000
LF	Hunter	.581	McLemore	.729	.148
CF	Griffey	.960	Cameron	.826	-.134
RF	Buhner	.809	Buhner	.809	.000
DH	Martinez	1.001	Martinez	1.001	.000
	Average	.813	Average	.818	.005

The first big change is, well, at first. Crediting the 1999 Mariners with David Segui's numbers is overstating the case, as Segui missed some playing time and was traded with two months to go in the season. His replacements were absolutely woeful with the bat, so the improvement to a full season of John Olerud is even more dramatic than I show in the table.

Meanwhile, Mariner fans no longer have to wince when a hard grounder is pounded to third, as Russ Davis is gone. His likely replacement, Carlos Guillen, is a converted middle infielder who should have no problem making the defensive adjustment, but who is a question mark with the bat. Last year he was slated to be the Mariners' second baseman and leadoff batter, but a torn ACL in the first week ruined his season. I've pencilled him in for a .700 OPS, but he should do better. Even the lower number isn't much of a drop from Davis, though.

The big gain comes in left field, where most of a season of Brian Hunter could be improved upon by a crash test dummy. Mark McLemore is only a bit more useful than said CTD (+.148 OPS from Hunter), but even that is enough to compensate for the loss of Griffey (only a .134 drop to Cameron.)Sure, there are other factors. Cameron is at a stage of his career where he could turn it up a notch, especially leading off with Rodriguez, Olerud and Martinez hitting behind him. The Mariners could (and probably should) acquire a better hitting left fielder. But overall, for every player that gains a bit, there'll be another that loses a bit and it'll all even out in the end.

The bottom line is that both teams had good offenses last year and will continue to generate runs at a decent rate. The key will be what they have done with their pitching staffs. The Mariners have been on a veritable pitching acquisition rampage, picking up Aaron Sele, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Arthur Rhodes and now Brett Tomko. In contrast, the Reds have lost Juan Guzman and Tomko. I don't think that signing Mark Portugal is quite going to compensate...

about the author

Dave Paisley was the originator of the idea to play "Walk This Way" whenever a home team batter earns a base on balls. Blame "Steal My Sunshine" on him too at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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