Hitter/Anti-Hitter ProfilesA couple of days ago I asked the question "Is Pedro (Martinez) really the anti-(Brian) Hunter?" I based that question on data demonstrating how pitchers and hitters match up against league average. Brian Hunter, the worst regular hitter in the American League last year, hits about as well against the average pitcher as the average hitter does against Pedro Martinez. Confusing? Maybe, but I thought I'd take a look at a few of the best pitcher/worst hitter and worst pitcher/best hitter matchups in each league to see how they rate against each other.

If you check out my previous articles on the subject, you'll see that I was looking at the performance of hitters and pitchers not only overall, but in particular situations. The table below shows the major league totals and averages for all at-bats for the pitch count at which they were resolved (i.e., the hitter made an out, walked or got a hit.) Note that the MLB average On-Base Percentage (OBP) was .342 and slugging (SLG) was .434 for an OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) of .776.
1999 MLB Average Pitcher
Count PA %PA AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS/MLB
Average
Total 185,028 100% .271 .342 .434 .776 0%
First Pitch 23,579 13% .338 .364 .538 .902 16%
Ahead 75,717 41% .208 .216 .314 .530 -32%
Even, Not 1P 39,410 21% .287 .423 .468 .891 15%
Behind 46,322 25% .346 .479 .588 1.067 38%
Two Strikes 84,432 46% .192 .268 .298 .566 -27%

OPS/MLB Average: Difference between pitchers' OPS against for that particular count and the MLB average OPS against of .776. For hitters, the positive percentages become negative and vice versa.
Even, Not 1P: Counts of 1-1 and 2-2.

First up, it's the Hunter-Martinez showdown. The following chart shows their performance relative to league average. Note that negative numbers are good for pitchers (i.e. giving up less offense than average) and bad for hitters (making less offense than average.)

Looking at the numbers, it's pretty easy to make the case that Brian Hunter is, indeed, the anti-Pedro. Overall, Hunter matches Martinez in all categories pretty closely. So think of how good Pedro was last year, then invert that, and that's how bad Hunter was. Even worse, the numbers above represent the average of Hunter's season. The last two months he struggled to budge his OPS over .400. That, of course, means nothing to arbitration hearing knuckleheads, who had the nerve to award him a $700,000 raise on Saturday. Sheesh.

On to another matchup. This time the hapless Mariner/Ranger/future Red Sock Jeff Fassero is the pitcher, while the hitter is the Mariners' class act DH, Edgar Martinez.

The match here isn't so great. Fassero gets beat up across the board relative to the league average, except when he's behind. Meanwhile, Martinez is exceptional when hitting the first pitch, punishes pitchers horribly when they get behind and is tough as nails with two strikes on him. So here we have a hitter and pitcher pair that aren't mirror image twins.

Much the same can be said of my first NL pairing, the amazing Randy Johnson against the now-overpaid Rey Ordonez. Consider the following chart:

These two are all over the map. Johnson gave up a total OPS of only .601 (.266 OBP/.335 SLG), while Ordonez bashed the horsehide to the tune of .636 (.319/.317) However, Ordonez is poor on hitting the first pitch and really awful at hitting even when the pitcher is behind in the count. (The average hitter hits when he's ahead for a 1.067 OPS, Ordonez for a whopping .652.)Johnson, on the other hand, is unhittable when he gets ahead or has two strikes on a hitter, giving up 30% to 40% less offense.

The final example I want to show is the 1999 National League's answer to Jeff Fassero - the Dodgers' Carlos Perez. Sure, he didn't manage to get in as many innings as Fassero (let's face it, what pitcher with a 7.00+ ERA does?) but he's the nearest we have outside of Colorado. I searched a little to find a comparable anti-Perez, and came up with the Astros' (and now the Red Sox') Carl Everett.

What's remarkable about Perez is that he was pretty close to average except in one type of situation: 1-1 or 2-2 counts. There he gave up a massive 1.409 OPS, including 12 of his 23 home runs. And lest you think this is perhaps a small sample, it was 22% of the 400 or so batters he faced. Everett, meanwhile, was death on the first pitch, something he managed to put in play 15% of the time -- 3% of his plate appearances more than the average player. Other than those two unusual circumstances, Perez and Everett are close anti-matches.

I'll be taking a look at some more profiles and matchups as we approach the season, and if there are any of your favorite (or otherwise) players you'd like to see profiled, feel free to ask (or beg, or plead).

about the author
Dave Paisley is confident he can get John Rocker to spend his spare time appearing in the Strikethree.com Little Theatre's spring production of "La Cage Aux Folles." You might suggest that it could be easier to get Chad Curtis at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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