What they are telling you is, in all likelihood, factually correct. The point they miss is whether the information is useful or relevant. Even in the case where it's potentially useful, the informed fan really needs to know how Billy-Bob rates relative to his peers. How well does the average major league player perform in those same set of oddball circumstances, and is Billy-Bob better or worse?So the first thing I want to do is develop a baseline performance level and look at a few players in that light. Consider all of major league hitters last season. They collectively batted .271 with a .342 on base percentage and a .434 slugging percentage. That's the basic yardstick from which all other evaluations should flow.

To hark back to our baseball commentators, one of their favorite tricks is to tell you how Billy-Bob does when the ball-strike count is in a certain range. They'll tell you how fantastic a hitter he is when he's ahead in the count. Did you ever wonder how well the average major leaguer hits when he's ahead? Consider the following table. Here's a look at the profile of the average major league hitter in 1999 for the significant groupings of ball-strike count when the plate appearance was resolved. The stats show the number of plate appearances sin that category, the percentage of the total, batting average, On-Base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Average (SLG), OPS (OBP+SLG) and finally the measure of success of the batter relative to the overall average, using OPS as the measure of success.

MLB 1999	PA	%PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS/MLB Average
Total	185,028	100.0%	.271	.342	.434	.776	---
First Pitch	23,579	12.7%	.338	.364	.538	.902	+16%
Ahead	46,322	25.0%	.346	.479	.588	1.067	+38%
1-1 and 2-2	39,410	21.3%	.287	.423	.468	.891	+15%
Behind	75,717	40.9%	.208	.216	.314	.530	-32%
Two Strikes	84,432	45.6%	.192	.268	.298	.566	-27%

The table shows that one in eight (12.5%) of plate appearances were resolved on the first pitch, and at a higher degree of success for the batter than average (16% higher OPS than average.) Note that this category includes intentional walks, which is how come the OBP is higher than the batting average.

When the average batter gets ahead, his performance jumps 38% higher than average. A .776 OPS hitter becomes a 1.067 OPS hitter when he has the pitcher in the hole. Conversely, when he gets behind he loses 32% relative to average, dropping to a lousy .530 OPS (or Rey Ordonez on a good day, as we like to refer to those kind of numbers).

Note that the first four categories are mutually exclusive and add up to 100% of plate appearances. The last line, Two Strikes, overlaps with all of the other categories, though, as it includes some 3-2 (ahead), 2-2 (even) and 0-2 and 1-2 (behind) plate appearances.

SO if that's the average player, what do some real players look like by comparison? Do those trends hold constant over good and bad hitters? Contact hitters and sluggers?My first notion for looking at this was from the point of view of a poor hitter, and in my neck of the woods they don't come any poorer than Brian Hunter. So here's Brian's profile.

Brian Hunter	PA	%PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS/MLB Average	OPS/Own Average
Total	576	100%	.232	.281	.301	.582	-25%	---
First Pitch	51	9%	.275	.275	.392	.667	-26%	+15%
Ahead	130	23%	.345	.431	.496	.926	-13%	+59%
1-1 and 2-2	119	21%	.263	.387	.293	.679	-27%	+17%
Behind	276	48%	.167	.167	.207	.373	-30%	-36%
Two Strikes	284	49%	.174	.232	.201	.433	-23%	-24%

Note there's an extra column, because I wanted to see how a hitter's profile varied relative to his own average as well as league average. The first number to note is his OPS relative to the ML average -- 75% in this case. That sets Hunter firmly in the lowest rungs of everyday players. The next most-important numbers are in the right-hand column: his personal profile. Overall, the numbers correlate very well with the average hitter, with the exact same trends. Hunter is within a couple of percent of the average profile with the only exception being ahead in the count.

Surprisingly to me, Hunter is able to conclude a plate appearance while ahead in the count almost as much as the average player (23% relative to 25%) but he does end up behind much more (48% to 41%.) Note than when behind in the count, his OPS is a perfectly dreadful .373. Makes that league-average .530 look pretty good by comparison.

The next player I wanted to look at was an anti-Hunter, with a high OBP and power. Again, there's one right at home here in Seattle -- Edgar Martinez. Here's his profile.

Edgar Martinez	PA	%PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS/MLB Average	OPS/Own Average
Total	599	100%	.337	.444	.554	.998	+29%	---
First Pitch	33	6%	.433	.485	.933	1.418	+57%	+42%
Ahead	184	31%	.484	.647	.865	1.512	+42%	+52%
1-1 and 2-2	162	28%	.286	.444	.452	.897	+1%	-10%
Behind	220	37%	.268	.268	.382	.650	+23%	-35%
Two Strikes	304	51%	.246	.336	.369	.705	+25%	-29%

First thing to note is that Martinez is 29% better than league average in OPS. The second is that he rarely concludes an at bat on the first pitch -- just 6% of the time -- half the average. This is directly due to his patience, of course. He'll take the first pitch more often than not. Note that when he does decide to swing, he gets full value.

Like the rest of the league, though, Martinez becomes mortal when he gets behind in the count. But that only happens 37% of the time rather than the 41% for the average player.

Finally, I thought it would be instructive to see how that ultimate slugger, Mark McGwire, fits in. Here are his numbers.

Mark McGwire	PA	%PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS/MLB Average	OPS/Own Average
Total	654	100%	.278	.425	.697	1.122	+45%	---
First Pitch	96	15%	.405	.510	1.051	1.561	+73%	+39%
Ahead	196	30%	.321	.546	.786	1.332	+25%	+19%
1-1 and 2-2	135	23%	.321	.578	.940	1.518	+70%	+35%
Behind	227	35%	.194	.194	.432	.626	+18%	-44%
Two Strikes	280	43%	.144	.300	.380	.680	+20%	-39%

After noting that he's 45% better than league average, you'll notice that he is much more likely to end a plate appearance on the first pitch, 3% more than average. Lots of times those at bats end with a fan souvenir -- sixteen times last year, to be precise. When he gets behind in the count (which is even less often than Martinez) Mac becomes mortal, too, sporting a measly .626 OPS, a mere 44% worse than his own average OPS, but still 18% better than the average major leaguer in the same situation.

So there's a look at some of the behind-the-scenes numbers. I'll be revisiting the topic occasionally with some hitters of interest, and also doing some pitcher profiles. Be sure to let me know if you have any favorite players that you'd like me to take a look at.

about the author

Dave Paisley has successfully become Strikethree.com's mole in the Reds organization after obtaining a job carrying Jim Bowden's ego. Let him know that this is how Bud Selig started at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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